There should be plenty of fireworks with a fun first round matchup of the Battle of Ontario between the Atlantic Division winning Toronto Maple Leafs and the first Wild Card, Ottawa Senators.

Despite the Leafs being the better team all season, the Senators actually swept the season series in the regular season between these teams with a 3-0 shutout on the road on November 12th, a 2-1 win at home on January 25th, and a 4-2 win in Toronto on March 15th.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had a fantastic season this year, winning the Atlantic Division, which is huge for them to avoid playing one of the Florida teams in the first round and then getting to play the winner of Panthers/Lightning after they beat each other up in the Battle of Florida. The Leafs finished the season 52-26-4, six points ahead of the Lightning. I think this could finally be the year that Toronto makes a run, and although they’re not my pick to win the Eastern Conference, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they end up in the Cup Finals.

The Maple Leafs were very good on both ends of the ice this season. They averaged 3.26 goals per game, the seventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 28 shots per game. They’ve generated the eleventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.16) and the seventh-most high-danger shots in the league. The Leafs’ power play clicked at a 24.8% rate this season, ranking ninth in the NHL. Mitch Marner (102 points, 75 assists) and William Nylander (45 goals) led Toronto this year in scoring with Auston Matthews right in the mix as well. 

Defensively Toronto was fantastic as well, for the first time that I can ever remember. They allowed an average of 2.79 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.3 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.22) and the twelfth-most high-danger shots. The Leafs penalty kill was 17th in the league at 77.9%. They’ve had their best goaltending in years, with Anthony Stolarz leading the way with a 2.14 GAA and a league-leading .926 save percentage, with Joseph Woll right behind him with a 2.73 GAA and .909 save percentage.

The Ottawa Senators had a very good year, making the playoffs for the first time since 2017, the first time we’ll see Brady Tkachuk appear in the playoffs, which I’m pretty hyped to see. The Sens were comfortably the first Wild Card in the Eastern Conference with a 45-30-7 record. They finished a point back from the Panthers and six ahead of the Habs. Finishing the regular season with a 7-5 win at home against Carolina on Thursday, with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games.

The Senators struggled a bit offensively this season, scoring an average of 2.95 goals per game, the 15th-fewest in the league, on an average of 29.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.05) and the 15th-fewest high-danger shots in the league. Ottawa’s power play scored on 23.7% of their opportunities, ranking twelfth in the NHL. Tim Stutzle (79 points, 55 assists) and Brady Tkachuk (29 goals) led the Sens in scoring this year.

Defensively, Ottawa was pretty solid this year. They allowed the 13th-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.93 goals per game, on an average of 28.6 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 15th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.09) and the ninth-most high-danger shots. The Sens penalty kill wasn’t great, at 77.7%, ranking 19th in the league. Linus Ullmark was solid between the pipes with a 2.72 GAA, a .910 save percentage and four shootouts.

Although the Sens were pretty solid this year and I do think they win a couple games in this series, Toronto’s an elite team this season and I expected them to win it. They’re -190, which is I think overpriced. I’ll play this series game by game. I also considered betting the series to go at least 6 games, but at the -168 price, if I think Ottawa wins two games, then I’m better off just betting the games were that happens. I’m not touching any series props on this one.

I do like the Leafs to win Game 1 tonight, which I’ll take for a unit.

I thin the totals in this series are a complete toss up. The games in the regular season series between these rivals went under 5.5 in two of the three games. Both teams trended slightly under on the season, with the under in Leafs games going 40-38-4 and 39-35-8 in Sens games. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 tonight, and evaluate it as the series goes on.

Series Bets

None

Game 1 Bets

1u Maple Leafs ML (-170)

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