We once again get an incredible Battle of Florida in the Atlantic Division as the final series to start of the first round begins tonight in Tampa, with the 2 seed Tampa Bay Lightning facing their rival 3 seed Florida Panthers, the defending Stanley Cup Champions. I’m expecting a spectacular seven games between these teams in a hard-hitting, electric series.

These state of Florida rivals split their series series, each winning once at home and once on the road. The Panthers won the first matchup in Tampa, 4-2 on December 22nd, a very close game with Reinhart capping it off with an empty netter with 31 seconds left in regulation. The Lightning answered back with a 4-0 shutout win the following night in Lauderdale the second half of a back to back, home and home. Florida won the next game 2-1 at home on March 3rd. The Lightning ended the season series with a dominant 5-1 win at home last Tuesday, but half of the Panthers were out for that game to get healthy for playoffs.

The Tampa Bay Lightning had a fantastic season, finishing the year in second place in the Atlantic with a 47-27-8 record, six points behind the Leafs and four ahead of the Panthers for home ice in this first round. They finished the year with a 4-0 shutout in New York in a meaningless game against the Rangers, but were solid to end the year, with a 7-2-3 record in their last twelve games.

The Lightning offense led the league in scoring this year, averaging 3.56 goals per game on an average of 28.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the eighth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.27) and the eleventh-most high-danger shots in the league. The Tampa power play was very good, scoring at a 25.9% rate, ranking fifth in the NHL. Nikita Kucherov led the NHL with 121 points 84 assists in yet another fantastic season. Brayden Point led the Bolts with 42 goals.

Tampa was fantastic defensively as well this season, allowing the fourth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.63 goals per game on an average of 28.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the twelfth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.92) and the twelfth-fewest high-danger shots. The Bolts had the sixth-best penalty kill in the league, killing off 81.6% of their penalties. Andre Vasilevskiy had yet another very good, consistent year in goal, with 38 wins, six shutouts, a 2.18 GAA, and a .921 save percentage.

The Panthers had a lot of up and downs this year after winning the Cup last season and going to the Cup Finals the past two years. They finished the season four points back from the Lightning and a point ahead of Ottawa with a 47-31-4 record. Florida dealt with injuries to several key players, who will all be good to go and ready to join the lineup tomorrow when they start the series, including Matthew Tkachuk. They’ll also get Aaron Ekblad back this series, who missed time due to a suspension for PEDs. At the trade deadline, the Cup Champs made the most surprising move, bringing in Brad Marchand from the Bruins. Full rat line coming in the playoffs of him, Tkachuk, and Bennett the Menace.

Florida’s offense wasn’t all that special this year, averaging 3 goals per game, 15th-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.6 shots per game, the third-most in the league. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.45) and the most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers scored on 23.5% of their power play chances, ranking 13th in the NHL. Sam Reinhart (81 points, 39 goals) and Aleksander Barkov (51 assists) led Florida in scoring this year.

The Panthers were really solid on the back end with their hard-hitting defense. They allowed an average of 2.72 goals per game, the seventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 26.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.84) and the eleventh-fewest high-danger shots. Florida killed off 80.7% of their penalties, ranking tenth in the league. Sergei Bobrovsky was pretty good in goal this year, with 33 wins, five shutouts, a 2.44 GAA, and a .906 save percentage.

I think this is going to be easily the best series of the first round and it’s pretty much a complete toss up on who wins it. I’d slightly lean the Lightning get the series win this season, but I don’t like it enough to bet on. I love this series to go at least six or probably seven games. I’ll lay the -184 on the series to go over 5.5 games for 2.5 units.

I’d lean the games in this series tend to trend over. The over 5.5 in the season series between these teams went 2-2, and the over 6 went 0-2-2. There really aren’t great trends to back up that I like the over, with the total in Lightning games going 38-38-6 and in Panthers games going 44-36-2 to the under. I just think we end up getting a ton of penalties and power play goals with that extra energy in this series that leads to more goals. To get some action here, I’ll take the over for half a unit tomorrow night in Game 1.

I’d lean the Lightning win Game 1 of this series at home tomorrow night, but don’t like it enough to bet on.

Series Bets

2.5u Panthers/Lightning over 5.5 games (-184)

Game 1 Bets

.5u Lightning/Panthers over 5.5 (-108)

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