This last week of the NHL regular season has been a slow slog, and with the Habs losing last night, I went 2-3, losing 2.33 units. Not great. Tonight we have the last ten game slate of the season. Let’s win with a couple games that actually mean something.
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Pretty bad matchup in the Atlantic to start the night, but it does actually mean something. My Sabres have been one of the worst teams in the league all season, the second worst team in the East. After a nice run of eight wins in nine games after being eliminated from playoff contention, we come into tonight on a three game losing streak after getting blown out 7-4 in Tampa on Sunday night. The Leafs can win the division tonight, as they’re four points ahead of the Lightning. They’re playing well right now too, on a three game win streak after a 4-1 win in Carolina on Sunday, with an 11-2-1 record in their last 14 games. Toronto won both previous games between these teams, winning 5-3 at home and then 6-3 on the road, five days apart in December. I like the Leafs to complete the season sweep here to lock up the #1 seed and a Battle of Ontario in the first round to avoid playing either of the Florida teams. I’ll take Toronto for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Bruins vs. Devils (7:00)
Another lousy matchup in the East. The Bruins are the worst team in the Eastern Conference, missing the playoffs this year for the first time in a long time after dismantling their roster at the trade deadline. After going on a ten game losing streak, they’ve since won three of their last five games, coming off a 4-1 win in Pittsburgh (double loser for me in a game I absolutely should’ve stay off completely) on Sunday. Although I don’t see the Devils even being competitive against Carolina in the first round of the playoffs (I don’t expect that series to go longer than five games), they are locked into that third playoff spot in the Metro and are preparing for the playoffs. I can see them resting some of their top players tonight and tomorrow. These teams split their first two games this season in Jersey, with the Devils winning 5-1 at home in January, and then the Bruins answering back with a 7-2 win on the road last Tuesday. I’d lean Jersey wins this one on the road as they’re the far better team, but with this game being meaningless and the Devils likely resting guys, I think the best move here is just laying off this game entirely. I’d slightly lean the under, but didn’t even consider betting it.
Senators vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
Meaningless, lousy matchup here. The Senators are playing great hockey, and they’re locked into the first Wild Card spot in the East, awaiting if they’re going to be playing the Leafs (more than likely) or the Lightning in the first round of the playoffs. Coming into tonight off a 4-3 overtime win at home against the Flyers on Sunday, they’ve won five of their last six games. The Blackhawks are one of the worst teams in the NHL this year, and they’re in the second half of a back to back tonight. Last night they kept Montreal from clinching a playoff spot, winning 4-3 in a crazy shootout on the road. Right now with nothing at all to play for, Chicago’s gone 3-1-1 in their last five games. The first game between these teams in Chicago went to overtime last month, with the Sens winning 4-3 on the road. With the Blackhawks in the second half of a back to back, even with Ottawa likely sitting some guys tonight, I’d still expect a Senators win at home tonight and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This isn’t a good matchup by any means in the Metro Division, but it does actually mean a lot in the playoff race. The Flyers have been terrible this season, in last place in the division. They have played much better though recently after firing Torts, with a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games, coming off a 4-3 overtime loss in Ottawa on Sunday. Columbus needs to win both of their remaining games, winning at least one of them in regulation, and they need the Habs to lose their final game in regulation in order to get in the playoffs. They’re playing well right now, on a four game win streak after a 4-1 win in DC on Sunday. Philly’s 2-0-1 in the season series between these teams, winning 5-3 on the road in December, winning 5-4 in overtime at home later in December, and then losing 3-2 in a shootout in Columbus in January. I think the Jackets make this final push and stay alive with a win tonight, even so that I think it’s worth taking them for half a unit here. I’d lean the over slightly here, but didn’t even consider betting it.
Lightning vs. Panthers (7:30)
It’s looking very likely that this year we’re getting another Battle of Florida in the first round, which every hockey fan should be pumped for with this hard hitting rivalry. Both of these teams have played very good hockey this year. This game tonight is pretty meaningless though. The Lightning already have home ice in the first round locked up, and they do still have the chance at winning the Atlantic and avoiding Tampa in the first round with two wins in their last two games and two losses in regulation for Toronto. Probably not happening with the Leafs having just the Sabres and Red Wings left. The Bolts are coming off a 7-4 win against Buffalo at home on Sunday and have a 9-3-3 record in their last 15 games. The Panthers conclude the regular season tonight locked into third place, just awaiting if they’re going to Tampa or Toronto for the first round. They’re in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 5-3 loss to the Rangers yesterday (loser for me) following a three game win streak before that, and they’ve been sitting guys for a bit to get ready for playoffs. Florida’s 2-1 this season against their biggest rival, winning 4-2 on the road in December, losing 4-0 the next night at home, and then winning 2-1 in March. Especially with these teams likely playing against each other next week, I don’t expect us to really see a preview of that round tonight, with both teams likely coasting here. With the Panthers in the second half of a back to back and having absolutely nothing to play for, I’d lean the Lightning win this one at home to even the season series, but I’m not betting it. Total’s a toss up to me, but I’m staying off this game completely.
Islanders vs. Capitals (7:30)
Shitty matchup in the Metro that means nothing tonight. The Islanders have had a terrible season, missing the playoffs as one of the most boring teams in the league. They’re coming off a 1-0 shutout win in Jersey on Sunday to end a three game losing streak. The Capitals haven’t given a shit since Ovi broke the goal record, having long locked up the first overall seed in the Eastern Conference and awaiting if they’re playing the Blue Jackets or Habs in the first round. They’re coming off two losses to the Jackets in a row off a 4-1 loss at home on Sunday and have just three wins in their last ten games. These teams split their first two games, with the Caps winning 5-4 at home in OT in November and the Isles winning 4-1 last Sunday after Ovechkin scored number 895 in Long Island in a game that didn’t matter whatsoever after he lit the lamp. Washington is the way better team here, but I’d fully expect half their lineup to sit out of these last two games of the regular season. Wouldn’t shock me in the slightly if the Isles win this one. I’d also slightly lean the over at 5.5, but I’m not touching this game.
Blues vs. Utah HC (8:00)
One of the few compelling matchups on the board today for a game that actually matters in the Central Division. The Blues are currently in the second Wild Card spot in the West, two point ahead of the Flames, who have a game in hand over them. St. Louis can clinch that playoff spot with a regulation win at home in their last game of the regular season tonight. If they don’t win tonight, then they need a little help, needing the Flames to lose at least one of their last two games (that gets a little bit more complex with OT losses for either team). Coming off a 4-3 shootout loss in Seattle on Saturday, they’re on a three game losing streak after they had gone on a twelve game win streak prior to that. Utah’s missing the playoffs, but they’re playing solid hockey right now. They’re in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 7-3 blowout win in Nashville last night, on a five game point streak with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games. Utah’s 2-1 against the Blues this year, winning 4-2 on the road in November, 4-2 at home in January, and losing 2-1 at home in February. With Utah in the second half of a back to back and this being a critical game for St. Louis, I like the Blues to win here. I was going to take them in regulation since that’s what they need to lock up their playoff spot officially, but I’ll go a little more safe here and take the Blues moneyline for a unit. I like the over too, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Wild vs. Ducks (8:00)
Not a great game here in the West, but Minnesota can lock in their spot in the playoffs as the first Wild Card with at least a point tonight. They’ve struggled with a ton of injuries this year, but they are getting healthy now at the right time for the playoffs, and coming off a 3-2 overtime win in Vancouver on Saturday, they have three wins in their last four games (all coming in OT). The Ducks have had a pretty lousy year, coming off two losses in a row after a 4-2 loss at home to the Avs on Sunday. The Wild won both games between these teams easily earlier this season on the road, winning 5-2 in November and 5-1 in December. I like them to complete the season sweep to get in the playoffs and face Vegas in the first round. I’ll take the Wild in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Flames vs. Golden Knights (9:00)
In the regular part of this season this would be a big mismatch in the Pacific, but there’s a lot riding on this game for the Flames, who are still have alive with a chance to make the playoffs. If Calgary wins both of their last two games in regulation, and either the Wild lose in regulation or the Blues lose in any fashion tonight, then the Flames are in. I don’t see that happening, and I hope it doesn’t since Calgary’s the boringest team in the league. Vegas is playing great hockey, with a 4-0-1 record in their last five games, coming off a 5-3 win at home against the Predators on Saturday, but they have nothing to play for, with the Pacific Division title locked up. The Knights are 3-0 this season against the Flames, winning 5-0 at home in October, 3-0 at home in December, then 3-2 in overtime a week and a half ago on the road. I would very slightly lean the Golden Knights win here on the road and end Calgary’s playoff dreams, and I’d slightly lean the under, but I don’t see any value to betting this game.
Kraken vs. Kings (10:30)
I could see this being a fun game in the Pacific tonight to close the night, but it’s a completely meaningless matchup. The Kraken have had a bad year, but they have won four of their last six games, coming off a 4-3 shootout win at home against the Blues late Saturday night (loss for me). The Kings have home ice in the first round locked up against the Oilers in second place in the Pacific, so this game means nothing. They’re in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 5-0 win in Edmonton last night, and they have 16 wins in their last 20 games. Seattle’s surprisingly 2-1 this season between these teams, losing 2-1 in LA in November, answering with a 4-2 win at home in January, and then 2-1 on the road last Monday. Since I’d expect the Kings in the second half of a back to back to sit a bunch of guys tonight and kind of mail this game in, so despite LA being the better team by far, I could definitely see the Kraken win this one. I’d also lean the under, but I’ll lay off this game.
Game Bets
.5u Maple Leafs ML (-162)
.5u Senators in regulation (-170)
.5u Blue Jackets ML (-148)
1u Blues ML (-155)
.5u Blues/Utah over 5.5 (-125)
.5u Wild in regulation (-170)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 560-492-14 (-58.48 units)
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