For the fourth straight season, we get another great first round matchup in the Pacific Division between the #2 LA Kings and the #3 Edmonton Oilers. I’d expect this to be a fantastic series out West. Both of these teams had their inconsistency’s but had solid seasons. The Oilers have knocked off the Kings each of the last three years, in seven games in 2022, six games in 2023, and in five last year on their way to the Cup Finals. I think this season sets up what should be the best first round series between these teams of those four years.

The Kings went 3-1 against Edmonton this season, all with wild results. The first game went to overtime in LA, with the Kings winning 4-3 on Quinton Byfield’s game winner at home in OT on December 28th. The Oilers answered back with a 1-0 shutout win at home on January 13th. The Kings got a shutout of their own to answer back, winning 3-0 at home on April 5th, and then ended the season series with yet another shutout, winning 5-0 on the road in Edmonton (against a pretty depleted Oilers team last Monday.

The LA Kings were fantastic this year, finishing second in the Pacific, five points back from Vegas and four ahead of the Oilers for home ice in the first round. They finished the season with a 48-25-9 record, with the best home record in the league, going a very impressive 31-6-4 at crypto.com Arena. Although they lost their last game of the season, losing 5-1 at home in a meaningless game against Calgary on Thursday, the Kings were one of the hottest teams in the league to close the regular season with just five losses in their last 22 games.

Offensively the Kings were pretty average this year, scoring an average of 3.04 goals per game, ranking 14th in the league, on an average of 28.1 shots per game. They’ve generated the 14th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.02) and the 13th-fewest high-danger shots in the league. LA’s power play struggled this year, scoring at just a 17.9% rate, the sixth-lowest in the NHL. Adrian Kempe (73 points, 35 goals) and future hall of famer Anze Kopitar (46 assists) led the Kings in scoring this year.

For their offense being middle of the road, the LA defense was spectacular, allowing an average of just 2.48 goals per game, the second-fewest in the NHL behind the President’s Trophy winning Jets, on an average of just 25.5 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.57) in the NHL and the fewest high-danger shots. The Kings were solid on the penalty kill at 81.4%, eighth-best in the league. Former Cup Champ Darcy Kuemper had a really good year in goal, with 31 wins, five shutouts, a 2.02 GAA, and a .922 save percentage this season.

The Edmonton Oilers, after making a run to an incredible Stanley Cup Finals last year, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to lose in seven games, they struggled with a bunch of key injuries this season, with Connor McDavid and MVP-candidate (and my pick to win the Hart Trophy this year) Leon Draisaitl, both missing time through the season. Despite that, they still made the playoffs in the third seed in the Pacific with a 48-29-5 record, five points ahead of the Flames, and four behind LA. After getting healthy they closes the season pretty well, with four wins in the third five games, winning with a 3-0 shutout in San Jose on Wednesday in their last game of the regular season.

Edmonton was eleventh in scoring this season, averaging 3.16 goals per game on a league-leading average of 32 shots per game. They’ve generated the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.34) and the tenth-most high-danger shots in the league. Although they took a step back from last year when they had the most lethal power play in NHL history, the power play was still good for the Oilers this year, scoring on 23.7% of their chances, the eleventh-best in the league. Despite injuries, Leon Draisaitl led the NHL with 52 goals this season, and was third in the league with 106 points. Connor McDavid led Edmonton in assists with 74 this year.

The Oilers were in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing an average of 2.87 goals per game, 14th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.76), only behind the Kings and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. Edmonton killed off 78.2% of their penalties, ranking 16th in the NHL. The goaltending for the Oilers struggled a bit again this year. Stuart Skinner had 26 wins, a 2.81 GAA, a .896 save percentage, and three shutouts with Cal Pickard backing him up with 22 wins, a 2.71 GAA, and a .900 save percentage. Not great for either of those guys.

I think out of the last four years, the Kings have the best chance of winning this series and bouncing the Oilers. Although they’re not all that great offensively, the defense and goaltending has been far better than Edmonton’s this year. They don’t have the x-factor though of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who can completely take over a series. I still think LA wins this series and advances here, with a huge boost of having home ice. I’ll take the Kings to win the series at a nice +110 price for 1.5 units. I do love this series to go six or seven games though, and I’ll lay the -180 on that for 1.5 units along with betting it game by game.

I like the Kings to win Game 1 at home tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit.

I’d lean the games in this series tend to go under, with these teams giving up the fewest expected goals in the league. Of the four games they played in the regular season, the under hit in three of those games pretty easily. Both teams trended under in the regular season with the under going 46-33-3 in Kings games and 44-35-3 in Oilers games.

The playoffs is a whole other animal though, so I’ll lay off the total in Game 1 and evaluate the totals as the series goes on.

Series Bets

1.5u Kings to win series (+110)

1.5u Oilers/Kings over 5.5 games (-180)

Game 1 Bets

.5u Kings ML (-130)

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