Spyglass Hill Golf Course – Monterey Peninsula, CA
The PGA Tour has a loaded field this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which is a no cut elevated event at this historic course.
Course Breakdown
Pebble Beach Golf Links (All Rounds): Par 72, 6972 yards, fairways aren’t as wide and rough is a little thicker than usual already because the USGA is already starting to get it ready for the US Open, smallest greens on the PGA Tour, two Par 5s are reachable by all golfers, one will barely be reachable by any golfer, one reachable for long hitters, Par 4s here are a lot shorter than average with six Par 4s under 400 yards, course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, wind strongly effects how difficult this course plays, above average size fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes, annually the course with shortest average drive on Tour (268 yards vs. 284 yards average) and fewest amount of drives over 300 yards (17%), driving accuracy here is higher than tour average (~72% vs. ~62%), rough isn’t very penal since it is playable to the shitty amateurs in the Pro Am (lowest proximity on tour from the rough), out of bounds comes into play on almost half the holes, very small POA greens (half size of tour average and smallest greens on the PGA Tour) that have the lowest putts made % on tour (second lowest 5-10 feet, lowest 10-15 feet, third lowest 15-25 feet), lots of bunkers and false fronts around the greens
Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Rounds 1-2): Par 72, 7050 yards, has played more difficult than Pebble nine of the last twelve years, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and 17 is a reachable Par 4, coastal sandy areas on the first few holes but the course then moves inland, lot of trees on this course so wind could be less of a factor but it’s a harder course if it isn’t windy at Pebble, average sized fairways with just a few bunkers, lot of trees and some water if golfers miss the fairway, slightly larger POA greens than Pebble (still the fifth smallest on tour) but with a lot more slope and undulation, will have ShotLink data this year for the first time
Tournament Notes
- Thankfully this year this is an “signature” event again with no cut and a smaller field, with the Pro-Am cut down to just two rounds and Monterey Peninsula out of the course rotation
- This tournament is typically the worst to watch on TV all season because of the stupid Pro-Am with rounds taking 6+ hours and the annoying celebrities with their shitty golf shots being featured more than the PGA players – this year with the cut down field, the Pro-Am cut down to just two rounds and just a two course rotation instead of three (I don’t give a fuck to watch fucking Bill Murray’s swing get analyzed)
- Weather is a big factor here, in good weather these are all easy courses but in bad weather they get very difficult so lot of variability in this tournament
- Course history is very important for this event since its typically so different with it taking so long with all the celebrities and ridiculous rounds, it takes a different toll to deal with that on a weekly basis. There will be a lesser effect to that this year again with the Pro-Am being just two rounds
- A lot of variety in winners here with a lot of winners outside the Top 100 and not many in the Top 20, but favorites do have success here
- Americans win here (not Euros, only 4 non-Americans have won in the last like 50 years)
- No one has won here for the first time here since the 1950s
- The leader or co-leader after 54 holes, has gone on to win 13 times since 2000 including 9 of the past 11 years (Phil was 3 back from Casey in 2019) – not including 2024 where this was just a 54 hole event with the weather ending it early
- In 2021, besides Paul Casey, the other six players that finished T5 were all American and only 3 of the 11 that finished T10 here were not American (and only 6 of the T25)
- 12 of the last 16 winners here played at least 3 events in January and February prior to playing here (Justin Rose and Wyndham Clark, who had both played just two, Vaughn Taylor and Phil are the only ones not to)
- Justin Rose (who had a T18), Ted Potter, Phil (in 2012), Vaughn Taylor and Nick Taylor are the only 5 winners the last 15 years that didn’t have a T15 in one of their 3 prior events that calendar year
- Including US Opens, every winner at Pebble Beach since 2000 has a T18 or better in one or more of their previous three starts here
- The field being much stronger for this year in this event could buck a lot of the trends for this tournament once again
- Last year this event got cut down to 54 holes because of the weather (with all bets placed before the 54th hole was place paid out, but any after that on Saturday being refunded)
Key Stats
Approach (4x more impactful here than SG: OTT), SG: ARG, Par 4 Scoring, GIR
Main proximity distance range on approach (Pebble Beach): 100-125 yards (21.8%), 200+ yards (21.7%)
Field
80 golfers – Great field strength with this being a signature event so all of the best players on Tour (besides Xander) in the field
Defending Champion: Wyndham Clark (-17 through 54 holes)
Runner Up Last Year: Ludvig Aberg (-16 through 54 holes)
One and Done: Justin Thomas
One and Done Considerations: Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa
Players
Justin Thomas: 9800: +1465 – Playing really well lately with two second place finishes in his last three starts, 2,26,2,14,39,30,31,62,5,MC,33,8,21,5 finishes in his last 14 events, finished 6th his only time here last year, 16th in Approach, 59th in SG: OTT, 20th in Par 3 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 45th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in Proximity 100-125 yards, 38th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 79th in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained, 43rd in GIR Gained
Hideki Matsuyama: 9600: +2500 – One of the top players in the field and has two wins in his last six events, 32,16,1,46,9,1,66,MC,23,6,8,35,38,7,6,12,1 finishes in his last 17 events, finished 71st here in his only time playing this event last year, 8th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 12th in Par 3 scoring, 74th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 52nd in Par 5 scoring, 5th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 35th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 34th in Proximity 200+ yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 38th in Birdie+ Gained, 25th in GIR Gained
Sungjae Im: 9000: +2800 – Has been playing the best golf over the last six months without a win with 4,MC,3,13,7,11,40,41,7,4,12,3,MC,8,9,MC,4,12 finishes in his last 18 events, finished 66th his only time here last year, 26th in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 55th in Par 3 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 70th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 7th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 68th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 12th in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 56th in GIR Gained
Taylor Pendrith: 8300: +5500 – Pops in my model with some solid finishes lately with 7,45,13,8,14,13,22,5,72,23,16,33,21,MC,10,1,11 finishes in his last 17 events, 7 and 49 finishes his two times here in 2023 and 2022, 17th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 56th in Par 3 scoring, 14th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 10th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 15th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 77th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 41st in Proximity 200+ yards, 70th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in GIR Gained
Harry Hall: 7300: +9000 – He’s played fantastic lately and I’m right back on him, 21,10,8,14,13,9,35,MC,24,1,12,31 finishes in his last twelve events, finished 34th here his only time at this event in 2023, 23rd in Approach, 72nd in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 3 scoring, 19th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 8th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 29th in Par 5 scoring, 13th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 9th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 29th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 77th in GIR Gained, also taking him T5 (with ties paid in full) for double of my outright
JJ Spaun: 7200: +9000 – He keeps popping on my model so I’m going to continue to probably lose money on him, 15,29,3,MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last 14 events, 54 and 16 finishes his two times here, 2nd in Approach, 51st in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 3 scoring, 16th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 36th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 19th in Par 5 scoring, 11th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 7th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 37th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in GIR Gained, also taking him T5 (with ties paid in full) for double of my outright
Model
Approach (15%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 3 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
Proximity 100-125 yards (10%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
GIR Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Dial back exposure a bit on this tournament cause its typically a fucking joke because of the Pro-Am format in the first two rounds (should be slightly less so this year, but the no cut with the smaller field throws a bit more of a wrench in it)
Bets
Outrights
.8u Justin Thomas (+1465)
.5u Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
.4u Sungjae Im (+2800)
.3u Taylor Pendrith (+5500)
.2u Harry Hall (+9000)
.2u JJ Spaun (+9000)
T5s (with ties paid in full)
.4u Harry Hall (+1100)
.4u JJ Spaun (+1100)
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