Last night I went 1-2 on the NHL, losing 1.42 units. Today we have a big eleven game slate for the last Saturday of the regular season, let’s crush it!
Flyers vs. Islanders (12:30)
Lousy matinee in the Metro Division. Both of these teams have sucked all year. The Flyers are still last in the division, but they have played better as of late, with four wins in their last five games, coming off an 8-5 win on the road against the Rangers on Wednesday. This run was after they had just one win in the span of twelve games. The Islanders got killed 9-2 at home by their rival Rangers in the Battle of New York on Thursday and have just two wins in their last ten games. The Isles are 2-1 against Philly this season, losing 5-3 at home, winning 3-1 at home, then winning with a 3-0 shutout on the road. I’d slightly lean the Flyers tie the season series here at home, and I’d lean the over, which I considered taking, but the best play on this game is just staying off it completely.
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals (12:30)
Pretty big mismatch in the Metro for this early start. The Blue Jackets are coming off two wins in a row, beating my Sabres 3-2 in a good game on Thursday night, but those came too little too late, as they’re out of the playoffs. Meanwhile the Capitals have first place in the Eastern Conference locked up, and are coasting to the postseason, coming off a 5-4 shootout win in a great preview of the second round against Carolina at home on Thursday night. Washington won both previous games between these teams, winning 7-2 at home in November and then 2-1 in overtime in December. I know the Caps are probably going to just cruise, and have Ovechkin and Chychrun out of the lineup today, but I still like them to win here, and I’ll take them for half a unit. The total’s pretty much a toss up.
Hurricanes vs. Rangers (3:00)
Not a great game here in the Metro for this matinee. The Canes have second place in the division locked up against the Devils, playing meaningless hockey heading into the playoffs. They’re on a four game losing streak, coming off a 5-4 shootout loss to the Capitals on the road on Thursday. The Rangers are missing the playoffs, but ended a three game losing streak on Thursday with a 9-2 blowout win on the road on Long Island against their rival Isles in the Battle of New York. Carolina’s won all three previous games between these teams, 4-3 at home in November, 3-1 on the road in December, and 4-0 on the road in January. I like the Hurricanes to complete the season sweep and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit. At 5.5, I’d slightly lean the over, but didn’t consider betting it.
Kings vs. Avalanche (4:00)
Fantastic matchup here out West. The Kings are in second place in the Pacific, two points ahead of the Oilers for home ice in the first round. They’ve gone 14-4 in their last 18 games, coming off blowing out the Ducks 6-1 at home on Thursday night. The Avalanche are coming off a 4-1 loss at home to the Canucks on Thursday, but have been very good, in third place in the Central. They’ve gone 15-4-2 in their last 21 games. Colorado won both previous game between these teams at home, winning 4-2 in November and 4-0 in March. I’d lean LA avoids the season sweep here with a win on home ice, but the -185 is way too expensive in a game that I think should be closer to around -120, so I sort of see value in the Avs here. The total’s a toss up, and I’ll lay off this game completely.
Panthers vs. Sabres (6:00)
This is a bad matchup in the the Atlantic Division. The Panthers have been great all year, in third place in the division, two points behind the Lightning for home ice for the Battle of Florida and four behind the Leafs for the division lead. They’re coming off two wins in a row after a 4-1 win at home against Detroit on Thursday. My Sabres have played well right now when it doesn’t matter, ruining our potential draft pick. We’re coming off a 3-2 loss in Columbus on Thursday in a solid game, ending a five game win streak, just our second loss in our last ten games. Florida leads the season series 2-1, with the Sabres winning 5-2 the first week of the season, the Panthers answering with a 5-2 win in Buffalo in October, and then shutting us out 4-0 in March. I like Florida to win again here and I’ll lay the -192 on the Cup champs for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not quite enough to bet it.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens (7:00)
This should be a pretty good matchup here in the Atlantic Division by two playoff teams. The Leafs lead the division, two points ahead of the Lightning, coming off a 4-3 overtime win on the road against them in Tampa on Wednesday. They’ve played great as of late, with a 9-2-1 record in their last twelve games. The Habs are in the second Wild Card spot (and I fully expect them to get eliminated by the Caps pretty quickly), having a six game win streak come to an end with a 4-2 loss in Ottawa last night. Toronto’s 2-1 this season against the Canadiens, with Montreal winning 1-0 at home in October, the Leafs answering with a 4-1 win at home in November, and then a 7-3 win for Toronto on the road in January. With the Habs in the second half of a back to back and the Leafs actually having something to play for, I like them to win again here. I’ll take Toronto in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Blackhawks vs. Jets (7:00)
Huge mismatch between the top team in the Central and the worst team in the division. The Blackhawks are coming off a 5-2 win in Boston on Thursday but have been one of the worst teams in the NHL all season. This team’s awful, with just three wins in their last 16 games. The Jets are coming off a 4-0 shutout win in Dallas on Thursday, needing just a point to lock up first place in the division, six points ahead of the Stars. Winnipeg’s been fantastic all year, with twelve wins in their last 17 games. To no surprise, the Jets won both previous games between these teams 2-1 in overtime to start the season at home and then 4-2 on the road in December. I like the Jets to complete the season sweep here, and so do the books with the money line at -320. I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it since the Jets could probably score six themselves.
Stars vs. Utah HC (8:00)
Not the best Central Division matchup here, but I could see this being a pretty fun games. The Stars are six points behind the Jets, but do have home ice in the first round against the Avalanche locked up. They’ve struggled a bit recently, on a four game losing streak, coming off getting shut out 4-0 at home by the Jets on Thursday. Utah isn’t great this year, but they’re playing fun hockey, with a 4-1-1 record in their last six games, coming off a 4-3 shootout loss on Thursday to the Preds. Dallas is 3-0 against Utah this year, winning 2-1 on the road and 3-2 on the road in December, then 3-2 in OT at home in January. I like them to complete the season sweep here and I’ll take them for half a unit to get out of this losing streak. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5.
Canucks vs. Wild (10:00)
Not the most interesting matchup in the West for sure. The Canucks are out of the playoffs officially, but come into tonight with three wins in their last four games, coming off a 4-1 loss in Colorado on Thursday night. The Wild are tied with the Blues, three points ahead of the Flames, who they lost 4-2 to last night on the road. Minnesota’s a much better team now that they got Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back in the lineup. These teams split their first two games, with the home team winning both games, a 3-2 overtime win for the Wild in December and a 3-1 win for the Canucks in March. The Wild are the better team here and I’d lean they win on the road, but I don’t like it enough to bet on with them in the second half of a back to back. I’d also lean the under, but I’m just staying off this game completely.
Golden Knights vs. Predators (10:00)
Big mismatch out West. Vegas is still my pick to win the Stanley Cup this season and they can lock up first place in the Pacific with a win tonight. Coming off a 2-1 grind of a win on Thursday against the Kraken, they have a 9-2-1 record in their last twelve games. The Predators are coming off two wins in a row after a 4-3 shootout win in Utah on Thursday, but have been awful all season. These teams split their first two games, with Nashville surprisingly winning 5-3 at home in January, then Vegas answering back with a 3-1 win on the road last month. I like the Knights to win here tonight at home in the Fortress and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d very slightly lean the under, but didn’t even consider betting it.
Kraken vs. Blues (10:00)
Not the best game here to close the night out. The Kraken have had quite the bad year, coming off two losses in a row after a 2-1 loss in Vegas on Thursday. The Blues are coming off two losses in a row as well after they had gone on a twelve game win streak to get to the place they are in the standings. St. Louis is tied with the Wild for the two Wild Card spots, with the Flames chasing them, three points back. The Blues won both previous games between these teams, 3-2 on the road in October, and 7-2 at home in February. I like them to pretty much lock up their spot in the playoffs and complete the season sweep on the road and I’ll take the Blues for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
.5u Capitals ML (-105)
.5u Hurricanes in regulation (-150)
.5u Panthers ML (-192)
.5u Maple Leafs in regulation (-155)
1u Jets in regulation (-170)
.5u Stars ML (-130)
1u Golden Knights in regulation (-165)
1u Blues ML (-135)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 552-480-14 (-53.49 units)
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