Following an incredible week at The Masters with Rory completing the grand slam in dramatic fashion, this week the PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, a signature event with a loaded field.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7213 yards (short for a PGA course), Pete Dye designed course, four Par 3s are all between 192-200 yards, three Par 5s (two are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~66% vs. ~62% tour average), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour with a lot of forced layups (269 yards vs. tour average 284 yards), driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, water hazards are in play on every hole, 54 bunkers, rough has been grown up a bit more the last few years, very tough greens to hit (~59% vs. ~66% tour average) which have some of the lowest GIR% on tour, second smallest greens on tour by a significant margin, well-guarded poa-trivialis overseeded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds with not many slopes or undulations but with some bowl shaped greens with runoffs, bunkers and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, swirling wind could play a big factor
Tournament Notes
- Course history seems to be more important than current form here since it’s a target golf style course, so knowing where to land the ball is very important
- SG: Approach here is twice as important as ARG and OTT on T10 finishes and about 3x as important on T5 finishes
- SG: ARG has been more important here than SG: OTT
- Before 2019, the last 6 winners prior had been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes (CT Pan trailed 2 strokes in 2019 going into the final round, Webb Simpson was in a 4 way tie for first in 2020, in 2021 Stewart Cink set a 54 hole tournament record and was in solo 1st). In 2022, Spieth continued the trend, 3 strokes back of the 54 hole lead. In 2023, Fitzpatrick was the 54 hole leader and last year Scheffler was as well.
- Only seven 54 hole leaders have won in the last 14 years (Webb in 2020 was in a 4 way tie for T1 after 54 holes, with Ancer, Hatton, Palmer, Cink, Fitzpatrick, and Scheffler)
- In 2019, 11 of the T15 in approach came T16 or better. In 2020, 7 of the T11 in approach came T8 or better. In 2021, 8 of the T10 in approach came T13 or better. Of the nine golfers that finished T3 or better in 2022, all besides Kuchar gained on approach, including the top 3 approach leaders for the week. In 2023, five of the T6 in approach finished T15 or better. Last year 10 of the 13 approach leaders finished T18 or better.
- No cut event
- Seven of the last 14 years this tournament has gone to a playoff
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Proximity 175-200 yards, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (24.9%), 150-175 yards (22.5%)
Corollary Courses
Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)
Field
72 golfers – Signature elevated event with most of the best players on the PGA Tour in the field (pretty much everyone besides Rory and Hideki), a stronger field than this event has had most years
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
Runner Up Last Year: Sahith Theegala (-16)
One and Done: Sepp Straka
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Thomas, Morikawa, Straka
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10900: +1200 – Although he hasn’t won this year he’s playing fantastic golf, two top 10s here with 9,31,26,7,64 finishes here, coming off his 14th last week at The Masters he has 14,10,2,17,17,2,54,2,28,22,16,4,13,14,2,4,4,16,9 finishes in his last 19 events, 4th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 7th in Good Drives, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 29th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 57th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 35th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 17th in Birdie+ Gained
Justin Thomas: 10200: +2400 – I think he maps out great for this course and I expect him to win this year, really good course history with 5,25,35,8,75,11 finishes here, 36,2,33,36,9,6,48,2,26,2,14 finishes in his last eleven events, 7th in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 50th in Good Drives, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 19th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Sepp Straka: 8800: +4500 – Once again the top player in my model (even above Scottie) and despite missing the cut last week at The Masters I’m going right back to him, his ballstriking has been elite this year, won already this year at the American Express, has played great here with 5,MC,3,59,33 finishes the last five years, MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15,MC,27,13,61,22 finishes in his last 16 events, 2nd in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 10th in Good Drives, 38th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 47th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained
Daniel Berger: 8300: +6050 – He’s been playing very well this year and seems to be fully back from his injury, some good course history with 21,13,3,33,72 finishes here, 21,30,20,15,25,12,2,MC,21,MC,2,62,20,39,35,7 finishes in his last 16 events, 35th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 8th in Good Drives, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 63rd in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 34th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 31st in Birdie+ Gained
Lucas Glover: 6900: +9000 – Has been very good this year and pops in my model, has played this course yearly with 33,MC,48,33,21,MC,32,32,33,18,MC,MC,69 finishes here dating all the way back to 2012, coming off his missed cut at The Masters he has MC,8,3,36,MC,31,MC,3,MC,21,30,42,24,3,3,13 finishes in his last 16 events, 6th in Approach, 35th in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives, 45th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 33rd in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 6th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 39th in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained, also taking the T6 each way at +1600
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- My biggest gambling win ever (on any sport) came here in 2017 when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on DraftKings on Easter Sunday
- Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
- I had Spieth here in 2023, who lost in a playoff to Fitzpatrick
- A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities
- Scottie probably wins this week, but I’m not betting him at +400 when he hasn’t won all year
Bets
Outrights
1u Collin Morikawa (+1200)
.5u Justin Thomas (+2400)
.3u Sepp Straka (+4500)
.2u Daniel Berger (+6050)
.2u Lucas Glover (+9000)
T6 Each Ways (w/ dead heat rules)
.2u Lucas Glover (+1600)
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