I went 0-2 on the Leafs/Avs game last night, losing 1.8 units with an assist on the game winner from the ref. Tonight the NHL couldn’t stay out of their own way with a huge 14 game slate going up against the opening night of March Madness. Gotta bounce back!
I cannot fucking believe that last night we had two games on the board (one of them quite shitty) and tomorrow there’s just one hockey game, yet tonight when there’s the biggest sports day of the year, next to the Super Bowl, and the dumb fucks in the NHL scheduling department make a gigantic 14 game slate. INSANE. No wonder no one watches hockey.
Senators vs. Avalanche (7:00)
I think this is a really fun cross conference matchup to start off the night. Both of these playoff teams are playing really well lately but come off of losses. The Senators are comfortably in the first Wild Card in the East, coming off a 6-3 loss in Montreal on Tuesday that ended a six game win streak and eight game point streak. The Avalanche are in the second half of a back to back, coming off a 2-1 loss in Toronto last night, with the ref falling and accidentally giving the Leafs the assist on the game winner. Going into last night, Colorado was on an 8-1 run in their prior nine games. The first time these teams met in Colorado back in October, the Avs won 5-4 at home. I’d lean they win again but don’t like it enough to bet on. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Devils vs. Flames (7:00)
Boring cross conference game here. I think the Devils are dead come playoff time where I expect them to get smoked by the Hurricanes in the first round, but they’re playing pretty well right now. Coming off a 2-1 win in Columbus on Monday, they’ve won four of their last five games. I don’t think the Flames are good by any means, but they’re still right in the playoff race, two points back from the Blues and Canucks for the second Wild Card in the West. They’re coming off a 2-1 win on the road against the Rangers on Tuesday, ending a three game losing streak. In the first game between these teams in Calgary in November, the Flames won with a 3-0 shutout at home. I’d lean the Devils answer back with a win at home here tonight, but the price is too inflated for me at -180. I do like the under though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
I wouldn’t say this is the best Eastern Conference matchup between two playoff teams that have an outside chance of meeting in the first round. The Rangers are back in the race this season, a point back from Montreal for the second Wild Card in the East. They’re not playing great right now though, with just two wins in their last eight games, coming off a 2-1 loss at home to the Flames on Tuesday. The Leafs are in the second half of a back to back, with the ref getting tripped up to get the primary assist on Steven Lorentz’s shorthanded game winner for Toronto to beat the Avs 2-1 last night. Toronto has played well though, tied with Florida at the top of the Atlantic. They’ve won their last two in a row, after going on a 1-5 run in their previous six games. These teams split their last two games, with a 4-1 Rangers win in Toronto in October, and then a 3-2 win for the Leafs in MSG in February. I’d lean the Leafs win here on the road, but I’m not touching it. I’d also lean the under, but the best play on this game is just staying off it completely.
Capitals vs. Flyers (7:00)
Huge mismatch in the Metro between the top and bottom team in the division. The Capitals have been fantastic this year, in a two way race with the Jets for the President’s Trophy. They’re coming off a 4-1 win at home against the Red Wings on Tuesday night and have just one loss in their last eight games. The Flyers stink on the other hand. They got shut out in their last two games, coming off a 2-0 loss in Tampa on Monday, and have only one win in their last eight games. Washington’s won all three previous games between these teams, with a 4-1 win in October on the road, a 6-3 win at home the next night, and then a 4-3 win on the road in February. I like the Caps to complete the season sweep here and will take them in regulation for a unit. I also like Ovi to score again to get to just seven away from Gretzky, and I’ll go back to his anytime goal for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Blue Jackets vs. Panthers (7:00)
This isn’t a horrible game in the East, but is still a pretty big mismatch. The Blue Jackets have struggled lately, on a four game losing streak after a 2-1 loss at home to the Devils on Monday, falling three points back from the Habs for the second Wild Card spot in the East. The Panthers are very good, tied with the Leafs for first place in the Atlantic, but haven’t played their best hockey lately, with just one win in their last four games. They blew a 2-0 lead going into the third period on Sunday, giving up four unanswered to lose 4-2 on Long Island. Florida won both prior games between these teams, 4-3 on the road in October and with a 3-0 shutout at home earlier this month. I like them to bounce back from Sunday’s loss and will take them to complete the season sweep for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but nothing statistically lines up to that, so I’ll stay off the total.
Islanders vs. Canadiens (7:30)
Such a boring Eastern Conference game here, but it could be pretty meaningful in the standings. The Isles haven’t been great this year, but are just three points back from the Habs for that second Wild Card spot. They’ve won their last two in a row, coming off a 4-2 win on the road against the Pens on Tuesday. The Habs are playing great right now, currently in control of their own destiny in the second Wild Card in the East. Coming off a huge 6-3 win at home against the Sens on Tuesday, they’re on a four game point streak with an 8-1-2 record in their last nine games. Both previous games between these teams went to overtime, with the Isles winning 4-3 in a shootout at home in October, and the Canadiens winning 2-1 at home in December in OT. I’d lean the Habs win this one on the road, and I’d slightly lean the under, but don’t see any value in betting this game, so I’ll stay off it completely.
Blues vs. Canucks (7:30)
Not the most fun matchup by any means, but this is a very important game in the race for the last Wild Card spot in the West with these two teams tied for that spot. The Blues are on a three game win streak, coming off a big 4-1 win in Nashville on Tuesday, and they’re playing great hockey right now, with a 10-2-2 record in their last 14 games. I don’t think the Canucks are great, but they have three wins in their last four games, coming off a surprising 6-2 blowout win at home against the Jets on Tuesday. These teams split their first two games, each winning on the road, a 4-3 overtime win for St. Louis in December and a 4-2 win for Vancouver in January. I’d lean the Blues win this one at home and I’d lean the over, but I don’t see enough of an edge to bet this game, so I’ll lay off it.
Predators vs. Ducks (8:00)
Horrible matchup in the West for the second time in the West between two lousy teams. The Predators have been a huge disappointment this season, and come into tonight on a three game losing streak off a 4-1 loss at home to the Blues on Tuesday. The Ducks aren’t good by any means either. They hung in their game on Tuesday (screwing my puck line on Dallas) with a 4-3 overtime loss on the road to the Stars, and have just one win in their last five games. That one win came against Nashville at home last Thursday, winning 2-1, after they had won the first game 5-2 at home in January. I do think Nashville’s the more talented team here and should avoid the season sweep at home, but no shot are they worth the -170. I’d lean the under since neither of these teams can score, but I’m not touching this shitty game.
Stars vs. Lightning (8:00)
This is a spectacular cross conference matchup between the two teams that met in the Bubble in the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals. Both of these teams have been very good this year. The Stars have a four point lead over the Avs for home ice in the first round, coming off a 4-3 overtime win at home against the Ducks on Tuesday (loss for me since I had their puck line) and after going on a nice 7-1 run, they have just two wins in their last five games. The Lightning are two points behind the Panthers and Leafs for first in the Atlantic, coming off a 2-0 shutout win at home against the Flyers on Monday. Dallas won the first game between these teams with a 4-2 win on the road back in November. I’d slightly lean the Stars win this one at home and the under, but not enough to bet this game. Should be a fantastic game.
Blackhawks vs. Kings (8:30)
Horrible mismatch in the West. What makes this a bit interesting though is that although there’s a vast difference in talent between these teams, the Blackhawks actually won both prior games between these teams, winning 4-3 in a shootout on the road in November, then 5-1 at home in March. Chicago blows this season, one of the worst teams in the league, coming into tonight on a five game losing streak after a 6-2 loss at home to the Kraken on Tuesday. The Kings have been very good, comfortably in third place in the Pacific, three points back from the Oilers for home ice in the first round. They had a five game win streak come to an end with a 3-1 loss in Minnesota on Monday. I like LA to avoid the season sweep here and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Utah HC vs. Sabres (9:00)
Such a boring cross conference game. Utah’s been pretty inconsistent this season, four points behind the Blues and Canucks for the second Wild Card spot in the West. They’ve played relatively well lately, with a 9-5-2 record in their last 16 games, coming off getting blown out 7-1 on the road in Edmonton on Tuesday. My Sabres surprisingly have three wins in their last four games, coming off a 3-2 overtime win in Boston on Monday, but we’re still the worst team in the Eastern Conference. Utah won the first game between these teams 5-2 in Buffalo back in December. I like them to win again here and I’ll take Utah for half a unit. I like the over as well, which I’ll also take at 6 for half a unit.
Oilers vs. Jets (9:00)
Great game here out West as both of these teams are very good. The Oilers are on a three game win streak, coming off a a 7-1 blowout win at home against Utah on Tuesday. They’re three points ahead of the Kings for home ice and just two points back from Vegas for first in the Pacific. The Jets have been fantastic, clearly leading the West and in a race with the Caps for the President’s Trophy. They are coming off a 6-2 loss in Vancouver on Tuesday, flipping that slate to a losing night for me as they ended a three game win streak. Winnipeg dominated the first game between these teams to open the season, shocking a lot of people at the time with a 6-0 shutout on the road. I’d slightly lean Edmonton wins here at home and I’d lean the under, but I’m not touching this game. Should be a lot of fun.
Golden Knights vs. Bruins (10:00)
This cross conference game’s a pretty big mismatch with the slightly fun caveat of Vegas head coach Bruce Cassidy facing his former team, who are in shambles. Vegas is still leading the Pacific, two points ahead of the Oilers, but they’re struggling a bit right now. After a 7-1 run, they’ve won just one of their last five games (but lost two in OT), coming off a 3-0 loss in Detroit on Sunday. The Bruins were big sellers at the deadline and have struggled since, on a three game losing streak coming off a 3-2 overtime loss at home to the Sabres on Monday. The Knights won the first game between these teams 4-3 on the road in February. I like the Golden Knights to win again and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Sharks vs. Hurricanes (10:30)
Biggest mismatch on the board tonight for this cross conference game to end the night. The Sharks are horrendous, easily the worst team in the league (right alongside the Blackhawks). Coming off a 5-1 blowout loss at home against the Capitals on Saturday, they have just five wins in their last 26 games. The Hurricanes on the other hand have been great, comfortably in second place in the Metro. They’re coming into tonight on a seven game win streak after shutting out the Flyers 5-0 on the road on Saturday. The first game between these teams in Carolina was closer than I expected, with the Hurricanes still winning 3-2 at home. I like the Canes to win this one easily, and although the books make it real tough to bet on at -360, I’ll take their puck line for a unit. I’d slightly lean the over, but definitely am not betting it, since I can see another 5-0 win for Carolina.
Game Bets
.5u Avalanche/Senators over 5.5 (-135)
.5u Devils/Flames under 5.5 (-130)
1u Capitals in regulation (-160)
.5u Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+110)
.5u Panthers ML (-185)
.5u Kings in regulation (-150)
.5u Utah ML (-180)
.5u Utah/Sabres over 6 (-115)
.5u Golden Knights in regulation (-180)
1u Hurricanes -1.5 (-135)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 466-428-13 (-59.26 units)
BONUS: Take every 1H under in the first round of March Madness (go a little lighter on games with 1, 2, and 3 seeds
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