Interesting series in the Central Division between two of the top teams in the West for the second round, the President’s Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets and the #2 seed in the Central, Dallas Stars. Both of these teams went to Game 7 in the first round and came back from multiple goal deficits in the third period to advance on back to back nights in insane fashion.

The Jets went 3-1 this year against the Stars, all in low scoring games. The Jets dominated the first game, winning 4-1 at home on November 9th, not allowing a goal till there was just 1:22 left in the game. The Stars answered back with a pretty close 3-1 win at home on December 1st. Winnipeg had another dominant performance at home in their third game on March 14th, not allowing a goal till there were less than four minutes left in the game, winning 4-1. The Jets closed the season series with a 4-0 shutout on the road for Connor Hellebuyck in their fourth and final meeting on April 10th, to pretty much lock up the division.

The Winnipeg Jets were fantastic this season, winning the President’s Trophy this year for the first time in franchise history with a 56-22-4 record, leading the way in the West the entire season. They won the Central Division by ten points over the Stars, starting the year on an eight game win streak with just one loss in their first 16 games, and ending the season on a 14-6 run, capped off with a 2-1 win in overtime at home against the Ducks on Wednesday. Winnipeg has a few key injuries they’re dealing with going into the playoffs, with Nikolaj Ehlers, their third highest scorer, out at least for this series and Gabe Vilardi, who’s out day to day.

The Jets had the fourth-highest scoring offense in the league this year, averaging 3.35 goals per game, on an average of 28.2 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.11) and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league. Winnipeg’s power play was the best in the NHL this season, scoring at a 28.9% rate. They were led by Kyle Connor, who had 97 points, 41 goals, and 56 assists this season.

Defensively, Winnipeg was the best team in the NHL this season, allowing an average of just 2.32 goals per game, on an average of 27.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.78) and the third-fewest high-danger shots. The Jets’ penalty kill was at 79.4%, ranking 13th in the league. Winnipeg was led by their star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, the obvious back to back Vezina winner and the current favorite to win MVP (which I’d expect goes to Draisaitl instead of him). Hellebuyck was once again the best goalie in the league this year, with an NHL-leading 2.01 GAA, 47 wins, and a .925 save percentage (only slightly lower than Anthony Stolarz’s .926).

The first round wasn’t great for the Jets. Game 1 was tight till late, with Kyle Connor scoring the game winner with just 1:36 left in regulation to come back to win 5-3 at home in a game that Hellebuyck looked pretty shaky in. The Jets followed it up with yet another win in Game 2 at home in another close game, winning 2-1 at home. When the series shifted to St. Louis, that’s when Hellebuyck and the Jets really started to crumble. They lost Game 3 in a blowout, losing 7-2 on the road, then lost 5-1 in Game 4 to take a tied series back to Winnipeg for Game 5. The Jets played much better in Game 5 at home, winning 5-3 and limiting the Blues to just 19 shots, but Hellebuyck did give up three goals in that game. Game 6 was a disaster again for the Jets, with Winnipeg losing 5-2 on the road with the Blues forcing Game 7, scoring four goals in the span of five and a half minutes and chasing Hellebuyck out of the goal again. Game 7 didn’t look good for the Jets either. They gave up two early goals with the Blues opening the scoring just 1:10 into the game and were down 3-1 with 1:56 left in regulation. They pulled off a hell of a comeback, with Vlad Namestnikov scoring with 1:56 left, then Cole Perfetti forcing overtime with just three seconds left in regulation. Adam Lowry was the hero in overtime, winning it 4-3 late in double overtime to advance. Winnipeg was pretty bad in that series, especially on the road, with Hellebuyck, the back to back Vezina winner and the MVP favorite, getting pulled in all three road games of the series.

The Dallas Stars were very good this year, finishing in second place in the Central Division with a 50-26-6 record, ten points behind the President’s Trophy winning Jets and four points ahead of the Avs for home ice in the first round. They made the big move at the deadline of acquiring Rantanen, and they recently got Tyler Seguin back in the lineup, who was out a majority of the year with an injury. The Stars are missing their best player offensively though, with Jason Robertson out week to week with a lower-body injury. Dallas ended their season horribly, coasting for the last few week, heading into the playoffs on a seven game losing streak after a 5-1 loss in Nashville on Wednesday, and getting outshot in their last 13 games.

The Stars were very good on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they were the third-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 3.35 goals per game on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.25) and the 16th-most high-danger shots in the league. The Dallas power play was around league average, ranking 17th at 22%. Matt Duchene (82 points, 52 assists) and Jason Robertson (35 goals) led the Stars this year.

Dallas allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the NHL this season, an average of 2.71 per game on an average of 29 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 16th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.06) and the 17th-most high-danger shots, ranking right in the middle of the league. The Stars had the fourth-best penalty kill in the NHL at 82%. Jake Oettinger was once again one of the best goalies in the league, with 36 wins, a 2.59 GAA, .909 save percentage, and two shutouts.

The first round series between the Stars and the Colorado Avalanche was spectacular, the best series of the first round. The Avs started the series hot, winning Game 1 5-1 in a game that was much closer than the score to take home ice in the series. The Stars answered with a 4-3 overtime win at home in Game 2, then took home ice back with a 2-1 overtime win on the road in Game 4. Colorado answered big, dominating Game 4 at home to tie the series with a 4-0 shutout at home in a game that saw MacKenzie Blackwood get his first career playoff shutout and Gabe Landeskog score his first goal in almost three years. Dallas answered with a dominating 6-2 shutout at home in Game 6. In Game 6 the Stars led 4-3 going into the third period with a four goal second period, but the Avs came alive in the third period, scoring four unanswered to win it 7-4 and force Game 7. The Avalanche looked in control in Game 7, with a 2-0 lead early in the third period before Mikko Rantanen put together an incredible performance against his former team, with a hat trick in the third period, along with the go-ahead goal from Wyatt Johnston for the Stars to win the series with a 4-2 win at home.

I said going into both first round series, that I thought whoever won the Stars/Avs series would win the second round series regardless of who won between the Jets and Blues. I still like that, fully expecting Dallas to win this series. I think if the Western Conference Finals is against Vegas, they’ll lose there, but I do think if the Oilers advance, the Stars beat them to go to the Cup Finals. Dallas is just such a deep team and I think besides goaltending, which they do have a stud in goal too in Oettinger, the Stars are better in every position. I think they probably get it done in six games. I’ll take the Stars to win this series for 1.5 units. I considered taking the series to go over 5.5 games, but don’t like it enough to bet on, and I’ll just play it game by game from that perspective.

I like the Stars to win Game 1 on the road here since I like them to win the series, and I’ll take them for half a unit tonight.

I’d lean the games in this series trend under with very good goaltending for both teams and solid defense, thinking the Hellebuyck has to have a better performance, or this series will be over very quickly. Both teams have trended under this season, with the under going 47-39-3 in Jets games and 44-38-7 in Stars games. All four regular season games between these teams hit the under. The first round series for both of these teams did trend over though, with the over hitting in six of the seven games in Jets/Blues and in five of the seven in Stars/Avs.

I’ll lay off the total in Game 1 and evaluate it as the series continues.

Series Bets

1.5u Stars to win series (-170)

Game 1 Bets

.5u Stars ML (-112)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!

… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…