After my great Sunday, I got reverse swept last night on the small two game NHL slate, going 0-3 to lose 3.3 units. Big twelve game slate tonight, let’s bounce back big!
Sabres vs. Ducks (7:00)
Pretty terrible cross matchup here to start off the night. I think both of these teams suck, but they’re both playing pretty good lately. My Sabres are coming off their biggest win of the year, dominating the Rangers in an 8-2 win on Saturday evening coming out of the break. We do have five wins in our last six games, but we’re still the worst team in the East. The Ducks were pretty bad most of the season, but coming off a 5-4 overtime loss in Detroit on Sunday in the second half of a back to back out of the break, they’re on a five game point streak with a 7-1-1 record in their last nine games. The Sabres won the first game between these teams 3-2 in overtime on the road in Anaheim back in November. I’d slightly lean the Ducks answer back with a win on the road here, and I’d lean the over, but the best play on this game is laying off it entirely.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Always a classic Atlantic Division rivalry matchup here. The Leafs lead the season series between these teams this year, with a 2-0-1 record against Boston. The Bruins won the first game at home 4-3 in overtime, then the Leafs answered with a 4-0 shutout and 6-4 win at home. Toronto’s absolutely the better team this year, now leading the Atlantic Division, a point ahead of Florida. After dominant wins against the Blackhawks and Hurricanes to come out of the break, they’ve now won five of their last six games. The Bruins on the other hand have struggled this year. They’re coming into tonight on a three game losing streak after a 3-2 overtime loss at home to the Ducks to come out of the break on Saturday, and have just two wins in their last seven games. I like the Leafs to win this one on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit, which I locked in last night. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
This isn’t a great Eastern Conference matchup and I think a pretty big mismatch. Besides a nice run that they went on through December and January, the Habs have struggled most of the year. They came out of the break on Saturday with a much needed 5-2 win in Ottawa, just their second win in their last ten games. The Hurricanes have had a very good season, comfortably in a playoff spot and tied with the Devils as they play for home ice in the first round. No chance they catch the Caps and I don’t see them dropping past third place. Carolina’s struggling lately though, with just one win in their last five games, coming out of the break with a 6-3 loss in Toronto on Saturday. I think this is a pretty good get right spot on the road for the Canes, and I’ll take Carolina in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over, but I didn’t even consider the total here.
Flyers vs. Penguins (7:00)
Terrible matchup in what’s usually a fun rivalry in the Battle of Pennsylvania since both of these teams have been brutal this season, at the bottom of the Metro Division. These teams split their first two games this year, each winning at home, with the Pens winning a 7-3 blowout to go into the Christmas break and then the Flyers answering with a 3-2 win to go into the 4 Nations break. That win for Philly ended a five game losing streak for them, and they followed it up with a pretty surprising 6-3 win against the Oilers, a huge upset on Saturday afternoon. The Penguins have been pretty brutal too. They came out of the break with an 8-3 blowout loss at home to the Caps on Saturday and then a 5-3 loss at home on Sunday to the Rangers. Pittsburgh has just six wins in their last 21 games. Both of these teams stink and I’ll lay off it entirely.
Capitals vs. Flames (7:00)
This is a pretty big cross conference mismatch in my eyes. The Capitals have been spectacular all year. They’re first overall in the NHL, and Ovechkin, who just scored a hat trick to get to 13 away from Gretzky on Sunday afternoon as Washington blew out the Oilers 7-3. They’re on an eight game point streak with just one regulation loss in their last 21 games. I don’t think the Flames are great, on the outside looking in on a Wild Card spot in the West. They’re coming off grinding out a 3-2 win at home against the Sharks to come out of the break on Sunday night to cap off my great night, and they have just three wins in their last nine games. The Caps won the first game between these teams 3-1 last month in Calgary and I like them to get another win here at home tonight. I’ll take Washington in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, since the Caps could hit that 5.5 on their own, but don’t like it enough to bet on.
Blue Jackets vs. Stars (7:00)
On paper this isn’t a great matchup and although I think the Stars are the significantly better team in this cross conference game, I feel like it could actually be a pretty fun game. These teams played in Dallas earlier this month with the Stars winning 5-3 at home with a pretty controversial go ahead goal late in the third period, that I thought was definitely on a high stick. Columbus has far exceeded expectations this season, right in the mix for a Wild Card in the East. They had a four game losing streak to go into the break, but came out of the break with a dominant 5-1 victory over the lowly Blackhawks at home on Saturday. The Stars are pretty comfortable in a playoff spot, in second place in the Central. They’re on a three game win streak after back to back wins on the road coming out of the break, 4-3 on Long Island on Sunday and 4-2 in Jersey on Saturday. I think the Jackets keep this relatively close, but I’d expect the Stars to win it. I considered both the Blue Jackets +1.5 and the Stars ML, but at -198, I think the right move here is staying off the side in this game. I do like the over and I’ll take the alternate over 6 for half a unit.
Lightning vs. Oilers (7:30)
This should be a really fun cross conference matchup. Both of these teams are very good, comfortably in playoff spots. The Lightning, coming out of the break with a 4-1 win at home against Seattle on Sunday, are in third place in the Atlantic and are now on a five game win streak and seven game point streak after a bit of a slump at the end of January. Edmonton’s two points back from Vegas to lead the Pacific Division, but they come into tonight on a three game losing streak, after blowout losses coming out of the break, losing 6-3 in Philly and 7-3 in Washington this weekend. The first game between these teams was a close grind, with the Oilers winning 2-1 at home in December. I’d very slightly lean the Bolts stay home here and I’d lean the over, but at 6.5 juiced all the way to -125, the best play on this game is nothing at all, so I’ll lay off it completely.
Islanders vs. Rangers (7:30)
I don’t think either of the New York teams are good, but this should be a pretty solid game rivalry game tonight on Long Island. The Islanders got hot for a bit with a seven game win streak, but have since cooled down with just one win in their last five games, coming out of the break with a 4-3 loss at home to the Stars on Sunday. The Rangers have four wins in their last six games, coming off a 5-3 bounce back win in Pittsburgh on Sunday in the second half of a back to back after they got stomped 8-2 by the Sabres to come out of the break on Saturday. The Rags won the first game between these teams 5-2 at home in November and I’d slightly lean they win again, but I’m not betting it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Blues vs. Kraken (8:00)
Such a boring Western Conference matchup here. Both of these teams suck. The Blues, after coming out of the break with a 4-3 shootout loss in a game with a great finish against the Jets on Saturday, they bounced back on Sunday, preventing my sweep of the board with a 3-1 win against the Avs. That was just their third win in their last ten games. The Kraken got a shocking 2-1 win in Florida on Saturday to come out of the break, but then got crushed 4-1 in Tampa on Sunday. St. Louis won the first game between these teams 3-2 in the first week of the season on the road, and I’d lean they win again, but I’m not betting it. I do like the under though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Predators vs. Panthers (8:00)
I think this is a pretty big mismatch for this cross conference game, but I do like the value on this one quite a bit. The Predators have been the biggest disappointment of the season, by far. They came out of the break with a 2-1 win at home against the Avs on Saturday, but went back to expected on Sunday, getting shut out 5-0 at home by the Devils. Nashville has just two wins in their last nine games. The Panthers came out of the break with a pretty surprising 2-1 loss at home to the Kraken on Saturday, but have still been very good this season. The Cup Champs are just a point back from the Leafs for first in the Atlantic, and have five wins in their last seven games. Florida won the first game between these teams 6-2 at home in November and I like a similar bounce back win for them here on the road tonight. I’ll take the Cats for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Wild vs. Red Wings (8:00)
On paper this game doesn’t stand out much and it looks pretty boring initially, but I think this has the potential to be a really solid game. These teams just played on Saturday to come out of the break, with the Wild winning 4-3 in overtime on the road. Minnesota has been good, with a four point lead over the Avs for the third Central Division spot, now on a three game win streak. The Red Wings have been pretty hot lately, currently in the first Wild Card in the tight playoff race in the East. Coming off a 5-4 overtime win against the Ducks on Sunday, they have an 8-1-1 record in their last ten games. I’d very slightly lean Minnesota wins here at home, and I’d lean the over, but I’ll lay off this game completely.
Utah HC vs. Blackhawks (9:00)
Terrible Central Division game to end the night. Utah isn’t a great team. They’re coming off a 2-1 win at home against the Canucks on Sunday, and now have four wins in their last six games. The Blackhawks, along with the Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL. They’re on a three game losing streak after a 5-2 loss at home to the Leafs on Sunday and a 5-1 loss in Columbus coming out of the break on Saturday, and have just five wins in their last 24 games. In the first week of the season, Utah won the first game between these teams 5-2 at home. I don’t think Utah’s great, but Chicago’s still an auto fade. I’ll lay the -175 on Utah in regulation. I’d lean the over, but I’m not betting it.
Game Bets
.5u Maple Leafs ML (-142)
.5u Hurricanes in regulation (-120)
1u Capitals in regulation (-135)
.5u Stars/Blue Jackets over 6 (-118)
.5u Rangers/Islanders over 5.5 (-120)
.5u Blues/Kraken under 5.5 (-110)
1u Panthers ML (-165)
.5u Utah in regulation (-175)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 393-361-13 (-53.34 units)
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