Double winner for me on last night’s only game, winning 2.5 units. Tonight we have two key Game 5s in the NHL Playoffs, with my Golden Knights facing elimination, let’s win again!
Game 5: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (7:00)
After losing Games 1 and 2 in this series, the Panthers took over at home, winning Games 3 and 4 to tie up the series going back up to Toronto tonight. Game 1 of this series was pretty fun, with the Panthers comeback falling short. The Leafs capitalized on some bad defense early for Florida, who gave up some bad odd man breaks. William Nylander scored just 33 seconds into the game and it was 3-1 after a period, and 4-1 after two. In the third, the Panthers started their comeback, making it 4-3 before giving up a breakaway to Matthew Knies with six minutes left in the game, and losing 5-4. In Game 2, Florida was the better team in a back and forth game, but the Leafs still got the win at home, winning 4-3 in a game they were outshot 28-20. When the series shifted to Lauderdale for Game 3, the Panthers got the 5-4 win in overtime on Brad Marchand’s game winner, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit in the first six minutes of the game. Florida dominated Game 4, with Sergei Bobrovsky making 23 saves in a 2-0 shutout win, outshooting the Leafs 37-23. I’m even more confident now that the Panthers win this series, likely in six and expect them to get a win on the road tonight. I’ll take Florida for a unit. I also like the over, which hit in the first three games of the series, and I’ll go right back to it again tonight.
Game 5: Golden Knights vs. Oilers (9:30)
I have a series bet on Vegas and them to win the Cup from the first week of the season, and to say I’m worried about those is an understatement as they now face elimination at home tonight. The Oilers came back from an 0-2 deficit in the first period of Game 1 and were the better team on their way to their 4-2 win. In Game 2, Vegas was the much better team in a back and forth fun game. Adin Hill was pretty bad early in Game 2, while Cal Pickard played his best game I’ve ever seen. Hill was great late, and the Knights killed off a five minute penalty which was huge in overtime and after that I thought they’d win for sure, but it was Connor McDavid setting up Leon Draisaitl for the game winner in OT after a non-call that should’ve put Vegas on the power play, but instead the series went to Edmonton with the Oilers holding a 2-0 series lead. In Game 3, Vegas took control and were the better team in an incredible game to make it 2-1 in the series with a 4-3 win. The first period saw four goals with Corey Perry scoring twice to start the game with Vegas answering back with three straight goals to take the lead. Connor McDavid tied the game up with 3:02 left in regulation, and with 0.3 seconds on a horrible play by Stuart Skinner coming out of the net, original misfit Reilly Smith threw the puck at the net, and it deflected in by Leon Draisaitl for the game winner. The Oilers bounced right back in Game 4 though, scoring just 1:27 into the game with Stuart Skinner making 23 saves in an Oilers 3-0 shutout win. My Knights now face elimination at home. I think they end up winning here to extend the series back to Edmonton, but I’m not confident in them coming back to win it in seven whatsoever. I’ll hedge a bit of my 4 unit risk here with 2 units on the Oilers, that hopefully I lose. If I didn’t have the future, I’d probably just let the series bet ride tonight, and if I didn’t have either the future or the series bet, I’ll likely jump on Vegas here instead. Go Knights. I’ll also take the over for a unit, which I like quite a bit, especially if Vegas is down in the third period.
Game Bets
1u Panthers ML (-142)
1u Panthers/Maple Leafs over 5.5 (-122)
2u Oilers ML (+100) only as a hedge
1u Golden Knights/Oilers over 6.5 (-122)
Series Bets
1.5u Panthers to win the series (-170)
2u Capitals to win series (+150)
1.5u Hurricanes/Capitals over 5.5 games (-192)
2u Golden Knights to win series (-105)
1.5u Stars to win series (-170)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup (+1800)
Records
Regular Season: 567-497-14 (-58.18 units)
Round 1: 40-39 (-1.19 units)
Round 2: 15-11 (+1.72 units)
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A Town's Zone 