I crushed the USA/Finland game on Thursday night with a huge third period, going 3-0 to win 3.74 units on Team USA’s 6-1 victory. Today we have a doubleheader in Montreal with Finland vs. Sweden and USA vs. Canada, let’s crush it!
Finland vs. Sweden (1:00)
I know most people (including myself) aren’t all that excited for this game since USA vs. Canada is the show of this tournament, and neither of these teams are winning it, but I’d expect this to actually be a pretty fun game this afternoon. Sweden looked horrendous in the first period of their opening night game against Canada, but came back from a 3-1 deficit in the third period to force overtime. Their goaltending tandem of Gustavsson and Ullmark’s solid while they have some top end talent. Finland’s easily the weakest team of the tournament though and their defense, who gave up six goals to Team USA, including four in the third period, is horrendous. I like Sweden here and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’ll also take Nylander and Kempe to get a point for half a unit each. Finland likely will be playing from behind so I like Barkov to generate over 1.5 shots on goal, which I expected to be a 2.5 line after he had 5 shots against USA. I’ll take it for a unit. I’d lean the over due to the bad defense of Finland, but not quite enough to bet on.
USA vs. Canada (8:00)
This is easily the game of the tournament right here and I absolutely cannot wait to watch it tonight. Canada opened the tournament with a 4-3 overtime win against Sweden. They looked to be cruising early, with MacKinnon scoring in the first minute on an insane pass from Sidney Crosby, who had three points, including the assist on Marner’s game winner. Canada got up to a 3-1 lead in the third period before Sweden came back to force OT, losing my regulation bet on Canada. The offense is obviously the best players in the world for Canada, and that power play is lethal, but their defense doesn’t isn’t as deep and their goaltending is pretty bad. Team USA on the other hand has elite goaltending with three of the best goalies in the world. In their first game, America got off to a bit of a slow start, but led by the Tkachuk brothers scoring twice each, on the same line centered by Jack Eichel, we got a 6-1 win with a dominant four goal third period. I think Hellebuyck gets us the win here in goal and I’ll take Team USA for half a unit on the road in Montreal. I also like the over, expecting both teams to score, which I’ll take on the alternate 6 line for a unit. I do like a handful of player props here too. I’ll take Sidney Crosby to get a point for a unit, both Tkachuk brothers and Jack Eichel to get a point for half a unit each (all three of those could hit on one goal), and the Nate Dawg over 3.5 shots on goal for half a unit (who had six shots in their first game).
Game Bets
1u Sweden in regulation (-135)
.5u William Nylander over .5 point (-140)
.5u Adrian Kempe over .5 point (-120)
1u Aleksander Barkov over 1.5 shots on goal (-165)
.5u USA ML (-108)
1u Canada/USA over 6 (-130)
1u Sidney Crosby over .5 point (-165)
.5u Jack Eichel over .5 point (-165)
.5u Matthew Tkachuk over .5 point (-125)
.5u Brady Tkachuk over .5 point (+100)
.5u Nathan MacKinnon over 3.5 shots on goal (-105)
Tournament Bets
2u Tournament Winner: Team USA (+170)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record (Season): 367-337-13 (-46.15 units)
Record (Tourney): 4-3 (+1.26 units)
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