This week Scottie, Rory, and a significantly worse field behind them on the PGA Tour head to Memorial Park Golf Course for the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7432 yards, plays long for a Par 70 course, three Par 5s, five Par 3s, two of the Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field and the other one is 630 yards and should play as a three shot hole for most of the field, three of the Par 3s are long in the 200-235 yards range with the other two way shorter at 155 and 167, the Par 4s have a huge range of different layouts and five of them are over 490 yards, tree lined fairways but if you don’t miss wildly you could play between the trees, 1.5-2 inch overseeded Bermuda rough could be a bit penal between the fairway and the trees, only 19 bunkers on the course and just two water hazards in play on four holes, hitting fairways here is important, higher driving distance here vs. tour average (~290 vs. 283 yards), much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (~56% vs. 62), lower GIR percentage vs. tour average (~63% vs. 66%), above average sized elevated poa over-seeded Bermuda greens that are firm and severely sloped with crowned edges with small landing areas to have good scoring chances guarded by runoff areas, wind could play a big factor, last year had the closest proximity from the rough on tour
Tournament Notes
- This event used to be a regular season event and was moved to the fall swing season in 2020, and then after a year of it not happening, it moved back to a regular season event in 2024
- This course has only hosted this event since 2020, so this is only the fourth year here
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, SG: ARG
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (25.9%)
Field
156 golfers – Rory and Scottie at the top of the board with a pretty bad drop off after those two
Defending Champion: Stephen Jaeger (-12)
Last Year Runner Ups: Taylor Moore, Alejandro Tosti, Thomas Detry, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau (-11)
One and Done: JJ Spaun
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, McIlroy, Spaun
Players
Rory McIlroy: 11700: +800 – One of the top two players in the field and he’s playing better than Scottie and over 2x the odds, coming off his Monday playoff win at THE PLAYERS last week, 1,15,17,1,9,11,68,MC,4,2,15,4,12,1,33,22,3 finishes in his last 17 events, first time playing here, 39th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 5th in Driving Distance, 60th in Par 3 Scoring, 73rd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 73rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 11th in SG: ARG, 39th in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 34th in Birdie+ Gained, 24th in Bogey Avoidance, I wasn’t going to bet him at +650 but I think at +800 it’s worth it
JJ Spaun: 9900: +3850 – He’s been playing great lately with two second place finishes in his last three events, coming off losing in the Monday playoff on the 17th hole to Rory at THE PLAYERS (thank God I didn’t bet him that week), 36 and 46 finishes here, 2,31,2,34,33,15,29,3,MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9,45,23,10 finishes in his last 19 events, 1st in Approach, 79th in SG: OTT, 59th in Driving Distance, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 29th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 111th in Proximity 200+ yards, 61st in SG: ARG, 73rd in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 17th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance
Michael Kim: 8700: +4500 – Has played by far his best golf this season, 64,47,MC finishes here, 28,MC,4,6,13,13,2,MC,43,MC,11,12,30,5 finishes in his last 14 events, 20th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 65th in Driving Distance, 68th in Par 3 Scoring, 24th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 91st in Proximity 200+ yards, 6th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 53rd in Opportunities Gained, 86th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance
Mav McNealy: 8300: +6600 – Won in the swing season at the RSM Classic and was playing solid golf with the second place finish at the Genesis before his two bad MCs at THE PLAYERS and API, MC,MC,2,9,40,52,45,8,1,17,6,16,MC,MC,12,45,3 finishes in his last 16 events, 27,19,20 finishes here, 30th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 64th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 82nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 115th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, 45th in Bogey Avoidance
Alex Smalley: 8200: +6000 – Playing really well this year, solid course history with MC,4,15 finishes here, MC,14,18,10,21,MC,11,16,MC,29,39,65,25,5 finishes in his last 14 events, 65th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 54th in Driving Distance, 43rd in Par 3 Scoring, 51st in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Proximity 200+ yards, 13th in SG: ARG, 45th in Putting, 65th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogey Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 7400: +10000 – Has been playing pretty well and pops in my model again enough to bet on at the 100:1, MC,MC,18,8,36,MC,66,39,66,50,35 finishes in his last eleven events, first time playing this event, 8th in Approach, 129th in SG: OTT, 34th in Driving Distance, 1st in Par 3 Scoring, 11th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 78th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 100th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 55th in Opportunities Gained, 75th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Guys starting on 1 have a significant advantage on Showdown slates this week, with 8-9-10 all having a birdie rate of over 12%
Bets
Outrights
1.5u Rory McIlroy (+800)
.3u JJ Spaun (+3850)
.3u Michael Kim (+4500)
.2u Alex Smalley (+6000)
.2u Mav McNealy (+6600)
.1u Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000)
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