After a few loaded fields, this week the PGA Tour goes to Vidanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open with a pretty weak field. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 71 (normally plays as a Par 73), 7456 yards, Greg Norman design, four Par 5s, five Par 3s and a drivable Par 4, resort course so it plays easily, large and wide open fairways without much trouble surrounding them which could give bombers an advantage, much farther driving distance here compared to tour average (~298 vs. 283), slow and above average sized paspalum greens (which is on most Caribbean resort courses) with water and sand surrounding the greens, water in play on 13 holes, 55 bunkers on the course, near water so it could be effected by the wind but even with heavy winds in 2022 this was a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- This is just the fourth year of this event
- This course used to host a Korn Ferry Tour event
- Last year Justin Lower was the only player in the T10 to not gain strokes in driving distance. In 2023, 10 of the top 11 finishers gained in driving distance.
Key Stats
Approach, Driving Distance, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (40.6%, only three years of data)
Corollary Courses
- Coco Beach Country Club (Puerto Rico Open)
- Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Championship)
Field
132 golfers – Horrendous field strength with absolutely no one elite in the field
Defending Champion: Jake Knapp (-19)
Runner Up Last Year: Sami Valimaki (-17)
One and Done: Kurt Kitayama
One and Done Considerations: Kurt Kitayama, Akshay Bhatia
Players
Kurt Kitayama: 10200: +2420 – Pops up in first in my model with solid stats across the board besides putting, finished T2 here his only time playing this event in 2022, 49,MC,58,37,5,9,25,MC,6,41,34,31 finishes in his last twelve events, 2nd in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 18th in Driving Distance, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 19th in SG: ARG, 126th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained
Sam Stevens: 9800: +2600 – Has played well lately, especially a few weeks ago in his second place finish at the Farmers where he gained 10.2 strokes off the tee, missed the cut his only time here last year, 31,44,17,2,51,59,42,67,6,22,23,37,37 finishes in his last 13 events, 40th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 44th in Driving Distance, 39th in Proximity 200+ yards, 43rd in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained
Harry Hall: 9300: +3500 – Keeps popping in my model and I keep taking him, T33 and T10 finishes here the last two years, MC,58,21,10,8,14,13,9,35,MC,24,1,12,31 finishes in his last 14 events, 26th in Approach, 117th in SG: OTT, 52nd in Driving Distance, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Alex Smalley: 8700: +4000 – Pops in my model with some solid finishes lately, MC,MC,T6 finishes here, 21,MC,11,16,MC,29,39,65,25,5 finishes in his last ten events, 32nd in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 31st in Driving Distance, 6th in Proximity 200+ yards, 45th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 46th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained
Mac Meissner: 7900: +7500 – Playing pretty good golf since getting on the PGA Tour and pops in my model, missed the cut his only time here last year, MC,52,68,21,27,25,37,MC,12,49,16,20 finishes in his last twelve events, 1st in Approach, 52nd in SG: OTT, 74th in Driving Distance, 23rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in SG: ARG, 67th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 80th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking the T5 (including ties)
Antoine Rosner: 7300: +8000 – Coming off a 4th place finish in Qatar on the DP World Tour and finished the fall DP World Tour season with 3,6,4 finishes, losing the DP World Tour Championship only behind Rory McIlroy and Rasmus Hojgaard, first time playing this event, 4,48,MC,MC,3,6,43,62,7 finishes in his last 9 events across both tours, 2nd in Approach, 75th in SG: OTT, 42nd in Driving Distance, 42nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 119th in SG: ARG, 98th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained, also taking the T5 (including ties)
Model
Approach (30%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.5u Kurt Kitayama (+2420)
.5u Sam Stevens (+2600)
.3u Harry Hall (+3500)
.3u Alex Smalley (+4000)
.2u Mac Meissner (+7500)
.2u Antoine Rozner (+8000)
T5s (including ties)
.2u Mac Meissner (+1100)
.2u Antoine Rozner (+1200)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 