This week the PGA Tour heads to history Torrey Pines in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open with an early Wednesday start. Let’s pick the winner for the third time in four years!
Course Breakdown
South Course (All rounds): Par 72, 7756 yards, one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, the longest regular course (non-major) on the PGA Tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, seven of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yards, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590 yards so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in two, off the tee golfers will see narrow tree-lined fairways with a lot of bunkers and even thinner, only about 53% of fairways are hit on average here every year (vs. tour average ~62%), rough is pretty thick and gnarly, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors righties that hit a cut off the tee, average to small sized POA (the only pure POA greens on tour, with most of the other courses we POA greens being blended) greens that are multitiered with undulation and false fronts that are very quick, a lot of the greens are narrow in width and longer front to back, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick but most holes leave an opening in front of the green so golfers have a chance to run up their approach shots with proper placement, tall rough, won’t be as tough as the setup was for the US Open
North Course (Only round 1 or 2): Par 72, 7258 yards, no player has shot their round over par here and won since 1983, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and there is a drivable Par 4 (really need to score on these five holes to even make the cut), off the tee golfers will see average sized fairways with thick-ish rough with some bunkers and trees, but a lot less than the South course, larger bentgrass greens with bunkers guarding them, no shot tracker, significantly lower driving accuracy here (~50% vs. tour average ~62%), higher GIR % here (~72% vs. tour average ~66%)
Both: Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, across both courses: seven of the eight Par 3s are longer than 200 yards, six or seven long Par 4s of 400-450 yards each round, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds
Tournament Notes
- This tournament is running from Wednesday-Saturday instead of the usual Thursday-Sunday to not compete with the NFL Conference Championship rounds
- The last four winners here all showed good form early in the season. Pavon had a T7 two weeks prior, Homa had three T15s in his first four events of 2023, List had three T30s in his first four events, and Reed had two T6s in his first three events.
- 15 of the last 18 winners here had a previous T10 at this event (beside Rahm and Pavon who won in their first starts here and Scott Stallings)
- 10 of the last 11 winners made at least one start in the calendar year prior to their win
- 11 of the last 19 winners finished that season T30 in Driving Distance and 10 of the last 18 winners have finished inside the T25 for the year (Rose was just outside of that at T28). The ones that didn’t had to putt lights out to win
- 8 of the top 12 finishers last year, 5 of the top 10 (all of the top 4) finishers in 2023, all of the top 10 finishers in 2022, 7 of the top 9 finishers in 2021 and all of the top 11 finishers in 2019 gained in proximity from 200+ yards
- No winner has ever shot over par on the North Course since 1983
- Good players win here. There has only been 3 shitty winners here in the last 19 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014, Ben Crane in 2010 and Luke List in 2022
- Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach (South Course): 200+ yards (26.2%)
Field
152 golfers – Not a great strength field
Defending Champion: Matthieu Pavon (-13)
Runner Up Last Year: Nicolai Hojgaard (-12)
One and Done: Tony Finau
One and Done Considerations: Finau, Matsuyama, Greyserman
Players
Hideki Matsuyama: 10700: +1300 – Easily the best player in the field and playing fantastic golf including a win a couple weeks ago at the Sentry which was his second win in his last five events, 16,1,46,9,1,66,MC,23,6,8,35,38,7,6,12,1 finishes in his last 16 events, really solid course history with 13,9,30,53,45,3,12,33,MC,MC,16 finishes here, 8th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 85th in Driving Distance, 26th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 97th in Par 5 Scoring, 40th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 55th in Birdie+ Gained, 14th in Bogie Avoidance
Tony Finau: 10200: +2500 – Going right back to him this week after his missed cut at the American Express, has elite course history here with 6,9,MC,2,6,13,6,4,18,24 finishes, MC,15,23,13,16,12,MC,5,3,8,17 finishes in his last eleven events, 2nd in Approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 61st in Driving Distance, 100th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 75th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 49th in Proximity 200+ yards, 5th in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 29th in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogie Avoidance
Max Greyserman: 9700: +2500 – First in my model this week and he’s playing great right now with three T7 finishes in his last four events and four in his last eight, missed the cut here his first time here last year, 7,24,4,2,28,33,2,2,21,26,31,21 finishes in his last twelve events, 84th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 74th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 38th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance
Kurt Kitayama: 8700: +4000 – Playing well and I’m right back on him this week at a course that I think fits him better than last week, missed the cut both of his times here in 2023 and 2022, 58,37,5,9,25,MC,6,41,34,31 finishes in his last ten events, 10th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 30th in Driving Distance, 18th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 20th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 146th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 45th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance
Luke Clanton: 8500: +5000 – Still playing really well as an amateur, first time playing this event, MC,2,50,5,MC,37,2,10,41 finishes in his nine PGA Tour starts, 10th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Distance, 96th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 145th in SG: ARG, 45th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 55th in Bogie Avoidance, do not take him in One & Done formats since he will make $0 regardless of finish
JJ Spaun: 7900: +6000 – He’s still playing in good enough form that I’m going to keep riding him, some good finishes here in the middle of a bunch of missed cuts with MC,MC,34,MC,30,MC,23,9 finishes here, 29,3,MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last 13 events, 1st in Approach, 80th in SG: OTT, 50th in Driving Distance, 38th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 17th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 29th in Proximity 200+ yards, 63rd in SG: ARG, 37th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Stack guys on the North course for Showdown slates on DraftKings and target North course golfers for first round leader bets, since its the easier course and even more so, the guys that start on Hole 1 on the North course, since there’s a nice birdie streak possibility with a stretch of easy holes from 9-12
- Look to live bet guys that start on the South course after round 1 as they should be a few strokes back from the guys that start on the North course and you’ll be able to get nicer odds vs. pre-tournament
- I hit the winner on this event two years in a row, hitting Max Homa at 22:1 in 2023 and cashing in on Luke List in 2022 at 80:1
Bets
Outrights
1u Hideki Matsuyama (+1300)
.5u Tony Finau (+2500)
.5u Max Greyserman (+2500)
.3u Kurt Kitayama (+4000)
.2u Luke Clanton (+5000)
.2u JJ Spaun (+6000)
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