The PGA Tour goes to one of the toughest stops on tour this week, PGA National in Palm Beach for the Cognizant Classic (formerly the Honda Classic). Let’s find a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7147 yards, one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour every year (6 of the last 12 years, its been the hardest non-major of the year), Hole 10 which was previously a very long Par 4 (which used to be the most difficult hole on the course) was lengthened 30 yards and turned into an easier Par 5 in 2024, only six holes have played under Par (the Par 5s, 1, 8, and 13), coastal track so wind could be a big factor, 28 water hazards so water is a big factor and in play on 15 holes and over 6700 balls have hit water here since 2007, 67 bunkers, harder than average fairways to hit, thick rough, average sized but very fast and firm Bermuda greens, greens are elevated and contoured and false fronts, a lot of golfers will go mostly less than driver off the tee (one of lowest driving distance averages on tour at 280 yards vs. tour average 284 yards) but bombers have a slight advantage here
Tournament Notes
- This event was called The Honda Classic from 1982 to 2023, with Honda dropping as a sponsor last year
- This course has hosted this event since 2007
- No player since Jack in 1978 has defended his title here
- The Bear Trap (holes 15-17), which will probably decide the winner on Sunday and since 2007 the Bear Trap and holes 5-7 are the third and fourth most difficult three hole stretches on the PGA Tour
- 4 of the last 9 winners have a T12 finish here in one of the 2 years before winning
- 9 of the last 14 winners here have had a finish of T13 or better in the previous year here before the win
- 14 of the last 16 and all of the last twelve winners here prior to Eckroat last year had made the cut here before the win (so course history matters a bit)
- All of the last 15 winners here had played here before they won
- 8 of the last 9 winners here had a T16 or better on the west coast swing that season
- 5 of the last 8 winners here have had a T10 or better on the west coast swing that season (Straka in 2022 had a T15 and T16)
- 11 of the last 15 winners had at least one T10 that season
- Matt Jones, who shot a -9 in 2021 became the only first round leader to have ever won here
- 54 hole leader won here 11 of the last 18 years
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (24.9%), 150-175 yards (21.9%)
Corollary Courses
- Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Justin Thomas all won both events (and Chris Kirk has had four T5s at Sony)
- Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) – lot of crossover success
- TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS) – 12 of the last 15 winners here had a T17 or better at Sawgrass
Field
144 golfers – Pretty weak field
Defending Champion: Austin Eckroat (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Min Woo Lee, Erik van Rooyen (-14)
One and Done: Russell Henley
One and Done Considerations: Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry
Players
Russell Henley: 10700: +2500 – One of the top players in the field, great course history and former winner here with 41,3,8,20,24,43,MC,44,1,13 finishes here going back to 2013, 39,5,10,30,4,22,30,5,48,7,27,23,10,12,38,4 finishes in his last 16 events, 30th in Approach, 88th in SG: OTT, 121st in Driving Distance, 7th in Good Drives Gained, 4th in Fairways Gained, 26th in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 11th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 32nd in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 17th in Bogey Avoidance, 86th in Sand Saves
Daniel Berger: 9900: +3080 – Seems to be in great form again following his injury with 12,2,MC,21,MC,2,62,20,39,35,7 finishes in his last eleven events, really good course history with MC,4,4,36,29,MC,MC,2 finishes here, 84th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 81st in Driving Distance, 28th in Good Drives Gained, 19th in Fairways Gained, 101st in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 25th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 8th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 31st in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 137th in Sand Saves
Lucas Glover: 7800: +6000 – First in my model this week, play well to start the season with good form lately with 31,MC,3,MC,21,30,42,24,3,3,13 finishes in his last eleven events, 35,30,19,MC,4,17,21,MC,MC,MC,4,39,MC,62,9 finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 85th in SG: OTT, 104th in Driving Distance, 49th in Good Drives Gained, 9th in Fairways Gained, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 57th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 20th in Sand Saves
Gary Woodland: 7500: +6000 – Some really good finishes this year and plays well on difficult courses, a lot of really good results here where he has never lost strokes OTT with MC,5,8,36,49,2,61,68,6,73 finishes here, MC,21,22,16,MC,33,9,16,MC,28 finishes in his last ten events, 5th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 5th in Driving Distance, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 57th in Fairways Gained, 89th in Par 3 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 121st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 6th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 89th in SG: ARG, 112th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Bogey Avoidance, 95th in Sand Saves
Seamus Power: 7300: +7000 – Pops in my model and playing good golf lately with 24,36,17,MC,23,13,MC,11,11,10 finishes in his last ten events, missed the cut here the three times he played it from 2017-2019, 24th in Approach, 63rd in SG: OTT, 53rd in Driving Distance, 17th in Good Drives Gained, 24th in Fairways Gained, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 34th in Par 4 Scoring, 50th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 21st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 26th in SG: ARG, 81st in Putting, 65th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, 57th in Sand Saves
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives Gained (10%)
Fairways Gained (0%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (10%)
Sand Saves (0%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I have Fairways Gained and Sand Saves shown but not weighted in my model, pretty much to determine a slight edge between similar golfers
Bets
Outrights
.5u Russell Henley (+2500)
.5u Daniel Berger (+3080)
.2u Lucas Glover (+6000)
.2u Gary Woodland (+6600)
.2u Seamus Power (+7000)
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