This week the PGA Tour goes back to Torrey Pines for the second time in the last month as the Genesis Invitational, a signature event with a loaded field had to move here from Riviera due to the LA Wildfires.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7756 yards, one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, the longest regular course (non-major) on the PGA Tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, seven of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yards, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590 yards so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in two, off the tee golfers will see narrow tree-lined fairways with a lot of bunkers and even thinner, only about 53% of fairways are hit on average here every year (vs. tour average ~62%), kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, rough is pretty thick and gnarly and grown up more than a few weeks ago for the Farmers, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors righties that hit a cut off the tee, average to small sized POA (the only pure POA greens on tour, with most of the other courses we POA greens being blended) greens that are multitiered with undulation and false fronts that are very quick, a lot of the greens are narrow in width and longer front to back, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick but most holes leave an opening in front of the green so golfers have a chance to run up their approach shots with proper placement, tall rough, won’t be as tough as the setup was for the US Open, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds
Tournament Notes
- This tournament typically takes place at Riviera Country Club, but was moved to Torrey Pines this year due to the LA fires
- In 2020, this tournament became a reduced field invitational and Tiger (who was supposed to be in the field this week but WD due to his mom passing away) became the host.
- There is a cut this week, with the T50 and ties (along with anyone 10 strokes from the lead) advancing to the weekend, the first time we’ve ever seen this small of a cut in an event
- Prior to Harris English a few weeks ago, who did have great form in the fall swing, the last four winners here all showed good form early in the season. Pavon had a T7 two weeks prior, Homa had three T15s in his first four events of 2023, List had three T30s in his first four events, and Reed had two T6s in his first three events.
- 16 of the last 19 winners here had a previous T10 here (beside Rahm and Pavon who won in their first starts here and Scott Stallings)
- 11 of the last 12 winners here made at least one start in the calendar year prior to their win
- 11 of the last 20 winners here at the Farmers finished that season T30 in Driving Distance and 10 of the last 18 winners have finished inside the T25 for the year (Rose was just outside of that at T28). The ones that didn’t had to putt lights out to win
- 8 of the top 14 finishers this year, 8 of the top 12 finishers last year, 5 of the top 10 (all of the top 4) finishers in 2023, all of the top 10 finishers in 2022, 7 of the top 9 finishers in 2021 and all of the top 11 finishers in 2019 gained in proximity from 200+ yards
- Good players win here. There has only been 3 shitty winners here in the last 19 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014, Ben Crane in 2010 and Luke List in 2022
- Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (26.2%)
Field
72 golfers – Signature strength field
Defending Champion (Riviera): Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
Runner Up Last Year (Riviera): Will Zalatoris, Luke List (-16)
Farmers Insurance Open Winner: Harris English (-8)
Farmers Insurance Open Winner: Sam Stevens (-7)
One and Done: Rory McIlroy
One and Done Considerations: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12300: +500 – Last week with Detry running away with it at the Waste Management, Scottie was right in the mix behind him and had a great front nine on Sunday before he looked like he just said fuck it and stopped caring on the back nine, so I’m not caring much about that finish, although his putting wasn’t great, he did lead in approach at Pebble coming off his hand injury, 25,9,1,33,4,7,1,41,1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1 finishes in his last 16 events, doesn’t have great course history here with 20,MC,MC finishes at the Farmers but did finished 7th here in the 2021 US Open, 1st in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 35th in Driving Distance, 40th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, I’m probably going to keep betting him every week he plays, I was debating between him and Rory and decided to go with Scottie at this price
Hideki Matsuyama: 9600: +2200 – Technically the defending champion since he won at Riviera last year, good results here at the Farmers, finishing 32nd here a few weeks ago where he was my top bet with 13,9,30,53,45,3,12,33,MC,MC,16 finishes prior to that and 26th at the 2021 US Open, 25,48,32,16,1,46,9,1,66,MC,23,6,8,35,38,7,6,12,1 finishes in his last 19 events, 10th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 39th in Driving Distance, 15th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 47th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 30th in Proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 47th in Birdie+ Gained, 30th in Bogie Avoidance
Taylor Pendrith: 9000: +4000 – Seems like everyone’s betting him and it makes sense with him popping in the model again, finishes 7th here a few weeks ago at the Farmers with 7,9,60,16 finishes here for that event and MC at the 2021 US Open, playing solid golf right now with 9,7,45,13,8,14,13,22,5,72,23,16,33,21,MC,10,1,11 finishes in his last 18 events, 7th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 7th in Driving Distance, 34th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 39th in Proximity 200+ yards, 60th in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 61st in Bogie Avoidance
Max Greyserman: 7200: +8000 – I bet him a few weeks ago here where he was first in my model and finished 48th after he missed the cut here his first time here last year, 49,48,7,24,4,2,28,33,2,2,21,26,31,21 finishes in his last 14 events, 40th in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 8th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 30th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 9th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking him on the T6 each way
JJ Spaun: 7000: +8000 – I rode him all swing season and had him a few weeks ago here at the Farmers where he finished 15th and he still pops in my model, some good course history with a bunch of missed cuts with 15,MC,MC,34,MC,30,MC,23,9 finishes here and MC here at the 2021 US Open, 33,15,29,3,MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last 15 events, 3rd in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 23rd in Driving Distance, 28th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 31st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 32nd in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 54th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained, 15th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking him on the T6 each way
Gary Woodland: 6600: +8000 – Great value here on this former major winner, MC,62,39,48,MC,9,12,20,18,45,10,27,76,58 finishes here for the Farmers and finished 50th here at the US Open in 2021, 21,22,16,MC,33,9,16,MC,28,27 finishes in his last ten events, 6th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 4th in Driving Distance, 47th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 44th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 49th in SG: ARG, 68th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 31st in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking him on the T6 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I hit the winner here at the Farmers two years in a row, hitting Max Homa at 22:1 in 2023 and cashing in on Luke List in 2022 at 80:1
- I’m playing this exactly like its the Farmers with a way better field, not the Genesis
Bets
Outrights
2u Scottie Scheffler (+500)
.5u Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
.3u Taylor Pendrith (+4000)
.2u Max Greyserman (+8000)
.2u JJ Spaun (+8000)
.2u Gary Woodland (+8000)
T6 Each Ways
.2u Max Greyserman (+1600)
.2u JJ Spaun (+1600)
.2u Gary Woodland (+1600)
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