Very interesting series in the second round for this Metro Division matchup between the top two teams in the division, the #1 seed in the East, Washington Capitals and the #2 seed Carolina Hurricanes. This series was penciled in for most people and both of these teams made easy work in the first round, advancing in five games against their far inferior opponents.

These teams split their regular season series, each winning their two home games. The Hurricanes won the first matchup 4-2 on November 3rd, scoring three unanswered in a game they outshot the Caps 45-21. The Caps answered with a 3-1 win on December 20th, getting out to a 3-0 lead through two periods and coasting through the third. Carolina got their revenge with a 5-1 blowout on April 2nd then Washington closed out the season series with the best game these teams played facing each other, winning 5-4 in a shootout on April 10th, a game that had the Caps score four straight to come back from an early 2-0 deficit with the Canes tying it up to force OT with two third period goals.

The Washington Capitals had a fantastic season on the back of Alex Ovechkin making history and breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record to become the NHL’s all time leading goal scorer, in incredible fashion. It was a joy to watch Ovi’s chase, the biggest story in the league this season. The Caps had a spectacular year along the way, going from being the last team in the playoffs last year to the first team in this year, winning the East with a 51-22-9 record. They won the Metro by twelve points over the Hurricanes. Washington coasted through the last month of the season, finishing the year with just four wins in their last twelve games, ending the season with a 5-2 loss in Pittsburgh on Thursday night.

The Capitals were awesome on both ends of the ice this season. They were the second-highest scoring team in the NHL this year, average 3.49 goals per game, on an average of 27.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the sixth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.3) and the fourth-most high-danger shots in the league. The Washington power play clicked at a 23.5% rate, ranking 13th in the NHL. Dylan Strome led the Caps in points (82) and assists (53) while at the age of 39, even missing part of the season with a broken leg that he came back from in record time, Alex Ovechkin led them in goals, with 44 on his way to passing Gretzky. Truly incredible.

Defensively Washington was very good too. They allowed an average of just 2.79 goals per game, the eighth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 15th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.01) and the 16th-fewest high-danger shots. The Caps were the fourth-best team on the penalty kill this year, killing off 82% of their penalties. Logan Thompson, acquired in the offseason from Vegas, was very good between the pipes with 31 wins, a 2.49 GAA, a .910 save percentage, and two shutouts.

In the first round the Caps knocked off the Habs pretty easily in five games. Game 1 surprisingly went to overtime with two late goals for Montreal to force OT before Alex Ovechkin ended it with shockingly his first overtime playoff game winner of his career. Logan Thompson was fantastic in goal in Game 2, making 25 saves in Washington’s 3-1 win. When the series shifted up to Montreal, the Capitals took their loss of the series, losing 6-3, giving up three unanswered goals in the third period. The Caps bounced back with a big third period in Game 4 on the road following a massive hit from Tom Wilson, scoring four unanswered in the third to win 5-2 on the road. They finished off the series with a 4-1 win at home in Game 5.

The Carolina Hurricanes have had a very good season, solidified in second place in the Metro pretty much the entire year. They finished the season with a 47-30-5 record, eight points ahead of Jersey for home ice and twelve behind the Eastern Conference leading Capitals. The Canes didn’t finish the season great, going into the playoffs with just one win in their last eight games, going into the playoffs on a three game losing streak, ending the year with a 7-5 loss in Ottawa on Thursday.

The Hurricanes were really solid this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they ranked ninth in scoring, averaging 3.24 goals per game on an average of 31.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.55) in the NHL and the fifth-most high-danger shots in the league. Carolina’s power play wasn’t great this year, scoring at just an 18.7% rate, the eighth-lowest in the NHL. They were led this season by Sebastian Aho (74 points, 45 assists) and Seth Jarvis (32 goals).

Defensively Carolina was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.81 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 24.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the tenth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.86) and the 13th-most high-danger shots. The Hurricanes had the best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 83.6%. Freddy Andersen is expected to start in goal. This season he had a 2.50 GAA and .899 save percentage with Pyotr Kochetkov backing him up with a 2.60 GAA and .898 save percentage.

I figured with how weak the Devils had been for the season half of the season that the Hurricanes would likely sweep them or win it in five, which is exactly what happened with Carolina dominating that first round series. The Canes dominated Game 1 with a 4-1 win at home in Game 1. Although the Devils played far better in Game 2, they still only scored a goal, with the Hurricanes going up 2-0 in the series with a 3-1 win at home. The Devils kept their solid play going in Game 3 at home, but the Canes came back from a 2-0 deficit to force overtime with two third periods, but it was Jersey that got the win on Simon Nemec’s game winner in double overtime to avoid the sweep. Carolina bounced right back with a dominant 5-2 win on the road in Game 4. The Canes then won the series with a 5-4 win in double overtime in Game 5 in a pretty crazy game, going down 3-0 in the first period and then coming back to tie it, with both teams trading goals after. The Hurricanes dominated overtime and 4:17 into double OT, Sebastian Aho finally beat Jacob Markstrom on the Cane’s 54th shot of the game.

I think this ends up being a solid, competitive series that goes six or seven games, but I think Washington’s the better team and I expect the Capitals to win it, especially if Freddy Andersen misses games due to injury. I’ll take the Caps to win the series at a nice +150 price for 2 units. I’ll also lay the expensive -192 on the series to go over 5.5 games for 1.5 units.

Expecting the Caps to win the series, I like them to win Game 1 at home tonight and I’ll take them for a unit at the nice +120 price.

I think the totals in this series are pretty much a toss up, with a slight lean on the unders. In the regular season, the over went 3-1 in the games they played. In the first round, both of their series went under in three of the five games. The Hurricanes trended under this year with the under going 43-36-8 in their games while the totals in Caps games went 40-40-7. I’ll stay off the total tonight and see how the series starts to play out.

Series Bets

2u Capitals to win series (+150)

1.5u Hurricanes/Capitals over 5.5 games (-192)

Game 1 Bets

1u Capitals ML (+120)

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