I went 1-1 last night on the NHL, pretty much breaking even with a .28 unit loss. After yesterday’s boring slate, today we have a solid ten game slate, let’s win!
Sabres vs. Senators (7:00)
Not the best game in the Atlantic to start the night. My Sabres are coming off a pretty shocking 5-3 win in Winnipeg on Sunday afternoon, somehow beating the top team in the West in a game that we were outshot 36-17. Unbelievable to pull that off when we’re still the worst team in the East. The Senators are playing well, with a four point lead over the Habs as they sit in the first Wild Card in the East. Coming off a 3-2 win in Jersey on Saturday, they’ve gone 8-2-1 in their last eleven games. Buffalo won both previous games between these teams pretty convincingly, with a 5-1 win at home in November and a 4-0 shutout win on the road in January. I like the Sens to answer back here and I’ll take Ottawa for half a unit. I like the over as well, but not quite enough to bet it at 6.5. When players leave the Sabres they typically have success, especially against their former team. Dylan Cozens, who got traded to the Sens at the deadline has been good since being traded. I looked at his goal prop, which I don’t really love, then his shot prop which at 1.5 likely hits, but at -165 I don’t think that’s really worth it when he’s only had more than one shot in five of his eight games since being traded. He does have a point in seven of his eight games with Ottawa so I love the value on that, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers (7:00)
Huge mismatch in the East. The Leafs have been very good this year. Coming off a 5-2 loss in Nashville on Saturday that came as a bit of a surprise to me, ending a three game win streak, they’re two points back from the Panthers for first in the Atlantic Division. The Flyers on the other hand have been brutal, in last place in the Metro. They couldn’t even beat the Blackhawks on Sunday, losing 7-4 in Chicago for their fifth straight loss, and they have just one win in their last eleven games. Toronto won both previous games between these teams 3-2 in January, winning in OT at home and then on the road two days later in the second half of a home and home. I like the Leafs to complete the season sweep here and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d slightly lean the under, but I’m not touching the total here.
Lightning vs. Penguins (7:00)
This isn’t the best Eastern Conference matchup by any means, a pretty big mismatch. The Lightning are coming home off two losses in a row after a 4-2 loss in Vegas on Sunday, but they have been very good, two points back from the Leafs for home ice in the first round and just four back from Florida for the Atlantic Division lead. The Penguins have been horrible all year, but they’re playing their best hockey right now, with a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games, coming off a 4-3 shootout loss in Florida on Sunday. Tampa won both prior games between these teams on the road, winning 3-2 in overtime in November and then 5-2 in January. I love them to get the bounce back here to sweep the season series at home. I’ll take the Bolts in regulation for a unit. I like the over as well, which I’ll take at 6 for half a unit.
Hurricanes vs. Predators (7:00)
Another big mismatch here, this one in a pretty boring cross conference game. The Hurricanes have been very good, pretty much locked into second place in the Metro Division, where I’d expect they have a relatively easy first round matchup against the Devils. Coming off a nice bounce back 5-2 win in Anaheim on Sunday, they’ve won nine of their last ten games. The Predators are awful, a huge disappointment this year. Coming off a 4-1 loss in St. Louis on Saturday (easy win for me), they have just one win in their last six games. Nashville won the first game between these teams 5-2 at home in December and I like Carolina to answer back here. I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Blues vs. Canadiens (8:00)
This isn’t the most interesting game, but the matchup does showcase the two teams that if the playoffs started today would be in the second Wild Card spots in their conferences. The Blues are on fire lately, on a six game win streak coming off a 4-1 win at home against the Predators on Sunday, and they have a 13-2-2 record in their last 17 games, three points ahead of the Canucks for the final playoff spot in the West. The Habs are just a point ahead of the Isles and Rangers for the last playoff spot in the East, with the Blue Jackets and Red Wings also just wishing three points of them from that spot. They’ve been a bit inconsistent, with just three wins in their last eight games, but do come into tonight on a six game point streak with an 8-1-4 record in their last 13 games, coming off a 5-4 shootout loss at home to the Avs on Saturday. Montreal won the first game between these teams 5-2 at home in October. I’d lean St. Louis wins this one at home and I’d very slightly lean the over, but I think the best play on this game is laying off it completely.
Wild vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
Decent, yet sort of boring matchup in the West between these two playoff teams. The Wild are in the first Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, four points ahead of the Blues and four behind the Avs for third in the Central. They’re dealing with a ton of injuries and have been inconsistent because of it. Minnesota’s in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 3-0 shutout loss in Dallas (easy win for me) last night, ending a three game win streak. The Golden Knights are my pick to win the Cup, although their play on the road where they’re only 15-13-5 is pretty concerning. They lead the Pacific with a five point lead over the Kings and Oilers, on a three game win streak, coming off a 4-2 win at home against the Lightning on Sunday. Vegas won both previous games between these teams 3-2 on the road in December and 4-1 at home in January. I like the Knights to win this one again, especially with the Wild in the second half of a back to back. I’ll lay the -192 on Vegas for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but both enough to bet it at 5.5.
Jets vs. Capitals (8:00)
Spectacular cross conference matchup between the only two teams really competing for the President’s Trophy, each leading their conferences. Both have been very impressive this year on both ends of the ice, far exceeding my expectations. The Jets are coming off a pretty shocking 5-3 loss to the Sabres at home on Sunday in a game they outshot Buffalo 36-17, and they have six wins in their last nine games, leading the Central and the West by six points over Dallas. The Capitals are on a four game win streak, coming off a 6-3 win at home against the Panthers on Saturday, with just one loss in their last ten games. They have first in the East pretty much locked up, twelve points ahead of Carolina. The first game between these teams in Washington back in February, that game went to overtime with Josh Morrissey winning it on the road for the Jets in OT. I’d slightly lean the Capitals answer back here with a win on the road, and I wouldn’t be shocked if this one goes to overtime as well. I considered betting the draw for it to go to OT, but I just don’t think its worth it. The total’s a complete toss up to me. I can’t wait to watch this game, but I’m not betting it. Should be fantastic hockey.
Avalanche vs. Red Wings (9:00)
This cross conference matchup isn’t great. The Avalanche have been playing great hockey right now, with a 10-1-1 record in their last twelve games, coming off a 5-4 shootout win in Montreal on Saturday. They’re in third place in the Central, five points behind Dallas for home ice in the first round and four ahead of the Wild. The Red Wings are in the second half of a back to back, coming off a 5-1 win in Utah last night (loss for me). That was just their third win in their last twelve games, but Detroit is still just three points back from the Habs for the second Wild Card in the East. Colorado won the first game between these teams 2-1 on the road in December and especially with the Red Wings in the second half of a back to back, I like the Avs to win here again. I’ll take their puck line for half a unit. I’d lean the over slightly, but not enough to bet on at 6.5.
Flames vs. Kraken (9:00)
Very boring Pacific Division matchup here between two teams that I don’t think are good. The Flames are four points back from the Blues for the second Wild Card spot in the West, coming into tonight on a three game win streak after a 4-3 overtime win on the road against the Islanders on Saturday, after they had previously gone on a stretch with just two wins in nine games. The Kraken haven’t been good all year, coming off two loss in a row after a 5-4 loss in Edmonton on Saturday. Calgary’s 1-0-2 this season against Seattle, losing 2-1 in overtime at home in October, winning 3-2 on the road in February, and then losing 3-2 in overtime at home a week later. I’d lean the Flames win this one at home and the under, but I’m not touching this game.
Kings vs. Rangers (10:30)
I don’t think this is the best game to end the night. The Kings have been playing fantastic hockey lately, tied for second in the Pacific with the Oilers, five points back from Vegas. Coming off a 7-2 blowout win at home against the Bruins on Sunday, they’ve won eight of their last nine games. The Rangers haven’t been great, but they’re just a point back from the Habs for the second Wild Card spot in the East. Coming off a 5-3 win at home against the Canucks on Saturday that ended a three game losing streak, they have just three wins in their last ten games. LA won the first game between these teams with a 5-1 blowout on the road in December. I like them to win again here and will take the Kings for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
.5u Senators ML (-155)
.5u Dylan Cozens over .5 point (-105)
1u Maple Leafs in regulation (-165)
1u Lightning in regulation (-170)
.5u Lightning/Penguins over 6 (-120)
1u Hurricanes in regulation (-175)
.5u Golden Knights ML (-192)
.5u Avalanche -1.5 (-115)
.5u Kings ML (-170)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 485-436-13 (-55.03 units)
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