I wouldn’t anticipate this being a great series out West with the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights facing the first Wild Card Minnesota Wild. I think this ends up being a pretty quick series.

The Golden Knights, without much of a surprise swept the season series between these teams, winning the first game 3-2 on the road on December 15th, winning 4-1 at home on January 12th, and then dominating in a 5-1 blowout in Minnesota on March 25th.

The Vegas Golden Knights had a fantastic season, winning the Pacific Division with a 50-22-10 record, five points ahead of the Kings. They were very good at home in the Fortress with a 29-9-3 home record, but struggled on the road where they were just 21-13-7. Vegas was hot going into the playoffs, on a seven game point streak with an 11-2-2 record in their last 15 games, coming off a 4-1 win to cap off the season in Vancouver on Wednesday.

Vegas was fantastic on both ends of the ice this year. They scored the fifth-most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.34 per game on an average of 30.2 shots per game. They’ve generated the fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.32) and the third-most high-danger shots in the league. The Knights had the second-best power play in the league this season, scoring on 28.3% of their chances. Jack Eichel (94 points, 66 assists) and Pavel Dorofeyev (35 goals) led them in scoring this season.

The Knights were even better defensively, allowing an average of just 2.61 goals per game, the third-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 26.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.8) and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots. Vegas struggled on the penalty kill at just 75.7%, the seventh-worst in the league. Adin Hill was pretty good between the pipes this season, with 32 wins, a 2.47 GAA, a .907 save percentage, and four shutouts.

It’s been years since the Minnesota Wild have made it past the second round of the playoffs and I don’t see that happening this year either. They had a very up and down season, dealing with a ton of key injuries all season. The Wild just snuck into the playoffs with a 45-30-7 record, with it coming down to the last week of the season but did get two of their top players in Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back last week after they were both out for some significant time with injuries. Minnesota was hot to close the regular season and get in, with four wins in their last five games, all OT wins as they ended the year with a 3-2 win at home against the Ducks on Tuesday where they needed a point to clinch their playoff spot.

Minnesota wasn’t great on either end of the ice this year statistically. Offensively they really struggled, scoring an average of just 2.74 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.86) and the sixth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Wild power play was the 13th-worst in the NHL, scoring on 20.9% of their chances. Young star Matt Boldy led Minnesota in scoring with Kaprizov out for a good chunk of the year, with 73 points, 27 goals, and 46 assists.

The Wild were around league average defensively, allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game, ranking 15th in the NHL, on an average of 29.6 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the eleventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.87) and the fourth-fewest high-danger shots. Minnesota was the third-worst in the league at killing penalties, at just 72.4%. Filip Gustavsson led the way in goal for the Wild, with 31 wins, a 2.56 GAA, a .914 save percentage, and five shutouts.

Vegas is the far better team in this series and my pick to win the Stanley Cup, just as they were in the first week of the season when I took my future on them to win it at +1800. I expect them to cruise through this first round in probably five game, and maybe even sweep the series. Not only am I letting my future ride, but I’m doubling down on it with 3 units on the Knights to win the series in six games or less, along with a half unit shot at them at +200 to win it in four or five games.

Expecting the Golden Knights to dominate this series, I like them to win Game 1 tonight at home in the Fortress pretty easily and I’ll triple down on them with 2 units on Vegas in regulation.

I’d lean the games in this series trend under. The under hit in two of the three games they played this season and both teams far trended under, with the under going 43-36-3 in Vegas games and 44-35-3 in Minnesota games. I’ll start off with the under in Game 1 for half a unit.

Futures

2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)

Series Bets

3u Golden Knights to win series in six games or less (-110)

.5u Golden Knights to win series in five games or less (+200)

Game 1 Bets

2u Golden Knights in regulation (-135)

.5u Golden Knights/Wild under 5.5 (-115)

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