Winning day for me yesterday on the NHL, going 5-3 to win 1.02 units, continuing a nice start to March. Today we have a smaller slate for a Saturday, but still huge with ten games on the board. Let’s keep rolling!
Senators vs. Rangers (12:30)
Not the best matchup to start off the day but it is an important one, with both of these teams tied for the second Wild Card in the East and just a point behind Columbus. The Senators have struggled recently, with just two wins in their last eight games, coming off a 4-3 overtime win against the Blackhawks on Wednesday (their other win in that span was against the shitty Sharks). They made a few significant moves yesterday, sending Brady Tkachuk’s best friend Josh Norris to Buffalo in exchange for Dylan Cozens, a pretty even 1 to 1 trade in my eyes. Then they acquired Fabian Zetterlund from Sharks, a solid move for Ottawa. The Rangers have been hot lately, with a 7-3-1 record in their last eleven games, coming off a 3-2 overtime loss to the Caps on Wednesday. The Rags won both previous games between these teams, winning 2-1 in November and 5-0 at home in January. I’d lean the Sens avoid the season sweep and would lean the under, but I’m not touching this game.
Flyers vs. Kraken (12:30)
Not a great game by any means. Both off these teams suck. The Flyers are coming off a 4-1 loss at home to the Jets on Thursday, but have been decent lately with a 4-2-1 record in their last seven games. They got worse yesterday, sending Scott Laughton to Toronto. The Kraken have been even worse. They’ve won just one out of their last five games, coming off a 5-3 loss in Nashville on Thursday. Seattle got worse as well, sending Brandon Tanev to the Jets. The Kraken won the first game between these teams, winning 6-4 at home in October. I’d lean the Flyers win, but I’m not betting it. Both of these teams, despite struggling to score, have trended over recently. I’ll take the over for half a unit.
Lightning vs. Bruins (3:00)
Terrible Atlantic Division matchup here. The Lightning have been on fire lately and had a solid trade deadline. They’re very comfortably in a playoff spot, just a point back from Toronto and three back from Florida. Coming off an electric game where they beat the Sabres 6-5 on Thursday, they’ve won ten of their last eleven games. The Bruins have been awful all year and had a complete fire sale at the deadline yesterday, clear cut losers. They sent captain and face of the franchise Brad Marchand to Florida, a shocking move, then sent Charlie Coyle to Colorado for Casey MIttlestadt, and Brandon Carlo to the Leafs. I’d be furious if I was a B’s fan, but as someone that hates Boston, I loved it. They’re on a three game losing streak, with just one win in their last nine games. These teams split their first two games, with Tampa winning the first game 4-1 at home in January, and the Bruins answering back five days later with a 6-2 win at home. I love the Bolts here and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Panthers vs. Sabres (6:00)
Huge Atlantic Division mismatch between the best and worst team in the division. The Panthers once again lead the Eastern Conference, playing fantastic hockey lately. They’re on a five game win streak with ten wins in their last twelve games, shutting out the Blue Jackets on Thursday. Florida made a huge splash yesterday, getting the rat king himself, Brad Marchand from the Bruins. My Sabres are fucking pathetic. We played great in a 6-5 loss in a very entertaining game in Tampa on Thursday, but are now on a five game losing streak. We made two complete nothing moves yesterday, including trading Dylan Cozens for Josh Norris. Other teams making moves to improve or tank, and we’re just doing essentially break even shitty trades for no reason. We also re-signed Jason Zucker to a new deal, a stupid move in my opinion since there would have been value in trading him. Never gonna get good. These teams split their first two games, with the Sabres winning 5-2 at home in the first week of the season and Florida answering with a 5-2 win on the road in Buffalo a couple weeks later. I like Florida to win easily here again and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, but I could see the Panthers completely shut Buffalo down, so I’ll stay off the total.
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
This is a great cross conference matchup. The Avalanche are playing great hockey right now, in third place in the Central. They’re on a four game win streak, coming off a dominant 7-3 win at home against the Sharks on Thursday, with eight wins in their last eleven games. They made some big moves at the deadline as well, getting Charlie Coyle from the Bruins in exchange for Casey Mittelstadt and getting Brock Nelson from the Isles. The Leafs are playing well too, two points back from Florida, comfortably in a playoff spot in the Atlantic. They’re coming off a 5-2 loss in Vegas on Wednesday where they gave up five straight goals to start the game, their second loss in a row. Toronto bolstered their lineup yesterday as well, getting Scott Laughton from the Flyers and Brandon Carlo from the Bruins. I’d lean Colorado wins at home and the over, but I’ll lay off this game completely.
Flames vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Pretty boring cross conference game here. The Flames are a point back from Vancouver for the second Wild Card spot in the West, but I’m not sold on them being good at all. They’re coming off a 3-2 overtime loss in Dallas on Thursday (loser for me since I had the Stars in regulation) and have just one win in their last five games. The Habs have been hot lately, having a five game win streak come to an end with a 3-2 overtime loss in Edmonton on Thursday. The first game between these teams in Montreal back in November went to OT, with the Flames winning 3-2. I’d expect this to be another close game and I’d lean the Habs win this one, but don’t like it enough to bet on. I’d slightly lean the under, but the best move here is laying off this game entirely.
Predators vs. Blackhawks (8:00)
Terrible matchup between the two worst teams in the Central Division. The Predators have won their last two games, beating the Kraken 5-3 on Thursday. The Blackhawks have gone 3-0-1 in their last four games, in the second half of a back to back tonight after Connor Bedard got the game winner last night against Utah, winning 4-3 at home. Chicago’s 1-1-1 against the Preds this season, losing 3-2 at home in October, losing 3-2 in a shootout on the road in January, and then winning 6-2 at home in February. Especially with the Blackhawks in the second half of a back to back, I’d lean the Predators win this one, but in no way do I think they’re worth the -275. I’d lean the over as well, since both of these teams are awful defensively, but they’ve both been terrible offensively as well, so I’ll stay off this game too with the total at 6.5.
Kings vs. Blues (8:00)
Fun matchup here in the West with the way these teams are both playing right now. The Kings are hanging onto a two point lead over the Canucks for third place in the Pacific, struggling right now, on a five game losing streak. The Blues, in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 4-3 win in Anaheim last night (double winner for me), have been hot lately with a 7-1-1 record in their last nine games. These teams have played twice already this past week, with the Blues winning 4-1 at home on Saturday and then 3-2 in a shootout on the road in March. Especially with St. Louis in the second half of a back to back, I’d lean the Kings avoid the season sweep, but I think the -195 is just too expensive. I’d lean the over, but the best play on this game is staying off it completely.
Oilers vs. Stars (10:00)
Great game here that could be a preview of the Western Conference Finals. The Oilers are comfortably in second place in the Pacific, six points back from Vegas and five in front of LA. They’ve struggled recently though, with just two wins in their last eight games, coming off a 3-2 overtime win against Montreal on Thursday night. The Stars have been fantastic, on a four game win streak coming off a 3-2 overtime win at home against the Flames on Thursday with a 12-2-1 record in their last 15 games. They made a huge move yesterday, sending two first round picks and Logan Stankhoven to Carolina to get Mikko Rantanen, who they signed to a new 8 year, $12M per year deal. I think that trade solidified Dallas as a Cup contender. The Stars won the first game between these teams 4-1 at home in December. I like them to win again here on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but don’t like it enough to bet on.
Sharks vs. Islanders (10:00)
Terrible game to end the night. The Sharks (along with Chicago) are the worst team in the NHL. After two wins, they got stomped in a 7-3 loss in Colorado on Thursday. Yesterday they made a few trades, the biggest one being sending Fabian Zetterlund to Ottawa, which doesn’t make sense for the future for SJ. The Islanders have had a bad year, but are playing alright right now with three wins in their last four games, coming off a 3-2 win at home against the Jets on Tuesday. They made a move getting worse as well, sending Brock Nelson to the Avs. The Isles won the first game between these teams 4-1 at home in January and I expect another win for them tonight on the road. San Jose’s a complete auto fade all year for me and I’ll take the Islanders in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
.5u Flyers/Kraken over 5.5 (-125)
1u Lightning in regulation (-185)
1u Panthers in regulation (-175)
.5u Stars ML (+100)
.5u Islanders in regulation (-105)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 436-397-13 (-52.34 units)
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