As I come off two outright winners in a row, this week the PGA Tour heads to a new course, the Philadelphia Cricket Club for the Truist Championship, an elevated event that takes the place of Quail Hollow with it hosting the PGA Championship next month.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7119 yards, difficult US Open style course, nine of the Par 4s are under 450 yards, both Par 5s are reachable by most of the field, most bunkers (118) on any course on tour this season, pretty wide fairways with huge and deep bunkers in the landing areas between 270-300 yards from the tee, pretty gnarly 3 inch rough, trees and high fescue if you miss the fairway badly, water in play on six holes, fast bentgrass greens with lots of undulation
Tournament Notes
- First time this course is hosting a PGA Tour event
- Because of Quail Hollow hosting the PGA Championship in a few weeks, this will be a one off event for this year with it moved to this course. They’ll be back to Quail Hollow next year
- This tournament used to be called the Wells Fargo Championship
- This course formerly hosted the 2016 Senior PLAYERS on the Champions Tour, where Bernhart Langer won
- No cut event
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Putting
Field
72 Golfers – Signature event with a loaded field with everyone besides Scottie
Defending Champion (Quail Hollow): Rory McIlroy (-17)
Runner Up Last Year (Quail Hollow): Xander Schauffele (-12)
One and Done: Xander Schauffele
One and Done Considerations: McIlroy, Thomas, Schauffele, Cantlay
Players
Xander Schauffele: 10200: +1800 – His driving has struggled since he came back from injury but he’s been fantastic on approach and I think that leads to a solid finish or possible win this week, 18,8,12,72,40,30,41,4,5,2,1,15,13,7,8,1,2 finishes in his last 16 events, 5th in Approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 9th in Driving Distance, 22nd in Sand Saves, 29th in Proximity 100–125 yards, 33rd in Proximity 125–150 yards, 59th in Par 4 Scoring, 39th in SG: ARG, 56th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 32nd in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance
Justin Thomas: 10000: +1800 – Coming off getting me my first outright win of the season a couple weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and has played great this season, 1,36,2,33,36,9,6,48,2,26,2,14 finishes in his last twelve events, 4th in Approach, 62nd in SG: OTT, 18th in Driving Distance, 8th in Sand Saves, 3rd in Proximity 100–125 yards, 1st in Proximity 125–150 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogey Avoidance
Russell Henley: 9400: +3733 – Has a win already this year at the Arnold Palmer and a ton of T10 finishes with 8,MC,30,1,6,39,5,10,30,4,22,30,5,48,7 finishes in his last 15 events, 9th in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 69th in Driving Distance, 26th in Sand Saves, 12th in Proximity 100–125 yards, 11th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in SG: ARG, 5th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 12th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 8700: +4500 – Pops as second in my model this week behind JT and I think he sets up nicely for this course, has a win already this season at the AmEx, 13,MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15 finishes in his twelve events this season, 1st in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 57th in Driving Distance, 42nd in Sand Saves, 2nd in Proximity 100–125 yards, 7th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 35th in Par 4 Scoring, 62nd in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogey Avoidance
Keegan Bradley: 8100: +4500 – The Ryder Cup captain’s playing well this year and has some decent results this year with 18,MC,47,20,5,34,65,15,6,15,21,1 finishes in his last twelve events, 18th in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Distance, 47th in Sand Saves, 26th in Proximity 100–125 yards, 4th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in SG: ARG, 70th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 40th in Birdie+ Gained, 16th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Proximity 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.6u Xander Schauffele (+1800)
.6u Justin Thomas (+1800)
.3u Russell Henley (+3733)
.3u Sepp Straka (+4500)
.3u Keegan Bradley (+4500)
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