I’m expecting this to be the best series of the first round as the #2 Dallas Stars face the #3 Colorado Avalanche. Both of these teams have been fantastic this year, and it’s one of the series that makes it disappointing that the NHL hasn’t gone back to the 1-8 seeding since it’s a shame that one of these teams will be eliminated in the first round. To add to the dramatics of this series, the biggest storyline is Mikko Rantanen facing his former team after getting traded twice this season, first from the Avs to the Hurricanes earlier in the year, and then to the Stars at the deadline.

All three regular season games between these teams this year were electric, all high scoring with the Avs going 2-1 and the home team winning all three games. The Stars won the first matchup 5-3 at home on November 29th, Colorado answered with a 6-3 win at home on January 18th, and their last meeting went to overtime with the Avalanche winning 4-3 at home on Cale Makar’s game winner 34 seconds into OT in Rantanen’s return to Colorado.

The Dallas Stars were very good this year, finishing in second place in the Central Division with a 50-26-6 record, ten points behind the President’s Trophy winning Jets and four points ahead of the Avs for home ice in the first round. They made the big move at the deadline of acquiring Rantanen, and they recently got Tyler Seguin back in the lineup, who was out a majority of the year with an injury. The Stars are missing their best player offensively though, with Jason Robertson out week to week with a lower-body injury. Dallas ended their season horribly, coasting for the last few week, heading into the playoffs on a seven game losing streak after a 5-1 loss in Nashville on Wednesday, and getting outshot in their last 13 games.

The Stars were very good on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they were the third-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 3.35 goals per game on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.25) and the 16th-most high-danger shots in the league. The Dallas power play was around league average, ranking 17th at 22%. Matt Duchene (82 points, 52 assists) and Jason Robertson (35 goals) led the Stars this year.

Dallas allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the NHL this season, an average of 2.71 per game on an average of 29 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 16th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.06) and the 17th-most high-danger shots, ranking right in the middle of the league. The Stars had the fourth-best penalty kill in the NHL at 82%. Jake Oettinger was once again one of the best goalies in the league, with 36 wins, a 2.59 GAA, .909 save percentage, and two shutouts.

The Colorado Avalanche had a very good year as well, and were the clear cut winners at the trade deadline. Finishing the season with a 49-29-4 record, four points behind the Stars. They bolstered their lineup big time this season, getting Martin Necas from the Hurricanes when they traded Rantanen, and then at the deadline, acquired Charlie Coyle from the Bruins in exchange for Casey Mittelstadt and got Brock Nelson from the Isles. They also completely revamped their goaltending mid-season. After starting the season looking brutal in the 0-4 start, the Avs were pretty solid the rest of the year, ending the season on Sunday with a 4-2 win in Anaheim. Colorado may get a huge addition this series with Gabriel Landeskog, the Avs’ captain who’s missed the last three years with a terrible knee injury, possibly coming back after he had a solid conditioning stint in the AHL last week.

Colorado wasn’t far behind the Stars, having a good year on both ends of the ice. They averaged 3.33 goals per game, the sixth-most in the NHL, on an average of 29.9 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.13) and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Avs power play was pretty solid, scoring at a 24.8% rate, ranking eighth in the NHL. To no surprise, last year’s MVP, Nathan MacKinnon was one of the best players in the league again this year, leading the Avalanche with 116 points, 32 goals, and 84 assists.

The Avalanche gave up and average of 2.82 goals per game, the eleventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 25.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.79) and the seventh-fewest high-danger shots. Colorado killed off 79.8% of their penalties, ranking twelfth in the NHL. MacKenzie Blackwood had a career year between the pipes after becoming the starter, with a 2.55 GAA and .912 save percentage, recording four shutouts this season.

I think the winner of this series goes on to beat the winner of the Jets vs. Blues series and advance to the Western Conference Finals. I don’t see the Stars winning the Cup, although it wouldn’t really be a huge shock if they did, while the Avs would be my second pick to lift Lord Stanley after Vegas, who I think they meet in the Western Conference Finals.

While I do think the Stars are very good, I think the Avalanche are the better team here and especially without Robertson, and with the way the Stars limped into the playoffs, I like the Avs to win this series, in a close series I think probably goes to seven games. I think the better underlying numbers defensively and the star power offensively lead to a Colorado win. I’ll also lay the -172 on the series to go at least six games for 1.5 units.

Expecting the Avalanche to win the series, I think they start it with a win here tonight on the road, and I’ll take them for a unit.

I think the totals in this game are pretty close to a toss up. The over hit in all three games between these teams this season, all high scoring games that averaged eight goals per game. On the year, totals in Avs games went 39-39-4 while the Stars trended under, with the under going 41-34-7 this year. I’ll lay off the totals in Game 1 and see how the series plays out.

Series Bets

2u Avalanche to win series (-155)

1.5u Avalanche/Stars over 5.5 games (-172)

Game 1 Bets

1u Avalanche ML (-155)

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