Tonight the Eastern Conference winning Washington Capitals start the playoffs with a pretty favorable matchup against the last team to get into the playoffs, the second Wild Card Montreal Canadiens. This should be a fun series, but I don’t see it going very long.

The Caps went 2-0-1 in the regular season series against the Habs this year. On Halloween they won the first game 6-3 at home, then won 4-2 on the road in Montreal on December 7th, before losing their last meeting 3-2 in overtime on the road on Nick Suzuki’s game winner.

The Washington Capitals had a fantastic season on the back of Alex Ovechkin making history and breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record to become the NHL’s all time leading goal scorer, in incredible fashion. It was a joy to watch Ovi’s chase, the biggest story in the league this season. The Caps had a spectacular year along the way, going from being the last team in the playoffs last year to the first team in this year, winning the East with a 51-22-9 record. They won the Metro by twelve points over the Hurricanes. Washington coasted through the last month of the season, finishing the year with just four wins in their last twelve games, ending the season with a 5-2 loss in Pittsburgh on Thursday night.

The Capitals were awesome on both ends of the ice this season. They were the second-highest scoring team in the NHL this year, average 3.49 goals per game, on an average of 27.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the sixth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.3) and the fourth-most high-danger shots in the league. The Washington power play clicked at a 23.5% rate, ranking 13th in the NHL. Dylan Strome led the Caps in points (82) and assists (53) while at the age of 39, even missing part of the season with a broken leg that he came back from in record time, Alex Ovechkin led them in goals, with 44 on his way to passing Gretzky. Truly incredible.

Defensively Washington was very good too. They allowed an average of just 2.79 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 15th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.01) and the 16th-fewest high-danger shots. The Caps were the fourth-best team on the penalty kill this year, killing off 82% of their penalties. Logan Thompson, acquired in the offseason from Vegas, was very good between the pipes with 31 wins, a 2.49 GAA, a .910 save percentage, and two shutouts.

The Montreal Canadiens took a nice step forward with their young core this year, getting into the playoffs on the last night of their season with a 4-2 win over the Hurricanes on Wednesday night, two points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets. They finished fifth in the Atlantic Division, six points back from the Senators, with a 40-31-11 record. The Habs were a bit inconsistent this year, going on runs and were hot to close out the regular season, with a 7-1-2 record in their last ten games.

The Habs weren’t all that great statistically on either end of the ice this year. They scored an average of 2.96 goals per game, the 16th-fewest in the league, on an average of just 25.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.9) and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. Montreal scored on 20.1% of their power play chances, the tenth-worst in the NHL.

The Canadiens were led by their young core of Nick Suzuki (89 points), Cole Caufield (37 goals), and Calder-favorite Lane Hutson (60 assists).

Montreal was even worse defensively, giving up the tenth-most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.18 goals per game, on an average of 29 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.42) and the third-most high-danger shots. The Habs’ penalty kill was pretty good, ranking ninth in the NHL at 80.9%. Sam Montembeault had a good year in goal, with 21 wins, four shutouts, a 2.82 GAA, and a .902 save percentage. 

It was a fun year for Montreal, and I can see them maybe win a game, but this is just way too lopsided of a matchup and the Habs just aren’t strong enough to compete in this series. The Capitals are the far better team here and I expect them to knock off the Habs in probably five games. Washington’s -320 to win this series, which is pretty close to the price I expected. I’ll take them win the series in six games or less for 3 units. I thought about adding them to win it in five, but at +155, I’m better off just betting it game by game. I expect the Caps to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, but don’t see them getting past whichever of the three teams come out of the Atlantic.

Expecting them to win this series pretty easily, I like the Capitals to win Game 1 at home pretty easily tonight and I’ll take them in regulation for 1.5 units.

I’d lean the games in this series trend over. In the three games these teams played during the regular season, the over went 1-1-1. Both teams slightly trended over, with the over going 38-37-7 in Caps games and 40-37-5 in Habs games. With the total at 6.5 tonight for Game 1, I’ll lay off it and ride it out game by game.

Series Bets

3u Capitals to win series in six games or less (-145)

Game 1 Bets

1.5u Capitals in regulation (-115)

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