In a fun series to start the playoffs, we have the President’s Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets facing the second Wild Card team in the West, the Blues, who were the hottest team in the NHL after the 4 Nations break.

Winnipeg went 3-1 in the regular season against the Blues with a few close games. In the first game on October 22nd, the Jets won 3-2 on the road to keep Winnipeg undefeated at the time to start the year. St. Louis answered with a 4-1 win on the road on December 3rd. In the first game coming out of the 4 Nations break on February 22nd, with both Binnington and Hellebuyck getting the night off after the Canada vs. USA final, the Jets won 4-3 in a shootout in St. Louis. Winnipeg closed the season series with a 3-1 win at home on April 7th, ending the Blues twelve-game winning streak.

The Winnipeg Jets were fantastic this season, winning the President’s Trophy this year for the first time in franchise history with a 56-22-4 record, leading the way in the West the entire season. They won the Central Division by ten points over the Stars, starting the year on an eight game win streak with just one loss in their first 16 games, and ending the season on a 14-6 run, capped off with a 2-1 win in overtime at home against the Ducks on Wednesday. Winnipeg has a few key injuries they’re dealing with going into the playoffs, with Nikolaj Ehlers, their third highest scorer, out at least for this series and Gabe Vilardi, who’s out day to day.

The Jets had the fourth-highest scoring offense in the league this year, averaging 3.35 goals per game, on an average of 28.2 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.11) and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league. Winnipeg’s power play was the best in the NHL this season, scoring at a 28.9% rate. They were led by Kyle Connor, who had 97 points, 41 goals, and 56 assists this season.

Defensively, Winnipeg was the best team in the NHL this season, allowing an average of just 2.32 goals per game, on an average of 27.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.78) and the third-fewest high-danger shots. The Jets’ penalty kill was at 79.4%, ranking 13th in the league. Winnipeg was led by their star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, the obvious back to back Vezina winner and the current favorite to win MVP (which I’d expect goes to Draisaitl instead of him). Hellebuyck was once again the best goalie in the league this year, with an NHL-leading 2.01 GAA, 47 wins, and a .925 save percentage (only slightly lower than Anthony Stolarz’s .926).

The St. Louis Blues had an up and down season, pretty inconsistent in the first half of the year and then completely turning it around to be the hottest team in the NHL following the 4 Nations break. They started the season pretty lousy, and as soon as the Bruins fired Jim Montgomery on November 24th, the Blues, who at the time had a 9-12-1 record, fired head coach Drew Bannister and brought in Monty, who turned the team around. Going into the 4 Nations break in February, when Jordan Binnington won gold between the pipes for Canada, the Blues had a 25-26-5 record and completely turned the season around, as the hottest team in the league following the break. St. Louis finished the season in the second Wild Card in the West with a 44-30-8 record, going 19-4-3 after the break, which included an electric twelve-game winning streak. Dylan Holloway, who the Blues acquired in the offseason and was a big impact as their third highest scorer, will be out for the playoffs.

The Blues offense was in the middle of the pack this season. They averaged 3.05 goals per game, ranking 13th in the NHL, on an average of 26.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.67), only better than the Blackhawks and the fourth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The St. Louis power play ranked 16th in the league, capitalizing on 22.1% of their chances. They were led this year by Robert Thomas (81 points, 60 assists) and Jordan Kyrou (36 goals). Robert Thomas led the league in scoring after the 4 Nations break.

Defensively, St. Louis was pretty good defensively this year, allowing an average of 2.82 goals per game, the eleventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27.3 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.78), tied with the Jets and the tenth-fewest high-danger shots. The Blues’ penalty kill really struggled though this year, ranking sixth-worst in the league at 74.3%. Jordan Binnington, who’s a big inconsistent but can look like one of the best in the world when the stakes are high, as we saw when the Blues won the Cup in 2019 and in the 4 Nations, when a lot of people, myself included doubted him going into the tournament. This year he had a 2.69 GAA and .900 save percentage.

I don’t see either of these teams winning the Cup this year or even getting to the Western Conference Finals. The Jets have had their issues in the playoffs the last several year, last year getting smoked in five games by the Avalanche after getting bounced in five games by Vegas in the first round the previous year, with Hellebuyck struggling in both of those series. I feel like the Blues have the ability to make some magic and win a series or two under Monty, but Winnipeg’s still the far better team here. 

I considered betting on the Blues to win the series, but I don’t think it’s worth it at +160. So I’ll stay off a side to win this series and just play it game by game. I do like this series to go at least six games though, which I’ll take for 2 units.

I’d expect the games in this series to stay under, with two good defenses, two stellar goaltenders and the Blues not generating much in offensive chances. The under went 3-1 in the games between these teams this season, with the one that went over hitting with just 28 seconds left in regulation. Both of these teams trended under this season, with Jets games going 46-33-3 to the under and the under in St. Louis games going 40-36-6. I’ll start with the under tonight in Game 1 for half a unit, laying the kind of high -155.

Even though I think St. Louis could win the series, a series doesn’t really start until you lose on home ice. I do think the Jets win tonight at home in the whiteout to start the playoffs and tonight I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit.

Series Bets

2u Jets/Blues over 5.5 games (-168)

Game 1 Bets

.5u Jets in regulation (-125)

.5u Jets/Blues under 5.5 (-155)

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