Pretty close to a breakeven day for me yesterday on the NHL coming out of the 4 Nations break, going 6-5, losing 0.38 units. Today we have a solid ten game slate. Let’s win!
Capitals vs. Oilers (1:00)
Great game to start off the day, with both of these teams in the second half of back to backs. The Caps are the best team in the East and dominated the Penguins with an 8-3 win on the road yesterday to come out of the break. The Oilers are second in the Pacific and having a great year, but come off a surprising 6-3 loss in Philly yesterday. Washington won the first game between these teams 3-2 on the road in January and I’d slightly lean they win again at home today, but not enough to bet it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Penguins vs. Rangers (3:30)
This Metro Division matchup isn’t great with both teams in the second half of back to backs coming off blowout losses. The Penguins are the worst team in the division, losing 8-3 at home to the Capitals yesterday. The Rangers were embarrassed as well, giving up four goals in the first period in an 8-2 blowout on the road in Buffalo. New York leads the season series between these teams with a 6-0 shutout win in Pittsburgh in the first week of the season, a 4-2 win at home in December and a 3-2 loss at home earlier this month. Even though they just have three more points, the Rangers are definitely the better team here. I’d lean they win on the road, but I’m not touching it. I’d lean the over, but I’ll lay off this game completely.
Red Wings vs. Ducks (6:00)
On paper this game doesn’t look great, but I feel like it could actually be fun. The Red Wings were hot going into the 4 Nations break, with a seven game win streak ending on a 6-3 loss to Tampa to go into the break. They had the matinee yesterday to come out of the break, losing 4-3 at home in overtime to the Wild, blowing a 3-1 third period lead. The Ducks have struggled on the year, but they’re playing well right now. They came out of the break yesterday with a 3-2 overtime win on the road in Boston, now on a four game win streak with seven wins in their last eight games. Anaheim won the first game between these teams 6-4 at home in November. I’d lean Detroit wins this one at home to tie the season series but don’t like it enough to lay the -190. I’d lean the under as well, but think the best play on this game is staying off it.
Lightning vs. Kraken (6:00)
Huge mismatch in this cross conference game. The Lightning have been a solid team this year, in third place in the Atlantic. They went into the break on a four game win streak and six game point streak. The Kraken have been terrible this year, but they did come out of the break yesterday with a surprising 2-1 win on the road against the Panthers. Tampa dominated the first game between these teams back in December with a 5-1 blowout on the road. Especially with Seattle in the second half of a back to back, I like the Bolts to win here pretty easily. I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Blues vs. Avalanche (6:00)
This Central Division matchup isn’t great, with both of these teams in the second half of back to backs, coming out of the 4 Nations break with losses yesterday. The Blues have struggled this year and have just two wins in their last nine games. Yesterday they scored with 2:50 left to go up 3-2 against the Jets, only to give up the game tying goal with 28 seconds left in regulation and then losing in a shootout at home. The Avalanche were hot going into the break, comfortably in the first Wild Card in the West. They came out of it in pretty pathetic fashion yesterday though, losing 2-1 in Nashville. Colorado shut out the Blues with a 5-0 win at home in January. I like the Avs to win again today and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but I’m not touching it.
Predators vs. Devils (6:00)
Not a great game by any means in what I see as a pretty big mismatch between these cross conference teams, but I do see plenty of value here. The Predators have been a massive disappointment this season. After they went into the break with a 6-4 win against the Sabres to end a six game losing streak, they pulled out a 2-1 win against the Avalanche yesterday to come out of it. The Devils have been very good this season on both ends of the ice, comfortably in third place in the Metro. They’ve been a bit inconsistent lately though and came out of the break with a 4-2 loss at home to the Stars yesterday. In November, the Devils won the first game between these teams easily, 5-2 at home. I like Jersey to bounce back here and I’ll take them to get a win on the road tonight for half a unit, at a cheaper price than I would’ve expected. I’d lean the under, but didn’t even consider betting it.
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Huge cross conference mismatch here. The Blackhawks, along with the Sharks, are the worst team in the NHL. Brutal on both ends of the ice. They have just five wins in their last 23 games, getting blow out 5-1 in Columbus yesterday to come out of the break. The Leafs have been solid this season, just a point behind Florida at the top of the Atlantic Division. They came out of the break with a 6-3 win at home against the Canes yesterday and have four wins in their last five games. The first game between these teams in December, the Leafs won 4-1 easily at home. I expect another easy win for Toronto and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Islanders vs. Stars (7:30)
My initial thought on this game is that it’s a boring matchup, but I could see it being a decent game. The Islanders struggled all season, but haven gotten a lot better recently, winning eight of their last eleven games going into the break. The Stars have been very good all season, comfortably in second place in the Central, two points ahead of Minnesota for home ice in the first round. They came out of the break with a 4-2 win in Jersey yesterday and have a 7-1-1 record in their last nine games. In the first week of the season when these teams met the first time in Dallas, the Stars won a 3-0 shutout at home. Even in the second half of a back to back on the road, I like the Stars here and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Flames vs. Sharks (8:00)
Horrible matchup in the Pacific. The Flames are in the Wild Card mix, on the outside looking in, three points back from Vancouver, but I’m not sold on them being a good team by any means. They went into the break on a three game losing streak with two wins in their last eight games. The Sharks are the worst team in the NHL, completely horrendous. They went into the break on a four game losing streak, getting blown out 8-3 at home by the Stars and have just one win in their last eleven games. Calgary won the first game between these teams 3-1 on the road in December and with the far better defense I expect them to win again today. The Sharks are an auto-fade, and I’ll take the Flames in regulation for half a unit. The total’s a complete toss up that I’ll stay off.
Utah HC vs. Canucks (8:00)
Kind of an interesting Western Conference game to end the night, but it isn’t the best matchup. I don’t think either of these teams are very good. Utah came out of the break yesterday with a 5-3 loss on the road in LA, but do have three wins in their last five games. The Canucks took a 3-1 loss in Vegas last night, cashing my last bet of the evening, ending a three game win streak for them. They’re played themselves into the second Wild Card spot, with a 6-2-1 record in their last nine games, but I’m not sold on them and think the Jets kill them in the first round pretty easily. The first game between these teams this year was close, with it going to overtime in Utah in December, with Utah getting the 3-2 win at home. This game’s pretty much a toss up to me. I’d slightly lean the Canucks win on the road, and I’d lean the under, but I’m not touching this game.
Game Bets
.5u Oilers/Capitals over 6.5 (-120)
1u Lightning in regulation (-165)
.5u Avalanche ML (-148)
.5u Devils ML (-122)
1u Maple Leafs in regulation (-155)
.5u Stars ML (-130)
.5u Flames in regulation (-155)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 387-357-13 (-53.7 units)
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