This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for one of the most fun weeks of the year, the Waste Management Phoenix Open to lead into the Super Bowl! Let’s hit a winner (or even better, the double)!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7266 yards, plays a bit shorter because of the altitude, need to have a pretty well balanced game to succeed here with a pretty flat distribution of tee to green stats, all three Par 5s are some of the easiest on tour and are all reachable in 2 by a majority of golfers and 17 is a drivable Par 4, off the tee golfers will see narrow landing areas with bunkers placed strategically and water in play (only three water hazards on the course) in play on seven holes, lot of roll out from tee shots, large misses could land in desert vegetation, rough around the fairways isn’t too penal and golfers should still be able to hit decent approach shots out of it, with the high elevation drives (especially) and approach shots will go farther, overseeded POA trivial blend grass, bunkers guarding most greens, greens are relatively flat, firm and fast in a large variety of sizes, some of the easiest greens on tour, this course has longest driving distance average on tour (averaging 296 yards vs. 283 yards tour average) with over 61% of drives going over 300 yards, scrambling and GIR % are higher than tour average where fairways gained is lower than tour average so missing the fairways doesn’t matter much
Tournament Notes
- The biggest party in golf and the crowd is always a factor here, drawing a typical 500k fans for the week. Most of that loud party atmosphere is limited to the Hole 16 Stadium Hole
- A bad finish at the Farmers hasn’t really been too detrimental to the top of the leaderboard here historically the next week
- Behind Augusta and Waialae, this is the third highest place on tour where course history makes an impact
- Not a signature event this season
- 6 of the last 9 years this event has gone to a playoff and the other two besides Scheffler winning by 2 strokes in 2023, were decided by just a stroke
- In 2023, all T9 finishers here gained on approach from 150-175 yards
- 12 of the 13 T10 finishers in 2022 gained strokes on the Par 5s. Last year, everyone that finished T20 besides Adam Scott gained strokes on the Par 5s (Taylor and Adam Schenk technically both lost 0.1 strokes)
- 13 of the last 14 winners here had a T5 in one of their previous 5 events
- Since 2000, only ten 54 hole leaders went on to win and only four since 2009 (Phil in 2013, Rickie in 2019, Scottie in 2023, and Nick Taylor last year)
- 31 of the last 45 players in the last eight years that finished T5 here played Torrey the week before, 11 of them had MC’d at Torrey, 7 had made cut but finished outside T30 at Torrey and in 2021 Carlos Ortiz finished 29th, Scheffler finished T20 and Theegala finished 25 in 2022, JT finished 25th in 2023. Only Tony Finau (T6) and Bubba Watson (T6) in 2020, Xander Schauffele (2) in 2021, and Rahm and Day (both T7) in 2023 finished T10 or better at Torrey the week before in that span of time
- Nick Taylor won here last year after being the runner up to Scottie the prior year
- Bad putters can win here
- My favorite non-major of the year
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (7 of the Par 4s are 442-490 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.2%)
Corollary Courses
TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS) – eleven players have won both of these tournaments
Field
132 golfers – Really good field strength for a non-elevated event
Defending Champion: Nick Taylor (-21 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Charley Hoffman (-21)
One and Done: Scottie Scheffler
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12000: +280 – The best golfer in the world and by far first in my model this week, last week he led the field in approach coming off his hand injury, and he has elite course history here, I think he could win here by a touchdown, former winner of this event in 2023 with 3,1,7,MC finishes here, 9,1,33,4,7,1,41,1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1 finishes in his last 15 events, 1st in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 47th in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 57th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, might not be the best spot to use him in One & Done formats since this isn’t a signature event so the money isn’t as high as one or a major but I think he’s winning so I’m gonna use him, huge bet but I think it’s worth it – Scottie changed the whole golf betting landscape
Hideki Matsuyama: 10200: +1900 – Playing great golf with a win already this season, I’m not really going to care about his finish last week at Pebble with the Pro-Am format, best course history in the field with multiple wins here and 22,29,42,16,15,1,1,2,4 finishes, 48,32,16,1,46,9,1,66,MC,23,6,8,35,38,7,6,12,1 finishes in his last 18 events, 7th in Approach, 44th in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 64th in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 82nd in Birdie+ Gained, one of the very few golfers in the field that I think has a chance to beat Scottie, I’m betting a bit more on it and taking the smaller +1200 number on him in the market without Scheffler to possibly hit two outrights
Luke Clanton: 8300: +7000 – Playing great golf since he’s started playing in PGA Tour events as an amateur with sponsor exemptions and will earn his Tour Card with a made cut this week, 15,MC,2,50,5,MC,37,2,10,41 finishes in his ten PGA Tour starts, first time playing this event, 14th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, 53rd in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 123rd in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, I’m taking the slightly lower number (boosted up) on him to win in the market without Scheffler along with a stab at the regular number
Joe Highsmith: 6500: +25000 – Pops as a long shot in my model this week, had some good finishes in the fall with MC,66,MC,11,5,16,6,55,13 finishes in his last nine events, first time playing this event, 31st in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 25th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 32nd in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 66th in SG: ARG, 73rd in Putting, 27th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking him on the T6 each way as well as without Scheffler
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity: 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
I’m going with a smaller card this week since it costs so much to bet Scottie and taking the markets without Scheffler for the other guys so I could ideally win two full outrights with essentially the exacta on Scheffler with one of the other guys coming in second
Bets
Outrights
4u Scottie Scheffler (+280)
.1u Luke Clanton (+7000)
.1u Joe Highsmith (+25000)
Outrights (without Scheffler)
1u Hideki Matsuyama (+1200)
.2u Luke Clanton (+5625)
.1u Joe Highsmith (+15000)
T6s
.1u Joe Highsmith (+5000)
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A Town's Zone 