“A tradition unlike any other”
This week all the best golfers in the world head to Augusta National for the best tournament of the year, the first major of the season, a traditional unlike any other, The Masters! Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7555 yards which was lengthened a bit over the last few years, lush tree lined fairways with a lot of undulation which leads to the course playing longer than it is with above average width with bunkers in the landing areas, 44 bunkers, six water hazards in play on five oles, rye grass, almost no rough, soft pine straw that you could hit out of as long as you don’t have a tree in the way, six of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, 13/14 par 4’s: you’re hitting driver, two years ago the 11th hole got lengthened by 15 yards and a bunch of rough got removed from the course, lots of changes in elevation on the course, experience here matters, first timers don’t win here, bombers have an advantage, right to left draw ball flight works best here (comes naturally for leftys, Spieth draws the ball well also), easy to hit fairways (~68% vs. ~61% tour average), hard to hit greens vs. tour average (~60% vs. ~66%), average 65 square foot firm and FAST multi-tiered bent grass greens with a ton of undulation, greens are average to above average in size but that is misleading since most greens slope heavily from back to front with difficult landing areas, tons of slope and undulation on very fast greens, most greens are elevated and have large run offs and collection areas or bunkers around them that are tough to get up and down from, Augusta has SubAir greens and fairways with a ton of drainage on the course, rain doesn’t effect it and isn’t much of a factor here like it usually is on other courses on tour even when there is a ton of rain
Tournament Notes
- Course history is most predictive at Augusta, more than any other course on tour by a significant margin
- No winner has come from outside 50:1 odds in the last twelve years
- Since 2012, Bubba Watson (#18 in the OWGR that year) was the lowest ranked player to win The Masters. Even Danny Willett who was 100:1 in 2016 when he won, was ranked 12th in the World
- 23 of the last 25 winners were ranking in the Top 30 in OWGR (this trend could be off now because LIV Golfers haven’t gotten OWGR points since the British Open in 2022 and those rankings are now completely meaningless)
- The last time a first timer won the Masters was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Aberg gave it a pretty good run last year, finishing solo second (-7) behind Scottie (-11), three strokes ahead of the guys T3
- Except for Patrick Reed in 2018, the past 27 champions made the cut at The Masters the previous year
- 24 of the last 27 winners finished 38th or better at the Masters the year before they won
- 15 of the last 17 winners had finished 22nd or higher in a previous Masters Tournament
- 14 of the last 15 winners had at least a T8 in at least one of their seven events prior to their win at The Masters
- Besides Hideki in 2021, all of the last 14 Masters winners have had a win or 2 Top 5s in their five events leading up to Augusta
- Besides Hideki in 2019 who only had one T15, every other winner of the last 13 years had at least two T15 finishes in their three tournaments leading into The Masters
- 13 of the last 15 winners had a T35 or better in their last start prior to The Masters (Rahm in 2023 had a T39 but three wins and five T7s in his five events before that T39)
- 14 of the last 16 winners had at least 4 previous career wins
- 14 of the last 16 winners had won a tournament on U.S. soil within the two years leading up to their Masters win
- 13 of the last 15 winners had a T6 in a major within the two years leading up to their Masters win
- No winner has repeated since Tiger in 2002 (along with Nick Faldo in 1990 and Jack in 1966)
- Jack was oldest player to ever win the Masters, at 46 years old
- 19 of the last 22 winners were aged 27 or older
- Besides Hideki in 2021 and Rahm technically in 2023 (although he was incredible T2G all that season besides API the week prior), all the rest of the last twelve winners besides those two gained a minimum of 13.4 strokes T2G in their two prior events leading up to their victory at Augusta
- Each of the last 15 winners were inside the Top 30 in SG: T2G leading up to The Masters
- Each of the last 13 winners had gained at least 18 strokes T2G in their four events prior to The Masters.
- 10 of the last 12 winners were inside the Top 7 in SG: T2G leading up to The Masters
- 8 of the last 10 winners ranked Top 5 the week they won in Approach
- Driving is very important here. Scheffler and Rahm were second in the field in SG: OTT the past two years, Scottie was 9th during his first win, and Dustin Johnson led the field when he won in the fall in 2020.
- 13 of the last 15 winners ranked inside the T40 in Par 5 Scoring for the year they won
- The last seven winners have been 69 under par on the Par 5s, so scoring on those is very important
- Bad putting is neutralized here because everyone will struggle on these greens, with 14 of the last 17 winners ranking outside the T50 in putting for the year they won
- 14 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the T50 for the season in Driving Distance in the year leading up to their Masters win
- Each of the last twelve winners had gained at least 0.25 strokes ARG in the 16 rounds prior to their Masters win
- Twelve of the top 13 in Good Drives Gained at The Masters in 2023 finished T20. Last year nine of the top 12 in Good Drives Gained at The Masters finished T16.
- The last seven winners here were within four shots of the lead after Thursday (last year Scheffler was just a stroke back, Rahm in 2023 and DJ in the November edition held a share of the Day 1 lead)
- No golfer has won the Masters three times in the span of four years (which works quite hard against Scheffler this week) since Jack Nicklaus in the 60s
- In the last seven years, the defending champion has only finished inside the T30 three times
- Besides Wyndham Clark, every major winner the last seven years has had at least a T2 finish at a major previously
- There isn’t publicly available specific strokes gained data for Augusta
Key Stats
SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Par 5 Scoring
Main proximity distance range: 175-200 yards (but a lot of elevation changes here make that not as accurate as other courses)
Corollary Courses
- Emirates Golf Club (Omega Dubai Desert Challenge) – Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won this and the Masters in the same year
- Riviera CC (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success and the course maps out similar, with a lot of lefty success there as well
- Quail Hallow Club (Wells Fargo Championship)
- Correlated courses are not as much of a factor that I’ll be looking at with so much course history at Augusta
Field
96 golfers with all the stars leading both the PGA Tour and the LIV Golf
Smallest field for a major and you could cut out a good 20-30 players (Sr. past champs etc.) that just aren’t gonna win – It doesn’t matter that Bernhard Langer is the #1 Sr. in the world…he’s not winning The Masters
Cut: Top 50 and ties (no longer anyone within 10 strokes of the lead like its been in the past, that hasn’t been the case for the last 5 seasons)
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
Runner Up Last Year: Ludvig Aberg (-7)
One and Done: Brooks Koepka
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, McIlroy, Morikawa, Koepka, Garcia
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10500: +1600 – Two time major champion (although both of his previous major wins were during covid without full galleries of fans), is playing fantastic despite not winning, he had 15 birdie putts on Sunday at THE PLAYERS but only made 3 of them, 3,10,5,18,44 finishes here, 10,2,17,17,2,54,2,28,22,16,4,13,14,2,4,4,16,9 finishes in his last 18 events, 7th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Good Drives Gained, 74th in Driving Distance, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 24th in Par 5 Scoring, 36th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 8th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Bogey Avoidance
Justin Thomas: 9600: +2500 – Two time major champion, MC,MC,8,21,4,12,17,22,39 finishes here, coming off a second place finish a couple weeks ago at the Valspar with 2,33,36,9,6,48,2,26,2,14 finishes in his last ten events, 4th in Approach, 70th in SG: OTT, 49th in Good Drives Gained, 18th in Driving Distance, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 24th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in SG: ARG, 58th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Bogey Avoidance
Brooks Koepka: 9400: +3500 – The best major champion of this generation (but he hasn’t won here yet), some great course history with two second places with 45,2,MC,MC,7,2,11,21,33 finishes here, 18,2,35,7,33 finishes on LIV Golf this year, 29th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 58th in Good Drives Gained, 19th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 32nd in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 29th in SG: ARG, 22nd in Putting, 43rd in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Bogey Avoidance (stats are all off due to him being on LIV and those only being tracked in majors)
Shane Lowry: 8800: +4500 – Former major champion, fantastic form right now with 8,20,7,11,39,2,MC,9,13,50,MC,6.9,19 finishes in his last 14 event, Fifth in T2G per round over the last three years here with 43,16,3,21,25,MC,MC,39,MC finishes here, 12th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 18th in Good Drives Gained, 70th in Driving Distance, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 22nd in SG: ARG, 53rd in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 7600: +8000 – Shockingly first in my model this week, won this year at the American Express and having a good year, especially excelling tee to green with 28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15,MC,27,13,61,22 finishes in his last 15 events, 16,46,30 finishes here the past three years, 2nd in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 6th in Good Drives Gained, 72nd in Driving Distance, 34th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 55th in SG: ARG, 45th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking the T5 on him (including ties)
Sergio Garcia: 7100: +8000 – He’s playing fantastic golf on LIV this season and has statistically been the best player on that tour this year, winning late last year and then again this year with 3,32,1,18,6 finishes on LIV Golf this season, coming off his third place finish last week in Miami at Trump National Doral, former winner here in 2017 but he’s struggled here since with just one made cut (23rd in 2022 since then but does have several top ten finishes here going all the way back to 2003, last season he had a T12 at Pinehurst for the US Open, trying to qualify for the Europe Ryder Cup team, 54th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 36th in Good Drives Gained, 31st in Driving Distance, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 45th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 50th in Par 5 Scoring, 46th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 46th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 86th in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Bogey Avoidance (stats are all off due to him being on LIV and those only being tracked in the few majors he plays), also taking the T7 each way
JJ Spaun: 6800: +11300 – Playing great golf this season including his second place finish at THE PLAYERS where he lost in the Monday playoff to Rory, finished 23rd in his only time here in 2022, MC,2,31,2,34,33,15,29,3,MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9 finishes in his last 17 events, 1st in Approach, 69th in SG: OTT, 15th in Good Drives Gained, 43rd in Driving Distance, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 40th in Par 5 Scoring, 48th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 58th in SG: ARG, 49th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking the T7 each way
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Note: Stats for LIV golfers will be inconsistent since we don’t have any SG data for their events
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- May want to leave salary cap on the table
- Need to get 6/6 in the cut at a minimum to cash, need to hit 6 T10s with the winner to win big money
- Making cuts here should not be a factor in lineup construction and will almost play closer to a no cut event on DK
- Need scoring points as well as placing points
- Prices vary from book to book so as usual, make sure you shop them across every book you have available
- In One & Done contests, the elite LIV guys that you can’t use for anything other than majors are viable options (Brooks/Rahm/Bryson)
- I don’t see Scottie Scheffler winning this year to go back to back. I do like Rory quite a bit, and if I did my research blind looking at history, form, and stats, I’d be all over Rory as by far my favorite pick of the week…but I can’t see him shaking the demons he has at Augusta.
Bets
Outrights
1u Collin Morikawa (+1600)
.5u Justin Thomas (+2500)
.4u Brooks Koepka (+3500)
.3u Shane Lowry (+4500)
.2u Sergio Garcia (+8000)
.2u Sepp Straka (+8000)
.14u JJ Spaun (+11300)
T7 Each Ways
.2u Sergio Garcia (+1600)
.1u JJ Spaun (+2000)
T5s (Including Ties)
.2u Sepp Straka (+1170)
DraftKings DFS Lineup
Justin Thomas/Brooks Koepka/Shane Lowry/Sepp Straka/Sergio Garcia/JJ Spaun
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