I broke even going 1-1 on my two overs in last night’s crappy NHL slate. Tonight we have some solid games on this nine game slate, let’s cash!
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (7:00)
Great game here to start off the night in the Atlantic Division with the two teams going back and forth for first place in the division, which will be a huge advantage in the playoffs. The Leafs are two points back from the Panthers and three points ahead of Toronto. After going on an 8-1 stretch, Toronto went on a three game losing streak that they ended on Monday with a 4-3 win in Utah, blowing a 3-0 lead, but still winning in the shootout. The Panthers have been on fire lately with an 11-3 record in their last 14 games, having a six game win streak come to an end in surprising fashion on Tuesday, blowing a 2-0 third period lead to lose 3-2 in Boston (screwing me in the process). Florida won the first game between these teams in dominant fashion in November, with a 5-1 win at home. I like the Panthers to win again here on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d very slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Senators vs. Bruins (7:00)
Not the best game in the Atlantic. The Senators have been playing really well lately, on a four game win streak with a 5-0-1 record in their last six games, with a three point lead over the Blue Jackets for the first Wild Card in the East, coming off a 5-2 win in Philly on Tuesday. The Bruins have completely fucked me in both games in the state of Florida they’ve played since the deadline, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to beat the Panthers 3-2 on Tuesday and shutting out the Lightning 4-0 on Saturday in a game I thought they were outplayed in. The Sens are 2-1 against Boston, winning 3-2 on the road in OT in November, 6-5 in a shootout at home in January, then losing in a 2-0 shutout on the road five days later. I’d expect Ottawa to win this game tonight, with the B’s now dismantled, but the price at -205 is way too expensive for me, and I don’t like it enough to buy down to regulation. I’d slightly lean the over, but best to just stay off this game.
Flyers vs. Lightning (7:00)
I think this is a pretty lousy Eastern Conference matchup, but I see a nice amount of value on Tampa. The Flyers blow and come into tonight on a five game losing streak, losing by multiple goals in all of those games, coming off a 5-2 loss at home against the Sens on Tuesday. The Lightning are in great shape, with a five point lead over Ottawa for the third place spot in the Atlantic, and just three points behind Toronto for second place and home ice. After a 10-1 stretch, they’ve lost their last two games in a row, coming off a 4-1 loss in Carolina on Tuesday. The first game between these teams in Tampa back in November went to a shootout, with Philly surprisingly winning 2-1. I like the Bolts to answer back here and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Penguins vs. Blues (7:00)
Boring, pretty bad matchup here. The Penguins are coming off two wins in a row, blowing a 2-0 lead against Vegas at home on Tuesday, as they gave up the game tying goal with 7 seconds to go, then winning on Erik Karlsson’s goal 49 seconds in OT, in a game they were outshot 37-17. The Blues haven’t been great on the season, but they’re playing well right now, two points out from Flames and Canucks for the second Wild Card spot. Coming off a 2-1 overtime loss in LA on Saturday, they have a 7-1-2 record in their last ten games. I like St. Louis to win this one on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Blue Jackets vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
Kind of a fun cross conference matchup here. The Blue Jackets, who are far better at home where they have a 20-6-4 record and come back home tonight from a four game road trip where they went 1-3, coming off a 5-3 loss in Jersey on Tuesday. They’re in the second Wild Card spot in the East, with the Habs, Rangers, Red Wings, and Bruins all within two points of them. Vegas leads the Pacific Division, five points ahead of the Oilers. They’re coming off two losses in a row, with their comebacks falling short. On Tuesday they lost 3-2 in overtime to the Pens, coming back from a 2-0 deficit with Noah Hanifan’s game tying goal with 7 seconds to go in regulation, before losing in a game they outshot Pittsburgh 37-17. In the first game between these teams in Vegas, the Jackets won 2-1 in overtime in January. The Knights are the better team here and should win on the road, but I think the Jackets keep it close. I considered both Vegas ML and Columbus +1.5, so the best move here is probably just staying off it. I’d lean the over slightly, but I’m not touching it.
Devils vs. Oilers (7:30)
Both of these cross conference teams are in playoff spots, but haven’t played their best recently. The Devils are coming off a 5-3 win at home against the Blue Jackets on Saturday, their second in a row, but just their eleventh in their last 28. This team’s going to keep struggling without Jack Hughes the rest of the season. The Oilers are in second place in the Pacific, a point ahead of the Kings and five back from Vegas. They’re coming off a 3-2 loss in Buffalo on Monday that they probably should’ve won, and have three wins in their last five games after having gone on a five game losing streak before that. Jersey won the first game between these teams 3-0 on the road in November. I like the Oilers to answer back here and I’ll take them for half a unit. The total’s a complete toss up to me.
Wild vs. Rangers (8:00)
This is such a boring cross conference matchup. The Wild fell to the first Wild Card spot in the West, now three points behind the Avs for the third place spot in the Central. They’ve struggled with injuries and have just three wins in their last eight games, coming off a 2-1 shootout win at home against the Avalanche on Tuesday. The Rangers are two points back from the Blue Jackets for the second Wild Card in the East, despite having a terrible season. They’re on a four game losing streak, coming off a 2-1 loss in Winnipeg on Tuesday. I’d slightly lean the Rags win this one on the road, and I’d lean the under, but I’m not touching this game.
Kings vs. Capitals (10:30)
Solid cross conference matchup to get into the late games. LA’s in third place in the Pacific, a point behind Edmonton and playing solid hockey right now, on a three game win streak following a five game losing streak, coming off a 4-1 win against the Isles on Tuesday. The Capitals are leading the Eastern Conference and have been fantastic all season, coming into tonight on a five game win streak following a 7-4 win in Anaheim on Tuesday. Even though I had Ovi anytime goal, I thought it was cool to see him pass the empty netter over to Protas for the kid’s first NHL hat trick. I considered betting it again tonight, but I think this could be a defensive grind of a game, and will stay off the goal prop (which means he’s almost guaranteed to score). The Caps won the first game between these teams 3-1 at home in December. I like them to win again here on the road and it’s rare that we have a President’s Trophy contender at +110, which I’ll take for half a unit. As I said, I think this is a low scoring, defensive game, but will stay off the under.
Sharks vs. Blackhawks (10:30)
Worst matchup we could have here to close the night between the two worst teams in the NHL. San Jose’s at the bottom of the standings and come into tonight on a three game losing streak, coming off a 3-2 loss at home to the Preds on Tuesday and have just six wins in their last 34 games. Pathetic. The Blackhawks have played slightly better, with a 3-1-2 record in their last six games, getting shut out 3-0 in Colorado on Monday. These teams split their first two games in October, both winning at home 4-2 for Chicago, and 3-2 for San Jose. I’d very slightly lean the Blackhawks win this one on the road and I’d slightly lean the under since neither of them can score, but not a chance in hell I’m betting this game. Toilet bowl if I’ve ever seen one.
Game Bets
.5u Panthers ML (-135)
1u Lightning ML (-155)
.5u Blues ML (-135)
.5u Oilers ML (-135)
.5u Capitals ML (+110)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 448-410-13 (-55.1 units)
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