This week the PGA Tour starts the California swing with The American Express with the three course rotation at PGA West in La Quinta. I had my second week in a row with a close finish coming up short as JJ Spaun couldn’t get it done for me last Sunday, missing the playoff by a stroke. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
PGA West Stadium Course (All Rounds)
Par 72, 7187 yards, Pete Dye designed, highest birdie+ % from the fairway for any course on tour, toughest of the three courses but still pretty easy compared to tour average, Par 5s are much longer and harder than the other two courses (some of the most difficult to reach in two on tour), very tough Par 3s, average fairways that get narrow at the landing areas, over 90 bunkers and a lot of water and dormant grass if golfers miss wildly off the tee, water in play on seven holes, less than driver on some holes with some forced layups, rough is pretty easy to make it easier for the Pro-Am golfers, lowest sand save percentage of any course on tour, small greens and huge bunkers (including the huge 20 feet deep bunker on 16 that is the fifth-toughest greenside bunker on tour), overseeded POA greens
PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course (Rounds 1-3)
Par 72, 7147 yards, one of the top ten easiest courses on tour every year, all the Par 5s are reachable, average to large fairways with lots of bunkers and water, rough isn’t very thick, undulating multi-tiered large greens, overseeded POA greens, water in play on five holes, around 90 bunkers, there’s been multiple 59s shot on this course
La Quinta Country Club (Rounds 1-3)
Par 72, 7060 yards, one of the top three easiest courses on tour, tree-lined average sized fairways, 82 bunkers, water in play on seven holes, average speed greens with a little bit of trouble around them, average sized POA greens
Tournament Notes
- Formerly known as the Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge and Bob Hope Classic
- Three-course rotation of this event with a 54-hole cut and the shitty Pro-Am format that makes this thing pretty much unwatchable till Sunday, since it takes forever with 6 hour rounds
- Course setup in rounds 1-3 easier since normal people (usually a bunch of executives from PGA Tour sponsors, won’t see all the celebrities you see at Pebble) have to play with the pros with very low rough and easy pin locations
- Birdiefest, the winner of this event has never been worse than -20. To quote Jon Rahm, this is a “shit setup and a fucking putting contest”
- Longer players won’t hit drivers as often here
- A lot of long shots win this event (other than Rahm when he won in 2018 and 2023) with guys over +10000 winning much more often than expected here
- 14 of the last 16 winners here have played in at least one of the two Hawaii events the year that they won
- 10 of the last 12 winners here have played this event before the year they won
- 9 of the last 13 winners have had a T15 in one of their last seven starts prior to winning here
- 7 of the last 12 winners here played the Sony Open the week prior to winning, 5 of them made the cut
- TV broadcast of this event is fucking awful, arguably worse than Pebble Beach with the Stadium Course being the only one with Shotlink and TV cameras
- Because only the Stadium Course has Shotlink data, all SG data historically is from just that course, besides scoring (birdie+, etc)
- There is a historical advantage of starting at La Quinta first but this is partially cause the best players start here since then they’re on TV at the Stadium Course on Saturday
- 80% of all Par 4s on these courses are in the 350-450 yard range
Key Stats
Approach, Good Drives, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (23.5% on the Stadium Course)
Field
156 golfers – Decent field strength with some stars at the top of the board
Defending Champion: Nick Dunlap (-29)
Runner Up Last Year: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-28)
One and Done: Harry Hall
One and Done Considerations: Finau, Hall, Spaun
Players
Tony Finau: 9500: +2800 – One of the top players in the field, 25,16,40,4,14,MC,49 finishes here, 15,23,13,16,12,MC,5,3,8,17 finishes in his last ten events, 4th in Approach, 61st in SG: OTT, 16th in Good Drives, 41st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring, 43rd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 33rd in Sand Saves, 4th in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 20th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdie+ Gained
Harry Hall: 8800: +4500 – This guy’s gonna win soon and has been on fire to start the season, MC,41,47 finishes here, 10,8,14,13,9,35,MC,24,1,12,31 finishes in his last eleven events, 32nd in Approach, 116th in SG: OTT, 146th in Good Drives, 103rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 54th in Sand Saves, 1st in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Kurt Kitayama: 8700: +3500 – Pops in my model with a fantastic tee to green game but his putting is one of the worst in the field, MC here in 2022 in his only time playing this event, 37,5,9,25,MC,6,41,34,31 finishes in his last nine events, 12th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 26th in Good Drives, 15th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 25th in Par 3 Scoring, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 45th in Sand Saves, 27th in SG: ARG, 152nd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 54th in Birdie+ Gained
JJ Spaun: 8600: +6000 – Last week he par’d the Par 5s on 9 and 18 on Sunday to miss the playoff by a stroke, 3,MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last twelve events, 25,MC,MC,51,MC,50 finishes here, 1st in Approach, 76th in SG: OTT, 60th in Good Drives, 71st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 27th in Par 5 Scoring, 12th in Sand Saves, 69th in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained
Mac Meissner: 7400: +7500 – Playing pretty good golf since getting on the PGA Tour and pops in my model, missed the cut here last year his first time playing this event, 21,27,25,37,MC,12,49.16,20 finishes in his last nine events, 7th in Approach, 47th in SG: OTT, 24th in Good Drives, 51st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 33rd in Par 3 Scoring, 31st in Par 4 Scoring, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 59th in Sand Saves, 87th in SG: ARG, 97th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 53rd in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (15%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Because of the 54 hole cut, missed cuts aren’t quite as detrimental to lineups, so being more aggressive with higher upside plays are a smart idea this week on DraftKings
- First round leaders typically will not start on the Stadium Course
- Showdown slates and some possible matchups might have some advantages based on the course golfers are on that day
Bets
Outrights
.4u Tony Finau (+2800)
.3u Kurt Kitayama (+3500)
.3u Harry Hall (+4500)
.2u JJ Spaun (+6000)
.2u Mac Meissner (+7500)
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