After a few lousy fields the last few weeks, this week the PGA Tour is star studded with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill! Let’s cash the winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7454 yds, plays a bit longer than the yardage, good mix of holes where bombers will have an advantage and others where accuracy will be more of an advantage with a 3 wood or less than driver, all four of the Par 3s are between 200-225 yards, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a lot of golfers but bombers will obviously have an advantage, easy to hit wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers in the landing zones on almost every tee shot, 9 water traps that are in play on 10 of the holes, 84 bunkers, lot of doglegs, thick rough, trimmed rough around hazards which causes more trouble, lot of slopes and undulation on the fairways, guys will have to lay up so average drives are 6 yards shorter than tour average (~278 vs. 284 yards) and driving accuracy is 64% vs. tour average of 62%, almost 30% of approach shots come from beyond 200 yards (most of any course on tour, a huge outlier), lower than average GIR % (~60% vs. 66%), a bit larger than average greens, very difficult course especially when wind picks up which plays a pretty big factor, firm Bermuda greens and fairways, greens are very FAST with slopes and runoff areas especially on the front of the greens, second lowest made putt percentage on tour between 10-15 feet (behind Harbour Town), greenside bunkers aren’t too penal, wind highly effects how this course plays and makes it much more difficult
Tournament Notes
- SG Approach is way more influential than ATG and OTT this week (2.7x more than SG: OTT and 4.2x more than SG: ATG, 2x more than SG: OTT and 2.5x more than SG: ATG for T5)
- Putting could be a little more influential here than usual but not enough for me to want to weigh as much as a key stat
- Elevated event with a $20M purse and a cut of T50 and ties after Friday
- 27 of the last 28 winners here had won on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour prior to their win here
- Veterans win here, with 33 of the last 34 winners here having at least 125 previous career PGA Tour or DP World Tour starts
- 13 of the last 18 winners had at least 3 previous career wins
- 26 of the last 29 winners had a T10 previously in an event the season that they won
- 7 of the last 10 winners had a T5 here at some point prior to their win
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a T17 here at some point prior to their win (Kitayama won in his first start here last year)
- 17 of the last 20 winners here finished T20 here at some point previously in their career
- 17 of the last 20 winners here had played this event at least 3 times prior in their career
- 12 of the last 14 winners here had played the previous season and made the cut (Scottie Scheffler in 2022, who didn’t play the prior year but had a T15 here in the season before that and Kurt Kitayama last year who won in his first start)
- Besides Kurt Kitayama in 2023 who won in his first start, each of the last 18 winners here made the cut in their previous time playing this event
- 11 of the last 13 winners here were T55 on tour in proximity 200+ yards that year
- Internationals have won this event the last 5 of the last 9 years (Bryson, Scottie Scheffler twice and Kitayama are the ones that hadn’t)
- 17/37 players who finished T5 or better in the last five years here were internationals
- Only five Americans have won this event since 2006: Tiger (who’s won here 8 times in his career), Matt Every (twice), Bryson, Scheffler (twice), and Kitayama
- In 7 of the last 10 years, the winner has shot better than -10 on the Par 5s for the week
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 5 scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (28.8%)
Corollary Courses
- Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day won both events in the last 7 years
- Conway Farms Golf Club (BMW Championship) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day both won both events on years when the BMW was held at Conway Farms
- Wentworth Club (BMW PGA Championship – European Tour) – Hatton, Molinari and Rory won there recently who all won here the last five years
Field
72 golfers – Fantastic field strength with this being a signature event
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
Runner Up Last Year: Wyndham Clark (-10)
One and Done: Justin Thomas & Mav McNealy (I’m in two and already used JT in one)
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, McIlroy, Thomas, McNealy
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12000: +320 – Far and away the best golfer in the world, defending champion who won by five strokes last year, won here twice in the last three years with 1,4,1,15 finishes here, 3,25,9,1,33,4,7,1,41,1,2,8,1,1,2,1,1 finishes in his last 17 events, 1st in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 18th in Proximity 200+ yards, 42nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 35th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities gained, 9th in Birdies+ gained, 2nd in Bogey avoidance
Justin Thomas: 9400: +2750 – He’s playing fantastic golf lately with four T10s in his last six events with 9,6,48,2,26,2,14,39,30,31,62,5,MC,33,8,21,5 finishes in his last 17 events, 12,21,49 finishes here, 3rd in Approach, 61st in SG: OTT, 28th in Proximity 200+ yards, 57th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 22nd in Par 5 scoring, 13th in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 9th in Opportunities gained, 12th in Birdies+ gained, 12th in Bogey avoidance
Mav McNealy: 8700: +5500 – Pops quite a bit in my model and I could see him putt his way to a win with how well he’s played lately, won during the swing season with 2,9,40,52,45,8,1,17,6,16,MC,MC,12,45,3 finishes in his last 15 events, kind of lousy history here with 73,49,MC,46 finishes, 13th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 17th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 41st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 39th in Par 5 scoring, 61st in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities gained, 5th in Birdies+ gained, 23rd in Bogey avoidance
Taylor Pendrith: 7900: +5500 – Playing solid golf right now and I’m going back to him with MC,50,9,7,45,13,8,14,13,22,5,72,23,16,33,21,MC,10,1,11 finishes in his last 20 events, MC and 42 finishes his two times here, 20th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 26th in Proximity 200+ yards, 39th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 30th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 67th in SG: ARG, 48th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities gained, 6th in Birdies+ gained, 66th in Bogey avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 scoring (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities gained (5%)
Birdies+ gained (5%)
Bogey avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ve done pretty good on this event in the past crushing top 5s and getting the runner up in 2023 and 2022. Last year, five of my six golfers I bet on came T25 or better. In 2023, I had 6/7 make the cut with Rory’s runner up and two more T4s. In 2022, I had 4/5 making the cut with T2,T20,T26 finishes. In 2021, I hit 2 T10s with 4/5 making the cut. In 2020 hit the winner and 3 T5s in my 5 picks
- Make sure you shop lines this week and use the boosts that all the books offer
- Slight advantage on Showdown slates with golfers starting on Hole 1
- Just four guys on my card this week since Scottie’s such a huge bet
Bets
Outrights
4u Scottie Scheffler (+320)
.5u Justin Thomas (+2750)
.2u Mav McNealy (+5500)
.2u Taylor Pendrith (+5500)
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