Great matchup out West between the last two Western Conference Champions in the Pacific Division, the #1 seed Vegas Golden Knights, who won the Cup two years ago and the #2 seed Edmonton Oilers, who lost in the Cup Finals last year. Both of these teams struggled at times in the third round, but both advanced in six games.

These teams split the regular season series between these teams, each winning two games, one at home and one on the road. The Golden Knights opened the season series with a 4-2 win on the road on November 6th with a three goal third period comeback, with Noah Hanifin scoring twice, including the game winner with just 49 seconds left in regulation. Vegas followed it up with a 1-0 shutout win at home in the second game on December 3rd in the Fortress. The Oilers answered with a big 6-3 win in a high scoring game at home on December 14th, getting out to a 5-0 lead and coasting. Edmonton tied the season series with a 3-2 win on the road in Vegas on April 1st in their last meeting.

The Vegas Golden Knights had a fantastic season, winning the Pacific Division with a 50-22-10 record, five points ahead of the Kings. They were very good at home in the Fortress with a 29-9-3 home record, but struggled on the road where they were just 21-13-7. Vegas was hot going into the playoffs, on a seven game point streak with an 11-2-2 record in their last 15 games, coming off a 4-1 win to cap off the season in Vancouver on Wednesday.

Vegas was fantastic on both ends of the ice this year. They scored the fifth-most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.34 per game on an average of 30.2 shots per game. They’ve generated the fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.32) and the third-most high-danger shots in the league. The Knights had the second-best power play in the league this season, scoring on 28.3% of their chances. Jack Eichel (94 points, 66 assists) and Pavel Dorofeyev (35 goals) led them in scoring this season.

The Knights were even better defensively, allowing an average of just 2.61 goals per game, the third-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 26.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.8) and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots. Vegas struggled on the penalty kill at just 75.7%, the seventh-worst in the league. Adin Hill was pretty good between the pipes this season, with 32 wins, a 2.47 GAA, a .907 save percentage, and four shutouts.

I severely underestimated the Minnesota Wild in the first round as they gave Vegas a hell of a fight through that series. The Golden Knights won the first game between them 4-2 as definitely the better team at home, but in Games 2 at home and 3 on the road, the Knights crumbled, losing both of those games 5-2 and worrying me quite a bit. Vegas answered back with a 4-3 overtime win on the road in Game 4 to tie up the series on Ivan Barbashev’s huge game winner. Game 5 went to overtime as well, as the Knights won it 3-2 at home on Brett Howden’s game winner, and then capped off the series with a 3-2 win on the road in another tight game in Game 6.

The Edmonton Oilers, after making a run to an incredible Stanley Cup Finals last year, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to lose in seven games, they struggled with a bunch of key injuries this season, with Connor McDavid and MVP-candidate (and my pick to win the Hart Trophy this year) Leon Draisaitl, both missing time through the season. Despite that, they still made the playoffs in the third seed in the Pacific with a 48-29-5 record, five points ahead of the Flames, and four behind LA. After getting healthy they closes the season pretty well, with four wins in the third five games, winning with a 3-0 shutout in San Jose on Wednesday in their last game of the regular season.

Edmonton was eleventh in scoring this season, averaging 3.16 goals per game on a league-leading average of 32 shots per game. They’ve generated the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.34) and the tenth-most high-danger shots in the league. Although they took a step back from last year when they had the most lethal power play in NHL history, the power play was still good for the Oilers this year, scoring on 23.7% of their chances, the eleventh-best in the league. Despite injuries, Leon Draisaitl led the NHL with 52 goals this season, and was third in the league with 106 points. Connor McDavid led Edmonton in assists with 74 this year.

The Oilers were in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing an average of 2.87 goals per game, 14th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.76), only behind the Kings and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. Edmonton killed off 78.2% of their penalties, ranking 16th in the NHL. The goaltending for the Oilers struggled a bit again this year. Stuart Skinner had 26 wins, a 2.81 GAA, a .896 save percentage, and three shutouts with Cal Pickard backing him up with 22 wins, a 2.71 GAA, and a .900 save percentage. Not great for either of those guys.

Besides in Game 5 on the road, I thought the Oilers were severely outplayed in the first round and likely should have been swept by LA, but the Kings essentially beat themselves, and Edmonton came back from a 2-0 series deficit to win it in six with four straight wins coming into the second round. Game 1 was insane, with the Kings blowing a 4-0 lead, crumbling it away before giving the Oilers a 6-5 loss with 42 seconds left in the game after Connor McDavid tied up the game with 1:28 left. LA was the team with the big third period in Game 2 at home, dominating with a 6-2 win. The Kings crumbled late again in Game 3 on the road, with the Oilers scoring four straight with less than seven minutes left to win 7-4. Evan Bouchard put together the comeback for the Oilers in Game 4 at home, scoring the game tying goal with 29 seconds left in regulation with Leon Draisaitl winning it in overtime on the power play. Edmonton finally dominated Game 5, outshooting the Kings 46-22 to win it 3-1. The Kings played well again in Game 6, getting the 6-4 win to close out the series.

I don’t think the Oilers should’ve gotten out of the first round, and I love Vegas to win this series. They’re the better team in every position and depth wise…besides the x-factor of the two superstars, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for the Oilers. Those two guys could take over games, but I just think the Knights are too good for them to beat in a seven game series. And they play far different hockey than the Kings do and the goaltending is just too awful for Edmonton to hang in this series.

I have the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup that I placed at +1800 in the first week of the season. Not only am I riding that out, but I’ll double down on them to win the series for 2 units. I think they get it done in six, maybe even five games. 

Expecting the Knights to win the series, I like them to win Game 1 tonight at home and I’ll take them for a unit.

I’d lean the overs in this series, despite both teams trending under, with the under going 45-40-3 in games for both of these teams through the season. Both teams trended over in the first round, with the over hitting in four of the six games for Vegas against the Wild and the over hitting in five of six for the Oilers against the Kings. I’ll jump back on the overs tonight with half a unit on it tonight. 

Futures

2u Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)

Series Bets

2u Golden Knights to win series (-105)

Game 1 Bets

1u Golden Knights ML (-135)

.5u Golden Knights/Oilers over 6.5 (-140)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!

… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…