Yesterday was my worst night of the NHL playoffs with the brutal Leafs loss and the Kings letting me down, with my only losses being my series bets on the Canes, so I ended up going 2-8 to lose 7.7 units. Brutal. Let’s bounce back on tonight’s three Game 5s.
Game 5: Capitals vs. Canadiens (7:00)
The Capitals bounced back nicely in Game 4 on the road on Sunday night with a fantastic 5-2 win on the road, featuring a hit by Tom Wilson that I think ended the series, a nice bounce back from the 6-3 loss they took in Game 3. The Habs are now on the brink of elimination, and as I said going into the series, Montreal probably gets a win, but this series is over in five games. I fully expect Washington to end this tonight to cash my 3 unit play on them to win it in six games or less. I have two chances at winning it, and I’ll double down on Washington here for another unit. I like the over as well with it being an elimination game and I’ll take the over 6 for half a unit.
Game 5: Lightning vs. Panthers (7:30)
The Lightning, who I originally thought were going to win this series, are now on the brink of elimination by their rival Panthers after a complete collapse at the end of Game 4, giving up a 2-1 lead with 3:47 left in regulation, allowing two goals in the span of eleven seconds to fall 4-2 with the empty netter to follow it. I have 4.6 units to win 2.5 on the series to go over 5.5 games, which is now just Lightning ML tonight. I don’t see that happening. I’ll buy out of most of that with 3.5 units on the Panthers tonight, limiting my loss to around 1.2 units regardless of result (1.1 unit loss if Florida wins, 1.28 unit loss if Tampa wins). That’s the smart move. If I didn’t have that series bet, I’d just take Florida for a unit. I’ll also take the over for half a unit.
Game 5: Jets vs. Blues (9:30)
This series has been spectacular, and a ton of fun to watch, tied at 2 wins for each of these teams, although the Blues I think have been the better team in the series. They were the last team in the West to make the playoffs, but the hottest team in the NHL going in, and although Connor Hellebuyck is the MVP favorite to go along with his pretty much guaranteed Vezina again, he turned back into a pumpkin in the playoffs and has looked awful between the pipes for his President’s Trophy winning Jets. St. Louis dominated both home games, winning 7-2 in Game 3 and then 5-1 in Game 4 and I thought they looked good in both of the road games they lost in Winnipeg. We go back to the whiteout in Winnipeg tonight, so the Jets should win here, but I love the value on the Blues, who I’ll take for half a unit. I also like the over, which I’ll take for half a unit as well.
Game Bets
1u Capitals ML (-192)
.5u Capitals/Canadiens over 6 (-113)
3.5u Panthers ML (-108)
.5u Lightning/Panthers over 5.5 (-115)
.5u Blues ML (+150)
.5u Jets/Blues over 5.5 (+120)
Series Bets
2u Avalanche to win series (-155)
3u Golden Knights to win series in six games or less (-110)
3u Capitals to win series in six games or less (-145)
1.5u Kings to win series (+110)
2.5u Panthers/Lightning over 5.5 games (-184)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Records
Regular Season: 567-497-14 (-58.18 units)
Round 1: 27-29 (-7.5 units)
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A Town's Zone 