The college football season concludes tonight with a great matchup between the #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the #8 Ohio State Buckeyes to end the first expanded twelve team College Football Playoff.
The Buckeyes had a very good season, taking two losses, one being a 32-31 loss on the road to Oregon, who was the top team in the country, in the biggest Big Ten game of the year, and one huge 13-10 loss at home to Michigan (who had a horrible year) to close out the regular season. That loss to the Wolverines seems to have reinvigorated this team completely. Since missing the Big Ten Championship because of that loss, they’ve won both of their playoff games in blowout fashion. In the first round they crushed #9 Tennessee with a 42-17 win at home at The Shoe. Ohio State avenged their loss to Oregon in the regular season with a complete thumping last week at the Rose Bowl against the #1 team in the nation, winning 41-21 in the quarterfinal on New Year’s Day in a complete dud of a game with the Buckeyes getting out to a 34-0 lead in the first half to give the Ducks their first loss of the year and end their season. Ohio State won the Cotton Bowl in the Semifinals, being Texas 28-14, but that game ended up being a lot closer than that score showed. With 2:13 seconds left in regulation, Jack Sawyer, the best defensive player in the nation caused a fumble and took it all the way back 83 yards for six. If the Longhorns had scored there, that’s a whole new game.
Ohio State was elite this season on both sides of the ball. They ranked eleventh in the nation offensively, scoring an average of 36.4 points per game. Will Howard threw for an average of 263.4 yards per game and 2.4 passing touchdowns, while the Buckeyes rushing attack average another 2.1 touchdowns on the ground and 169.1 yards per game.
The Buckeyes had the best defense in the country, allowing an average of only 12.1 points per game. They gave up just 152.4 passing yards and only 92.2 rushing yards, allowing just 0.4 touchdowns in the air and 0.9 on the ground per game.
Notre Dame had a great season at all. Their only loss on the season was a shocker, losing to a MAC team at home, Northern Illinois, 16-14 in Week 2 of the season. After that loss they rolled though, with four ranked wins in the regular season. In the first week of the Playoff, they beat #10 Indiana 27-17 at home in South Bend, and then last week beat #2 ranked Georgia 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl. Their semifinal game at the Orange Bowl against Penn State was an instant classic. It was a very low scoring game in the first three quarters before an electric fourth quarter that saw both teams score two touchdowns in a tied game. Drew Allar through a brutal interception for Penn State late in the game and with 7 seconds left, Mitch Jeter drilled a field goal that looked wide right until it drifted through the uprights to send the Irish to the National Championship.
On both sides of the ball, the Fighting Irish have been elite this season. They had the fourth highest scoring offense in the nation, scoring an average of 37.7 points per game. They were more of a run heavy offense, led by one of the best running backs in the country, Jeremiyah Love, as a team averaging 217.5 yards and 3 touchdowns per game on the ground. Riley Leonard passed for an average of 189.1 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in the air per game.
Notre Dame’s defense was the second best in the country, allowing an average of only 13.6 points per game. They gave up an average of 167.4 passing yards, and 0.9 passing touchdowns per year while allowing an average of 127.9 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns on the ground per game.
I know that last week’s semifinal against Ohio State was close, but I do think the Buckeyes are the far better team here. I have a big pool that I’m guaranteed to win if Ohio State covers. Not only am I letting that ride, but I’m doubling down here with 1.5 units on the Buckeyes. They’re better at every single position and in every facet of the game than Notre Dame is, and I don’t see the Fighting Irish keeping this within two touchdowns.
These have been two of the best defenses in the country this season which would typically be a good spot for an under, but the total is so low on this game at 45.5, that I’ll just stay off the total. I’d slightly lean the over at that number, but not enough to bet it.
I also like a couple player props here. I think Will Howard continues to sling it, and I’ll take his passing yards over 247.5 for half a unit. I also think the only way that Notre Dame could stay in this game since their passing game isn’t great is for their running game to get going early and consistently. I’ll take Jeremiyah Love over 45.5 rushing yards for half a unit. That’s a low enough number that I think he could hit that while the I considered a few TD scorers, especially TreVeyon Henderson and Jeremiah Smith, but I’ll stay off those.
Bets
1.5u Ohio State -8.5 (-112)
.5u Will Howard over 247.5 passing yards (-114)
.5u Jeremiyah Love over 45.5 rushing yards (-114)
Record: 197-211-9 (-34.5 units)
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