I don’t expect a great series here as the #2 seed Carolina Hurricanes take on the #3 seed New Jersey Devils. The puck drops this afternoon for an Easter Sunday start in Raleigh.

These teams split the season series between them, with all four games won at home. The Hurricanes won 4-2 at home on October 15th, the Devils answered with a 4-2 home win on November 21st, then again Jersey won at home on December 27th, with the Canes answering back the following night with a 5-2 win at home in the second half of a home and home.

The Carolina Hurricanes have had a very good season, solidified in second place in the Metro pretty much the entire year. They finished the season with a 47-30-5 record, eight points ahead of Jersey for home ice and twelve behind the Eastern Conference leading Capitals. The Canes didn’t finish the season great, going into the playoffs with just one win in their last eight games, going into the playoffs on a three game losing streak, ending the year with a 7-5 loss in Ottawa on Thursday.

The Hurricanes were really solid this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they ranked ninth in scoring, averaging 3.24 goals per game on an average of 31.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.55) in the NHL and the fifth-most high-danger shots in the league. Carolina’s power play wasn’t great this year, scoring at just an 18.7% rate, the eighth-lowest in the NHL. They were led this season by Sebastian Aho (74 points, 45 assists) and Seth Jarvis (32 goals).

Defensively Carolina was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.81 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 24.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the tenth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.86) and the 13th-most high-danger shots. The Hurricanes had the best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 83.6%. Freddy Andersen is expected to start in goal. This season he had a 2.50 GAA and .899 save percentage with Pyotr Kochetkov backing him up with a 2.60 GAA and .898 save percentage.

The New Jersey Devils didn’t have the best year, with a 42-33-7 record this season, holding onto third place in a pretty weak Metro Division, finishing the season two points ahead of Columbus and eight behind Carolina. They lost Jack Hughes, who was injured after a collision with Jack Eichel and had to have shoulder surgery, ending his season. Finishing the season with a 5-2 loss at home to the Red Wings, they had just one win in their last five games.

The Devils struggled offensively this year, scoring an average of 2.93 goals per game, the 13th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28.1 shots per game. They’ve generated the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.34) and the second-most high-danger shots in the league. Jersey’s power play was very good, scoring on 28.2% of their chances, the third-most in the league. Jesper Bratt (88 points, 67 assists) and Nico Hischier (35 goals) led the Devils this season without Jack Hughes in the lineup.

Jersey was very good defensively this season, allowing just the fifth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.68 goals per game, on an average of 26.4 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 13th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.94) and the 14th-fewest high-danger shots. The Devils penalty kill, at 82.7% was the second-best in the league, only behind Carolina. Jacob Markstrom had a good year, with 26 wins, a 2.50 GAA, a .900 save percentage, and four shutouts.

I don’t see this series being competitive. I fully expect Carolina to win this series in probably five games, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up sweeping the Devils. I just don’t see a way the Devils can hang in there without Jack Hughes. I’ll take the Hurricanes to win the series in six games or less for 2.5 units.

Expecting the Hurricanes to win this series pretty quickly, I like them to win Game 1 at home today in pretty easy fashion. I’ll take the Canes in regulation for a unit.

Although all four games between these teams this season hit the over, I’d lean the games in this series trend under. Both of these teams trended under this year, with the under going 40-34-8 in Canes games and 45-32-3 in Devils games. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 and evaluate it from there.

Series Bets

2.5u Hurricanes in six games or less (-115)

Game 1 Bets

1u Hurricanes in regulation (-135)

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