This week the PGA Tour goes to one of the most iconic venues in golf, TPC Sawgrass for the biggest signature event of the season, THE PLAYERS Championship!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7352 yards (a bit lengthened, with a few new tee boxes this year and they added the giant tree back on the No. 6 tee), Pete Dye course so its a placement course, you need to miss in the right spots, three of the four Par 5s are reachable in two by most so guys will get eagle looks, the 12th hole is also a risk/reward driveable Par 4 for eagle looks, 5 of the Par 4s are 450-500 yards, 17 water hazards (over 24 acres), 92 bunkers, overseeded Bermuda grass, narrow tree-lined fairways with trouble in play on pretty much every tee shot, a lot of mounds and undulation on the fairways, lots of different doglegs (a Pete Dye staple), average fairway % (~62%), bit below average GIR % (~63% vs. tour average ~65%), less than driver course like most other Pete Dye courses (average driving distance: ~279 yards vs. tour average ~284 yards), the rough has been grown up the past few years about an extra inch to 3-3.5 inches (2-2.5 inches in previous years), the greens are listed as Poa now due to that at this time of the year the Bermuda hasn’t quite grown in yet to be classified as overseeded Bermuda greens, faster than average green speeds, very small and difficult multi-tier greens with a lot of undulation surrounded by water hazards and bunkers, most 3 putts of any non-major course on tour (only yearly course that beats it is Augusta)
Tournament Notes
- In 2019 this tournament was moved from May to March and the course plays a bit slower than it did later in the season and changes the direction of the prevailing winds on the course
- Course history here could be tough to gauge on because if a player has one or two bad holes that could screw them for the whole week (like Paul Casey in 2019)
- There is a ton of variance in the skill sets that could win this course, everyone could win here and bad putters are neutralized here
- With this being an elevated event now, the purse is the highest for any tour event ever at $25 million. The winner gets $4.5 mliion, second gets $2.7 million, the entire top 5 gets at least a million each and the T41 all make six figures
- 13 of the last 14 winners have had a T5 prior to their win in the same calendar year that they won
- 16 of the last 17 winners here had a T23 here at some point prior to their win, with Scottie Scheffler in 2023 being the only one (his best finish prior was 55)
- All but one of the last 40 winners here played this event at least once previously
- The last 26 winners here made the cut in their previous start before their win
- 19 of the last 21 winners ranked in the T45 of the OWGR
- 11 of the last 13 winners ranking in the T45 in SG:ARG for the year leading up to their win
- 18 of the last 20 winners ranked T35 in approach for the year leading up to their win
- 12 of the last 14 winners had a T5 or better in a prior event that season on the year they won
- 12 of the last 13 winners finished T22 or better in their previous start before the win
- 11 of the last 13 winners had a T4 or better in a prior event that season on the year they won
- Every winner here since 2019 has been a major champion
- The last eight winners have had a T25 in their last PGA Tour start prior to their win
- In 2021, seven of the 15 golfers that came T10 here finished Top 20 for the year in bogie avoidance
- Usually elite players (Top 10/Top 20 in the world) win this tournament but there definitely are outliers like when Si Woo Kim won
- Prior to Scottie Scheffler last year, no defending champ had ever gone back to back here
- SG Approach is over 2.5x more important than SG: OTT and SG: ATG (0.43 per round) to T10 finishes over the last 7 years
- Every winner here since 2010 (besides Si WOOOO Kim and JT in 2021) had either a T25 the week before or a T10 in their previous event played (Si Woo was 22nd, JT was 15th)
- 14 of the last 17 winners were T60 in Scrambling for the season that they won (scrambling is a flawed stat vs. SG: ARG)
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4s Gained (450-500 yards), Bogie Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.2%)
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye courses: TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (The American Express), Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- PGA National (Honda Classic) – similar Florida conditions at this time of the year with overseeded Bermuda
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – 5 last 10 champs at the Wyndham also won THE PLAYERS (Davis Love III, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia), same fast greens, Bermuda grass and lots of laying up off the tee on a pretty short course
Field
144 golfers – Fantastic field with all of the best players on the PGA Tour
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-20)
Runner Up Last Year: Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman (-19)
One and Done: Collin Morikawa
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Morikawa
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10500: +1400 – Playing solid golf to start the season with two second place finishes already this year, last week at the API he led the field T2G and was the 54 hole leader and just par’d out Sunday, not the best history here with 45,13,MC,14 finishes here, 2,17,17,2,54,2,28,22,16,4,13,14,2,4,4,16,9,3 finishes in his last 18 events, 30th in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 8th in Fairways Gained, 123rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 7th in Par 3 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 35th in Par 5 Scoring, 14th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdies+ Gained, 9th in Bogey Avoidance
Justin Thomas: 10100: +2200 – Has top ten finishes in four of this last seven events, playing really well T2G, won here in 2021 with MC,60,33,1,35,11,75,3,24 finishes here, 36,9,6,48,2,26,2,14,39,30,31,62,5,MC,33,8,21,5 finishes in his last 18 events, 4th in Approach, 99th in SG: OTT, 101st in Fairways Gained, 43rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 78th in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 24th in SG: ARG, 101st in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdies+ Gained, 17th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 8600: +4000 – Fantastic form coming into this week and has a win already this year at the Amex, been great on approach lately (top 5 in past 24 rounds), 5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15,MC,27,13,61,22 finishes in his last 13 events, decent course history with 16,65,9,MC finishes here, 14th in Approach, 68th in SG: OTT, 15th in Fairways Gained, 92nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in Par 3 Scoring, 52nd in Par 4 Scoring, 106th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 20th in Par 5 Scoring, 112th in SG: ARG, 70th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdies+ Gained, 32nd in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdies+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Stack golfers starting on the 1st hole in Showdown slates on DraftKings for easier birdie streaks
- 13 of the last 15 first round leaders here started in the AM wave
- I had Xander here last year, who was the 54 hole leader ended up tied for second behind Scottie
- I considered betting Scottie again, but he hasn’t been in the elite form this year and I don’t think the +400 is worth it for him to three-peat
- Cutting down my card this week. I haven’t hit a winner all year, this tournament’s been historically tough to bet. May add some plays live over the weekend. Plus, fading Scheffler scares me.
Bets
Outrights
1u Collin Morikawa (+1400)
.5u Justin Thomas (+2200)
.4u Sepp Straka (+4000)
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