Bad Saturday for me on the NHL, capped off with a long Blues shootout loss late night, as I went 3-5 to lose 2.8 units. We have a big nine game Sunday slate going up against the Masters with just a few days left in the regular season. Let’s finish strong.
Senators vs. Flyers (1:00)
Pretty big mismatch in the East to start off the day. The Sens, who are coming off a 5-2 win at home against the Habs on Friday night, have the first Wild Card in the East, four points ahead of Montreal for seeding, projected to face the Leafs in the first round for a Battle of Ontario. Ottawa’s won four of their last five games. The Flyers are playing decent hockey right now that it doesn’t matter, with five wins in their last six games, in the second half of a back to back, coming off a 4-3 shootout win at home against the Islanders yesterday afternoon, while they’re far out of the playoffs. These teams split their first two games, with Philly winning 5-4 in OT in Ottawa in November and the Senators answering with a 5-2 win on the road in March. I like the Sens to win this one at home and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Devils vs. Islanders (1:00)
Lousy matinee in the Metro Division. The Devils have their first round matchup locked in against the Hurricanes, who are gonna smoke them. They’re coming off two losses in a row, losing 4-2 at home to the Penguins on Friday night. The Islanders have been terrible all season and they’re in the second half of a back to back today after losing 4-3 in a shootout in Philly yesterday afternoon. These teams split their first two games, each winning 4-3 in overtime, on the road. I’d lean the Devils win here but the price at -195 is way more than they’re worth. I’d lean the over, but at 6.5, I’m not touching this game.
Penguins vs. Bruins (3:30)
Terrible game here between two of the worst teams in the East. The Penguins have struggled all year, but they’ve played a bit better lately with a 4-1-1 record in their last six games, coming off a 4-2 win in Jersey on Friday. The Bruins dismantled their lineup and are now in last place in the East, with just five wins in their last 25 games, coming off an embarrassing 5-2 loss at home to the Blackhawks on Thursday. The road team won both previous games between these teams, a 2-1 Penguins win in November and a 3-2 Boston win on the road in March. I like Pittsburgh to win this one at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I like the over too, which I’ll take for half a unit as well.
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs (5:00)
Solid matchup here between two good playoff items in the East, with both teams in the second half of a back to back. The Hurricanes have nothing to play for with their second seed in the Metro locked up and a matchup with home ice against the Devils in the first round. Yesterday they ended a four game losing streak with a 7-3 win at home against the Rangers. The Leafs are four points ahead of the Lightning and Panthers for the very important 1 seed in the Atlantic and can pretty much lock up a matchup for the Battle of Ontario with a win here. Last night at home, they dominated Montreal, but it took till overtime for the first goal of the game, with Mitch Marner winning it 1-0 in OT for Toronto. The Leafs are playing great right now, with a 10-2-1 record in their last 13 games. These teams split their first two games, each winning 6-3 at home. I don’t understand why the price on this game is so high with the Canes at -215, and with that I’ll take a stab on the Maple Leafs, who actually have something to play for at a nice +185 price. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Lightning vs. Sabres (6:00)
Bad matchup in the Atlantic. The Lightning have been fantastic this year, tied with Florida with a game in hand for home ice in the first round, and four behind the Leafs for first place in the division. They’ve struggled a bit as of late though, coming off a 4-3 overtime loss at home to the Red Wings on Friday night. Despite being on a four game point streak, they have just one win in their last five games, but do have a 5-1-3 record in their last nine. The Sabres are in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 3-2 shootout loss in Lauderdale against a Panthers teams that sat half their lineup last night to get ready for the playoffs. That was our second loss in a row after going on a five game win streak. These teams split their first two games, with the Lightning winning 6-5 at home in a spectacular game on March 6th, and the Sabres answering back last Saturday with a 3-2 shootout win at home. Especially with Buffalo in the second half of a back to back and Tampa playing for seeding, I like the Bolts to win this one at home. I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not quite enough to bet it.
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets (6:00)
Interesting game here for the second half of a home and home. If it wasn’t for yesterday afternoon’s result in Columbus with the Blue Jackets winning in a 7-0 blowout at home, I probably wouldn’t give a shit about this game. That Jackets win came after the Caps won 7-2 at home in November and then 2-1 in overtime on the road in December. The Capitals have nothing to play for, with the first overall seed in the East locked up and an outside chance at the President’s Trophy if the Jets lose both of their last games in regulation and the Caps win all three of theirs. Columbus technically isn’t eliminated yet, but they’re not making playoffs, despite coming into tonight on a three game win streak. I like Washington to answer back from yesterday and win here at home. I’ll take them for half a unit. The total’s pretty much a crapshoot to me.
Jets vs. Oilers (7:00)
Fun game out West between these two playoff teams. The Jets can lock up the President’s Trophy with a win at home tonight. They’re on a three game win streak with 13 wins in their last 18 games. Winnipeg is in the second half of a back to back today, coming off needing overtime in a 5-4 shootout win in Chicago last night. The Oilers got Connor McDavid back in the lineup and have won both of their games since, coming off a 4-2 win against the Sharks on Friday night (nice puck line cover for me). They’re probably going to end up third in the the Pacific, four points back from the Kings with three games to play for each team, who they already have their matchup locked in for. Winnipeg won both previous games between these teams, with a 6-0 shutout on the road in the first game of the season and then 4-3 in overtime last month, once again on the road. I’d lean the Jets win the President’s Trophy today with a win at home, but don’t like this game enough to bet on. I’d lean the under, but don’t see any value in that either.
Flames vs. Sharks (8:00)
Bad matchup in the Pacific. The Flames have overachieved this season with great goaltending, and they still have a very slim chance at making the playoffs if they win their last three games, as they sit four points back with two games in hand to the Blues. They’re coming off a very important 4-2 win at home against the Wild on Friday and have an 8-2-3 record in their last 13 games. San Jose already have the highest draft lottery chances locked up as the worst team in the NHL and come into today on an eight game losing streak after a 4-2 loss in Edmonton on Friday night. Calgary’s 3-0 against the Sharks this season, winning 3-1 on the road in December, 3-2 at home in February, and 3-2 on the road last Monday. I like them to complete the season sweep and stay alive, and I’ll lay the -190 on them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Ducks vs. Avalanche (10:00)
Pretty bad, but completely meaningless game in the Western Conference to end the night. The Ducks have had a pretty lousy season, coming off a 6-1 loss in LA on Thursday, with five wins in their last ten games. The Avalanche are locked into the third seed in the Central with their first round matchup against the Stars now official as they close the regular season tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked if half their stars sit tonight and get rested for the playoffs, where they’ll likely get their captain, Gabriel Landeskog back after he missed three full seasons wait a bad knee injury after they won the Cup. The Avs won both prior games between these teams, winning 4-3 in overtime at home in October and then 4-2 on the road in December. I would typically be all over Colorado to complete the season sweep here, but with this game meaning nothing and not knowing who’s playing, I’ll stay off it. I’d slightly lean the over, but the right play here is staying off this game completely.
Game Bets
.5u Senators in regulation (-160)
.5u Penguins ML (-162)
.5u Penguins/Bruins over 5.5 (-130)
.5u Maple Leafs ML (+185)
1u Lightning in regulation (-180)
.5u Capitals ML (-162)
1u Flames in regulation (-190)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 555-485-14 (-55.99 units)
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