Another great night yesterday on the NHL playoffs, as I went 3-1 to win 3.42 units, a buzzer beater for a bad beat on the Vegas under away from the sweep. Tonight two more series begin along with two Game 2s. Let’s keep crushing it!
Capitals vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Tonight the Eastern Conference winning Washington Capitals start the playoffs with a pretty favorable matchup against the last team to get into the playoffs, the second Wild Card Montreal Canadiens. This should be a fun series, but I don’t see it going very long, which I broke down in depth in my blog previewing this series this afternoon. It was a fun year for Montreal, and I can see them maybe win a game, but this is just way too lopsided of a matchup and the Habs just aren’t strong enough to compete in this series. The Capitals are the far better team here and I expect them to knock off the Habs in probably five games. Washington’s -320 to win this series, which is pretty close to the price I expected. I’ll take them win the series in six games or less for 3 units. I thought about adding them to win it in five, but at +155, I’m better off just betting it game by game. I expect the Caps to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, but don’t see them getting past whichever of the three teams come out of the Atlantic. Expecting them to win this series pretty easily, I like the Capitals to win Game 1 at home pretty easily tonight and I’ll take them in regulation for 1.5 units. I’d lean the games in this series trend over. In the three games these teams played during the regular season, the over went 1-1-1. Both teams slightly trended over, with the over going 38-37-7 in Caps games and 40-37-5 in Habs games. With the total at 6.5 tonight for Game 1, I’ll lay off it and ride it out game by game.
Jets vs. Blues (7:30)
Going into this series, despite the Jets winning the President’s Trophy and the Blues being the last team into the playoffs out West, I said that I think St. Louis can make some noise and could win this series. Game 1 was a very close game on Saturday night, one that was definitely much closer than the score showed. The Blues had a 3-2 lead going into the third period and we had a tied game until Kyle Connor scored the game winner for Winnipeg with just 1:36 left in regulation on an incredible goal before Adam Lowry capped it off with an empty netter. Early in the game, I didn’t think the Jets looked good, especially Connor Hellebuyck, who gave up three goals on just 17 shots he saw in that game. Before the game tying goal, the Jets were only leading by an expected goal rate of 2.16-1.82. I do think Winnipeg wins this one at home again and Hellebuyck has a much better game, and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the under again, which didn’t have a chance in Game 1, but don’t like it enough to bet on at -145 for the 5.5. I’ll most than likely take the Blues in Game 3 at home on Thursday night.
Stars vs. Avalanche (9:30)
The Avalanche won Game 1 of this series in a blowout, winning 5-1 on the road, but I actually though that game was a lot closer than the score looked, with it being 3-1 before MacKinnon scored his second of the game on the empty net to go up 4-1 with 3:08 left in regulation. Regardless though, Colorado was fantastic in that game, capitalizing at the right times and smothering the Stars’ chances, with awesome goaltending from Mac Blackwood in his playoff debut. The Avs are likely to get another boost to the lineup tonight with Gabriel Landeskog activated off the IR today and although it hasn’t been confirmed yet, can make his first NHL appearance since they lifted the Cup in 2022. I like Colorado to win again here after taking home ice in the series, and I’ll take them for a unit despite this feeling like a must win for Dallas, although they did go down 2-0 in the first round at home to Vegas last year before coming back to win the series in seven games. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5 in what should be a lower scoring game than Game 1.
Kings vs. Oilers (10:00)
For the fourth straight season, we get another great first round matchup in the Pacific Division between the #2 LA Kings and the #3 Edmonton Oilers. I’d expect this to be a fantastic series out West, which I just broke down in depth. Both of these teams had their inconsistency’s but had solid seasons. The Oilers have knocked off the Kings each of the last three years, in seven games in 2022, six games in 2023, and in five last year on their way to the Cup Finals. I think this season sets up what should be the best first round series between these teams of those four years. I think out of the last four years, the Kings have the best chance of winning this series and bouncing the Oilers. Although they’re not all that great offensively, the defense and goaltending has been far better than Edmonton’s this year. They don’t have the x-factor though of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who can completely take over a series. I still think LA wins this series and advances here, with a huge boost of having home ice. I’ll take the Kings to win the series at a nice +110 price for 1.5 units. I do love this series to go six or seven games though, and I’ll lay the -180 on that for 1.5 units along with betting it game by game. I like the Kings to win Game 1 at home tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the games in this series tend to go under, with these teams giving up the fewest expected goals in the league. Of the four games they played in the regular season, the under hit in three of those games pretty easily. Both teams trended under in the regular season with the under going 46-33-3 in Kings games and 44-35-3 in Oilers games. The playoffs is a whole other animal though, so I’ll lay off the total in Game 1 and evaluate the totals as the series goes on.
Game Bets
1.5u Capitals in regulation (-115)
.5u Jets in regulation (-115)
1u Avalanche ML (-150)
.5u Kings ML (-130)
Series Bets
2u Jets/Blues over 5.5 games (-168)
2u Avalanche to win series (-155)
1.5u Avalanche/Stars over 5.5 games (-172)
2.5u Hurricanes to win series in six games or less (-115)
3u Golden Knights to win series in six games or less (-110)
.5u Golden Knights to win series in five games or less (+200)
3u Capitals to win series in six games or less (-145)
1.5u Kings to win series (+110)
1.5u Oilers/Kings over 5.5 games (-180)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Records
Regular Season: 567-497-14 (-58.18 units)
Round 1: 5-2 (+4.14 units)
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