After a fun PLAYERS last week, this week the PGA Tour has a surprisingly solid field at Copperhead for the Valspar Championship in Tampa!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7352 yards, five Par 3s and four Par 5s, averages to typically play as a top five most difficult course on tour, adjusted to par this actually is a deceptively long course, typically windy event (average ~15 mph), plotters course where precision and placement is more important than distance, overseeded Bermuda grass, less than driver course on a majority of holes, four of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, all the Par 5s are longer than 550 yards, seven of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, average fairways to hit, severe doglegs, tight tree lined fairways which get extremely narrow the farther from the tee box especially around the 300 yard mark so a lot of golfers will go less than driver on a majority of holes and the average driving distance is in the lowest six on Tour (272 yards vs. tour average 284 yards), lot of changes in elevation, 74 bunkers, eight water hazards on nine holes, harder than average greens to hit (~60% vs. tour average ~66%), firm smaller POA overseeded greens with average speeds with lots of back to front slopes, lowest birdie+ % of any course on tour, second most 3 putts inside 5 feet since 2011 (behind Riviera), the rough got grown out to 3.75-4 inches the past couple years from 3 inches in previous years, weather plays a pretty significant factor here
Tournament Notes
- The Snake Pit (holes 16-18) is one of the hardest 3 hole stretches on tour with 16 as one of the top 10 hardest holes on tour. Prior to last year when Peter Malnati shot -3 on it through the week, no winner had ever played it better than even par
- 15 of the last 17 winners here had a T10 that season leading up to their victory (Taylor Moore in 2023 had a T11)
- 15 of the last 17 winners played this event at least twice before winning
- The last 3 winners of this event played THE PLAYERS the week before and made the cut, but none were in contention
- 11 of the last 14 winners here finished T45 or better in their last start before the Valspar
- 11 of the last 17 winners were not first time winners on the PGA Tour
- Each of the 12 winners prior to Taylor Moore in 2023 were T55 or better in bogie avoidance for the year leading up to their win
- 9 of the last 14 winners were T40 or better in approach for the year leading up to their win
- 11 of the last 17 winners were T45 or better in Par 5 scoring for the year leading up to their win
- 4 of the last 7 winners (over the last 7 years) here had a MC at this event the year prior to winning, so don’t put as much stock into some MCs here since its a very hard course
- Cut line has only been under par once here since 2003
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Bogie Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (23.7%), 200+ yards (23.3%), 150-175 yards (20.4%)
Field
156 golfers – Surprisingly a solid field, the strongest I’ve ever seen for this event
Defending Champion: Peter Malnati (-12)
Runner Up Last Year: Cameron Young (-10)
One and Done: Tommy Fleetwood
One and Done Considerations: Fleetwood
Players
Tommy Fleetwood: 10300: +1100 – He’s playing great golf lately and I think if there’s a place he could FINALLY win it’ll be here, elite course history with 7,3,16 finishes here, 14,11,5,22,20,5,22,MC,34,15,16,20,21,26,13 finishes in his last 14 events, 3rd in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 1st in Good Drives Gained, 41st in Par 3 Scoring, 93rd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 15th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 15th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 117th in Proximity 200+ yards, 72nd in SG: ARG, 106th in Putting, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, cannot believe he’s the favorite and I’m actually betting him
Michael Kim: 8900: +3500 – Has played incredible golf this season, prior to his MC at THE PLAYERS last week he had gained strokes in every stat category in his prior 5 events, MC,4,6,13,13,2,MC,43,MC,11,12,30,5 finishes in his last 13 events, pretty lousy history here with 33,45,MC,MC,MC,52,MC finishes here, 19th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 14th in Good Drives Gained, 59th in Par 3 Scoring, 9th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 35th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 83rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 73rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 52nd in Putting, 1st in Bogey Avoidance
Lucas Glover: 8800: +7000 – Coming off his 3rd place finish at THE PLAYERS last week where he gained 9.7 strokes T2G, he’s been playing really well recently with four 3rd place finishes since October with 3,36,MC,31,MC,3,MC,21,30,42,24,3,3,13 in his last 14 events, 11,36,48,13,74,18,MC,24,MC finishes here, 1st in Approach, 61st in SG: OTT, 29th in Good Drives Gained, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 19th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 25th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 5th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 34th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 18th in Proximity 200+ yards, 46th in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 14th in Bogey Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 7300: +9000 – Pops in my model this week, first time playing this event, MC,18,8,36,MC,66,39,66,50,35 finishes in his last ten events, 13th in Approach, 131st in SG: OTT, 54th in Good Drives Gained, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 8th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 65th in Par 4 Scoring, 56th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 57th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 7th in Proximity 200+ yards, 94th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 3 scoring (5%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Bogie avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I cashed in on Sam Burns at +2200 here in 2022 and my favorite pick of Tommy Fleetwood in 2023 finished T3.
Bets
Outrights
1u Tommy Fleetwood (+1100)
.4u Michael Kim (+3500)
.2u Lucas Glover (+7000)
.2u Nicolai Hojgaard (+9000)
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