Lousy night for me yesterday on the NHL with two new series starting, as I got reverse swept to lose 3.06 units. Tonight we have Game 2 of Leafs/Panthers and the Jets/Stars series beginning. Let’s get some wins!
Game 2: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (7:00)
Although it didn’t really go the way I expected it to, Game 1 of this series was pretty fun, with the Panthers comeback falling short. The Leafs capitalized on some bad defense early for Florida, who gave up some bad odd man breaks. William Nylander scored just 33 seconds into the game and it was 3-1 after a period, and 4-1 after two. In the third, the Panthers started their comeback, making it 4-3 before giving up a breakaway to Matthew Knies with six minutes left in the game, and losing 5-4. I like Florida to bounce back here on the road and I’ll take them for a unit. I like the over too, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Game 1: Jets vs. Stars (9:30)
Interesting series in the Central Division between two of the top teams in the West for the second round, the President’s Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets and the #2 seed in the Central, Dallas Stars. Both of these teams went to Game 7 in the first round and came back from multiple goal deficits in the third period to advance on back to back nights in insane fashion. I broke it down in depth today. I said going into both first round series, that I thought whoever won the Stars/Avs series would win the second round series regardless of who won between the Jets and Blues. I still like that, fully expecting Dallas to win this series. I think if the Western Conference Finals is against Vegas, they’ll lose there, but I do think if the Oilers advance, the Stars beat them to go to the Cup Finals. Dallas is just such a deep team and I think besides goaltending, which they do have a stud in goal too in Oettinger, the Stars are better in every position. I think they probably get it done in six games. I’ll take the Stars to win this series for 1.5 units. I considered taking the series to go over 5.5 games, but don’t like it enough to bet on, and I’ll just play it game by game from that perspective. I like the Stars to win Game 1 on the road here since I like them to win the series, and I’ll take them for half a unit tonight. I’d lean the games in this series trend under with very good goaltending for both teams and solid defense, thinking the Hellebuyck has to have a better performance, or this series will be over very quickly. Both teams have trended under this season, with the under going 47-39-3 in Jets games and 44-38-7 in Stars games. All four regular season games between these teams hit the under. The first round series for both of these teams did trend over though, with the over hitting in six of the seven games in Jets/Blues and in five of the seven in Stars/Avs. I’ll lay off the total in Game 1 and evaluate it as the series continues.
Game Bets
1u Panthers ML (-148)
.5u Panthers/Maple Leafs over 5.5 (-135)
.5u Stars ML (-112)
Series Bets
1.5u Panthers to win the series (-170)
2u Capitals to win series (+150)
1.5u Hurricanes/Capitals over 5.5 games (-192)
2u Golden Knights to win series (-105)
1.5u Stars to win series (-170)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Records
Regular Season: 567-497-14 (-58.18 units)
Round 1: 40-39 (-1.19 units)
Round 2: 0-4 (-3.68 units)
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A Town's Zone 