This week the PGA Tour heads to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, the last chance to qualify for The Masters next week! Let’s lead into the best week of golf season with a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7438 yards, Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia), overseeded Bermuda grass with poa-trivialis throughout, plays very long, the Par 5s are long, all of them around 600 yards with only one reachable in two by most golfers (Par 5s here play the hardest of any course on tour), three of the Par 3s are over 183 yards, 74 bunkers, water hazards on three holes, average driving distance here is longer than tour average by a few yards since guys don’t care to hit the fairways, very hard to hit narrow tree lined fairways (~55% driving accuracy vs. ~62% tour average) that get more narrow with large bunkers in play in the landing zones, shorter rough isn’t too penal to get out of, native areas will be very hard to get out of if you miss the fairways wildly, very hard to hit greens (~59% GIR vs. tour average ~66%), second-lowest GIR % on tour behind just Riviera, average speed greens that are multitiered with lots of undulation, closely mowed edges of greens (like Augusta), it can get very windy here with the prevailing winds more to the players backs on longer holes and in their face on the shorter ones, besides TPC Sawgrass this course has the most triple bogies on tour, the front nine is much more difficult than the back nine
Tournament Notes
- There isn’t as much of a difference between SG: OTT and Approach as there usually is, so you need to be good off the tee here and SG: OTT becomes more influential the higher the finish
- Last chance to get into The Masters by winning this tournament, this is only the fifth year that it’s been the tournament the week before The Masters
- 8 of the last 11 winners at the event prior to The Masters weren’t already in and were the final qualifier into the field
- Historically one of the 10 hardest courses on tour but has played a bit easier the past few years
- Besides Landry in 2018 who didn’t play the year before he won and Conners in 2023 (who had a T35 the year before but was a previous winner here with elite course history), 5 of the last 9 winners have a T30 the year before here (Spieth in 2021 was technically 2 years since the 2020 tournament was cancelled because of covid, but still fits this trend since he came T30 in 2019 here)
- 5 of the last 10 winners here were first time winners on tour
- 8 of the last 14 winners here (since they started playing this event at this course in 2010) were the 54 hole leaders (Conners was solo 2nd in 2023)
- Prior to JJ Spaun in 2022 (who was 4th T2G and gained strokes in every facet of the game), the prior four winners here were 4th, 1st, 1st and 2nd in Approach for the week and the last two years, Akshay Bhatia (2024) and Corey Conners (2023) led the field in Approach for the week
- Last year Akshay Bhatia went wire-to-wire on his way to the playoff win
- Last year was the first time that this event went to a playoff in 14 years since this course has hosted it
- The cut line has never been under par here
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (20.1%), 200+ yards (18.9%), 175-200 yards (18.3%)
Field
156 golfers – Pretty decent field
Defending Champion: Akshay Bhatia (-20 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Denny McCarthy (-20)
One and Done: Keegan Bradley
One and Done Considerations: Aberg, Bradley
Players
Ludvig Aberg: 10800: +1200 – One of the top players in the field and already won this season at the Genesis, MC,22,1,42,5,17,16,2,40,MC,4,27,12,5 finishes in his last 14 events, 14 and MC finishes here last year and 2022, 58th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 73rd in Good Drives Gained, 13th in Par 5 Scoring, 53rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 20th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 96th in SG: ARG, 49th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 60th in Bogey Avoidance
Keegan Bradley: 9500: +2800 – Playing really well this year, ballstriking’s been very good, good history with 8,23,45,MC,37,9 finishes here, 20,5,34,65,15,5,15,21,1,59,22 finishes in his last eleven events, 11th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 56th in Good Drives Gained, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 51st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 43rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 124th in Proximity 200+ yards, 69th in SG: ARG, 68th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained, 47th in Bogey Avoidance
Daniel Berger: 9200: +3850 – Seems to be back in his pre-injury form with 20,15,25,12,2,MC,21,MC,2,62,20,39,35,7 finishes in his last 14 events, missed the cut his only two times here in 2019 and 2015, 46th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 11th in Good Drives Gained, 47th in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 30th in Proximity 200+ yards, 15th in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 26th in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in Bogey Avoidance
Bud Cauley: 8300: +5500 – Comes in with fantastic form off his 4th place finish at Valspar where he gained 8.1 strokes on approach and his 6th at THE PLAYERS, 4,6,MC,56,21,30,25,34,MC,5,32 finishes in his last eleven events, 39,MC,10,MC,31,18 finishes here, 27th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 28th in Good Drives Gained, 43rd in Par 5 Scoring, 99th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 19th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 55th in Proximity 200+ yards, 16th in SG: ARG, 39th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogey Avoidance
Gary Woodland: 7800: +5500 – Played fantastic at Houston last week where he finished 2nd, 8,6,26,75,MC finishes here, 2,47,MC,MC,MC,21,22,16,MC,33,9,16 finishes in his last twelve events, 12th in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 17th in Good Drives Gained, 54th in Par 5 Scoring, 109th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 16th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 101st in SG: ARG, 52nd in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 27th in Birdie+ Gained, 14th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I hit the winner on Corey Conners here in 2023, cashing the outright and getting the win on my One & Done pick
Bets
Outrights
1u Ludvig Aberg (+1200)
.5u Keegan Bradley (+2800)
.4u Daniel Berger (+3850)
.2u Bud Cauley (+5500)
.2u Gary Woodland (+5500)
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