Coming off my win on Justin Thomas and then the teams event that I skipped betting on, this week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson with a pretty bad field.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7569 yards, one of the easiest courses on tour, six of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, three of the Par 3s are over 216 yards, all three Par 5s are driveable (between 547-569 yards) as well as the 330 yard Par 4 14th, wide Zoysia grass (most prevalent in Asia and Australia) fairways with a good amount of roll, rough is pretty light but may be grown up a bit more this year, trees and bunkers in play off the tee and water is in play on 13 holes with a creek running through a majority of the course, 83 bunkers, much longer driving distance than tour average (294 yards vs. 284 yards), higher than tour average GIR % (~71% vs. ~66%) and even easiest from inside 125 yards (88%, the fourth easiest on tour), fourth easiest birdie+ % on tour insides 125 yard (26.5%), above average sized bentgrass greens with bunkers in play, second easiest scrambling course on tour so it’s easy to make up for missing greens, easy birdiefest course that’s easy to score on with the third most birdies and fifth most eagles of any course on tour
Tournament Notes
- 2021 was the first season this event was held here at TPC Craig Ranch, it used to be held at Trinity Forest Golf Club and TPC Four Seasons prior to that
- This course previously hosted the Nationwide Tour Championship (now Korn Ferry Tour) in 2012 (James Hahn and Adam Hadwin came 2nd and 3rd that week) and 2008 (Leishman came T7)
- Some of the holes on this course are so easy that if you don’t make birdie, you’re actually losing strokes on the field
- In 2023 this event was the week before the PGA Championship and got a stronger field
- 6 of the top 7 finishers in 2022 gained strokes on the Par 3s, which are the hardest holes on the course
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Birdie+ Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (36.9%)
Field
156 golfers – Horrible field strength besides Scheffler
Defending Champion: Taylor Pendrith (-23)
Runner Up Last Year: Ben Kohles (-22)
One and Done: Stephan Jaeger
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Stephan Jaeger
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 13300: +420 – The best golfer in the world but he still hasn’t won this year, he’s by far the best golfer in this field and is at home in Texas so even with his lousy odds I think he wins, didn’t play this event last year but had T5,T15,T47 finishes here the previous three years, 8,4,2,20,11,3,25,9 finishes this season, 1st in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 46th in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, smaller bet than usual for me at these odds
Stephan Jaeger: 9300: +4400 – Has been great on approach recently and has gained an average of 3.4 strokes on approach in his last five events, T20,T11,T38 finishes here the last three years, 32,52,11,36,20,MC,6,44,40,MC,3,36 finishes this season, 18th in Approach, 121st in SG: OTT, 37th in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 41st in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 75th in Par 5 Scoring, 46th in Proximity 200+ yards, 32nd in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 48th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Ryan Gerard: 8600: +6000 – Playing great with some solid results recently with 27,2,9,57,42,MC,25,17,15,51,37 finishes this season, MC his only time here in 2023, RECENT FORM, 10th in Approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 8th in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 31st in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 37th in Par 5 Scoring, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 73rd in SG: ARG, 10th in Putting, 59th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained
Sami Valimaki: 7300: +9000 – Comes into this week with seven straight made cuts including three straight T20s, has gained at least 3.2 strokes on approach in his last five events, 18,12,4,36,69,48,34,MC,15,MC finishes this season, missed the cut his only time here last year, 4th in Approach, 126th in SG: OTT, 31st in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 36th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 139th in SG: ARG, 20th in Putting, 37th in Opportunities Gained, 61st in Birdie+ Gained, will also take his T5 (including ties)
Alejandro Tosti: 7300: +9000 – Last year he missed the cut in his first time here where he gained 6.6 strokes T2G but lost 6.2 strokes putting in his two rounds, 12,5,MC,MC,MC,68,10 finishes in his last seven events, 66th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 141st in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 70th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 100th in Par 5 Scoring, 20th in Proximity 200+ yards, 11th in SG: ARG, 142nd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 65th in Birdie+ Gained, will also take his T6 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (10%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I crushed this tournament in 2023, hitting the winner on Jason Day with a T2 on Si Woo Kim and a T5 on Tyrrell Hatton
Bets
Outrights
1u Scottie Scheffler (+420)
.3u Stephan Jaeger (+4400)
.2u Ryan Gerard (+6000)
.2u Alejandro Tosti (+9000)
.2u Sami Valimaki (+9000)
Top 5s (including ties)
.2u Sami Valimaki (+1200)
Top 6 (Each way)
.2u Alejandro Tosti (+1600)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 