Winning night for me yesterday on the NHL, going 2-1 to win .48 units, a goal short on a sweep. Tonight we have a completely meaningless slate of seven games to close out the season, let’s go into the playoffs on a high note!
Now that all the playoff series are set, here’s my initial leans on each of them (I’ll have full long form blogs previewing each series in depth posted over the weekend, which are my favorite blogs to write every year):
Leafs in 6
Lightning in 7
Caps in 5
Canes in 5 (maybe even sweep)
Blues in 7
Avs in 7
Vegas sweep (maybe 5)
Kings in 7
Sabres vs. Flyers (7:00)
This terrible season for my Buffalo Sabres finally ends tonight with a lousy Eastern Conference matchup at home against yet another lousy team, the Flyers. Horrible game. After a run of eight wins in the span of nine games, my Sabres have now lost four games in a row, getting shut out 4-0 at home on Tuesday night against Toronto (pretty much a home game for the Leafs), in a boring game that they didn’t play too bad in. The Flyers are awful as well, but have played decent lately, coming into tonight with a 5-2-1 record in their last eight games after getting shut out 3-0 by the Blue Jackets on Tuesday night. Philly won both previous games between these teams at home, winning 5-2 in November and then 7-4 in March, with the Sabres falling apart late. I’d slightly lean Buffalo avoids the season sweep with a win at home tonight to end the season, but I don’t like it enough to bet on. I do want some action though, and I’ll take the over 6 for half a unit.
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Because this game is meaningless and the Leafs likely will be resting guys for the playoffs, I could see it being a pretty fun game in the Atlantic. Toronto’s going into the playoffs hot with the first seed in the Atlantic locked up, preparing for the Battle of Ontario against the Sens for the first round. Coming off a 4-0 shutout win in Buffalo on Tuesday in what probably felt like a home game for them (that all their stars surprisingly played in), they’re on a four game win streak with a 12-2-1 record in their last 15 games. The Red Wings missed the playoffs by six points, a disappointing season for them. They’re in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 5-2 win in Jersey last night for their third win in a row, all against playoff teams just mailing it in. Toronto’s 2-1 against Detroit this season, winning 3-1 at home in November, losing 4-2 in December, and then winning 5-2 later in December. With the Red Wings in the second half of a back to back on the road, I’d slightly lean even a resting Leafs team will beat them tonight, but I don’t like it enough to bet on at the -170. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet that either, so I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Senators vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
With both of these teams preparing for the playoffs, I’d expect this to be a snooze fest of game, with both of them likely resting guys. The Senators have played well, going into the Battle of Ontario in Toronto for the first round. They’re coming off a 4-3 overtime loss at home to the Blackhawks on Tuesday, but still have been good lately with a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games. The Hurricanes have been mailing it in for the last month, having had second place and an easy matchup against the Devils locked up for quite some time. They’re playing pretty lousy hockey lately, with just one win in their last seven games, in the second half of a back to back, coming off a 4-2 loss in Montreal last night (winner for me on the Habs clinching). These teams split their first two games, each getting a shutout in Carolina, with the Canes winning 4-0 at home in November and the Sens winning 3-0 on the road in December. I’d slightly lean Ottawa wins this game and I’d slightly lean the over, but I’m not touching this game whatsoever.
Rangers vs. Lightning (7:00)
Kind of a lousy matchup here in the East. The Rangers have had a bad year and are in disarray as an organization, missing the playoffs after winning the President’s Trophy and going to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. I’d anticipate them having a very interesting offseason after all the turmoil in MSG this year. They come into tonight off a 5-3 win on the road against the Panthers on Monday, just their second win in their last six games. The Lightning have home ice in the Battle of Florida and although they’ve had that locked up, they’re still playing well, on a six game point streak coming off a 5-1 win against the Panthers on Tuesday, with a 7-1-3 record in their last eleven games. Tampa won both games between these teams this year, 6-2 at home in December and 5-1 last Monday on the road. I’d lean they complete the season sweep tonight in MSG, but don’t like it enough to bet on, with guys probably resting for the playoffs tonight. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Penguins vs. Capitals (7:00)
It’s always a fun rivalry between the Pens and Caps, and Ovi and Sid. Two generational players that both broke records held by Wayne Gretzky this season, with Ovechkin passing him for the most goals in NHL history and Crosby passing him with 20 straight point per game seasons. Impressive and its been a joy and privilege to watch both of those guys play their entire careers. And that rivalry isn’t done yet, with Ovi confirming that he isn’t retiring. All that said, I don’t see this being all that great of a game tonight. The Capitals are in the one seed in the East after having a great season, getting ready to play the Habs in the first round of the playoffs with what should be a pretty easy matchup for them. They’ve pretty much been coasting through the last month, with just four wins in their last eleven games, coming off Dylan Strome scoring a hat trick in a 3-1 win on Long Island on Tuesday night. The Penguins have had an awful year, only better than the Flyers in the Metro Division. Coming off a 4-1 loss at home to the Bruins on Sunday, they do have a 4-2-1 record in their last seven games. Washington is 2-1 against the Pens this year, losing 4-2 at home in November, winning 4-1 at home in December, and then 8-3 on the road in February. I’d still lean the Caps win this one at home tonight, and I’d lean the over, but the best move here is staying off this game entirely, with Washington definitely not playing at 100% as they prepare for the playoffs and this being a big rivalry. I’ll lay off this game completely.
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders (7:00)
Decent matchup here in the Metro Division. The Blue Jackets were the last team to be eliminated from the playoffs this year, far exceeding expectations this season and being a fun team to watch all year. Coming off a 3-0 win in Philly on Tuesday, they’re on a five game win streak. The Islanders have had a lousy year, and have just three wins in their last 13 games, coming off a 3-1 loss at home to the Capitals on Tuesday. Columbus is 2-1 this season against the Isles, winning 2-0 at home in October, losing 3-1 on the road in January, and winning 4-3 in a shootout on Long Island last month. I’d lean the Jackets stay hot and end the season tonight with a win at home, but I don’t think they’re worth the -175 with the disappointment of just missing playoffs yesterday. I’d also lean the under, but not enough to bet that either.
Kings vs. Flames (9:30)
Boring game in the Pacific to end the regular season. The Kings have had a fantastic season with home ice when they open the playoffs against the Oilers on Monday night, and the best home record in the league. LA’s been hot going into the playoffs, on a four game win streak after a 6-5 win in Seattle on Tuesday, with just one loss in their last nine games. The Flames made a late push to try to get in the playoffs, definitely overachieving this year, but were eliminated on Tuesday with the Wild and Blues both winning. Calgary comes into tonight on a three game win streak after a 5-4 shootout win at home against the Golden Knights on Tuesday, with a 10-2-3 record in their last 15 games. The Flames won both previous games at home between these teams, 3-1 in November and 2-1 in January. I’d expect even with LA resting some guys for the playoffs, they avoid the season sweep and take this win streak into the playoffs. I’ll take the Kings for half a unit as my last bet of the regular season. I’d slightly lean the under, but don’t see any edge in betting it.
Game Bets
.5u Sabres/Flyers over 6 (-129)
.5u Lightning/Rangers over 6.5 (-112)
.5u Kings ML (-185)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Record: 566-495-14 (-57.2 units)
It’s been a pretty bad regular season for me this year, but let’s crush the playoffs and make a ton with that Vegas future to win the Cup from the first week of the season leading the way!
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