This week we have the second major of the year, a loaded field at a familiar place for the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Let’s hit a winner for the fourth week in a row!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7626 yards, one of the hardest courses on tour every year, nine of the eleven Par 4s are over 450 yards, the other two Par 4s are short and drivable (played almost as easy as the Par 5s), three of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards, Par 5s are reachable in two by most of the field and you need to score on them, poa overseeded Bermuda grass, narrow to average width tree lined fairways, 61 bunkers and water in play on seven holes, very low fairways hit (~53% vs. 62% tour average), very high average driving distance here (~301 yards vs. tour average 284), rough typically isn’t too penal during the Wells Fargo and missing fairways isn’t going to kill you but they’ll have that grown up higher with it being a major and overseeded to make it more gnarly, lot of right to left doglegs (which favors natural draw), slightly lower than tour average GIR % (~61% vs. 66%), average proximity from the rough here is the lowest on tour, average sized fast multitiered greens with some undulation, putting is very difficult here with consistently lowest make % of putts inside 10 feet
Tournament Notes
- This course hosts the former Wells Fargo Championship every year since 2003 (besides 2017, 2020, and 2025)
- This course previously hosted the 2017 PGA Championship when Justin Thomas won and the 2022 Presidents Cup
- Cut line is Top 70 and ties rather than the typical Top 65 of most other events
- A lot of PGA of America (not PGA Tour) Professionals and Champions Tour golfers are in the field that you can immediately just cross off, so its actually a much smaller field of guys actually in contention than it looks
- Every PGA Championship winner since 2006 has made the cut the week before winning
- Nine of the last twelve winners of the PGA Championship finished T15 or better in their previous event (Justin Thomas was 28th, Morikawa finished 20th) before winning
- Ten of the last eleven winners of the PGA Championship gained strokes OTT and on Approach in their previous event before winning (Phil Mickelson was the only outlier)
- Besides Phil in 2021, who finished 69th in his even the week before (but was first round leader and 10th after 36 holes), every other winner since 2006 finished T28 or better the week prior
- The course underwent a major renovation in 2016, so it isn’t worth looking at the course history from before 2017
- This course has the smallest gap between SG: OTT and Approach for the T10/T5/Winners, while it has one of the lowest SG: ARG numbers, around the green play here does not matter
- The Green Mile (holes 16-18) is the hardest closing stretch on tour, collectively play over a stroke over Par
- Driving accuracy isn’t much a factor here since everyone misses the fairway, but distance does
- Since 2012, 7 of the 11 winners at the Wells Fargo Championship here had a T10 in one of the two previous years here (Clark, Homa, Ernst and Hahn were the ones that did not)
- 10 of the T13 at the PGA Championship here in 2017 gained at least 2.2 strokes OTT
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175+ yards (54.7%) with 32.1% from over 200 yards
Corollary Courses
- Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – Ton of crossover success here since they’re similar setups – long, tough courses
- Torrey Pines Golf Course (Farmers Insurance Open)
Field
156 golfers – major field with all the best players from the PGA Tour and LIV Golf
Defending Champion (Valhalla Golf Club): Xander Schauffele (-21)
Runner Up Last Year (Valhalla Golf Club): Bryson DeChambeau (-20)
Defending Champion (Wells Fargo Championship): Rory McIlroy (-17)
Runner Up Last Year (Wells Fargo Championship): Xander Schauffele (-12)
One and Done: Bryson DeChambeau
One and Done Considerations: Bryson, Rory
Players
Bryson DeChambeau: 11500: +950 – One of the top three golfers in the field and he’s been fantastic in majors with 5,MC,1,2,6,60,20,4 finishes in majors the last two years, he’s coming off being in the final group of four straight events and is coming off a win at LIV Korea, 2,4,38,4,MC,MC,33 finishes at PGA Championship (with the 33rd her in 2017), 1,T2,5,T10,T20,T18,T6 finishes on LIV this season, 9,4,MC,MC finishes here for the Wells Fargo, 106th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 133rd in Proximity 175–200 yards, 26th in Proximity 200+ yards, 105th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225), 1st in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 15th in SG: Par 5, 10th in Putting, 54th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, I wish I locked him in a week ago when he was +1700 but I still think the +950 is way better than half of that for Rory or Scottie
Justin Thomas: 9900: +2200 – Won the PGA Championship here the last time this course hosted it in 2017 and has fantastic form right now, multiple time PGA Championship winner, 2,1,36,2,33,36,9,5,48,2,26,2,14 finishes in his last 13 events, 21,14,26,21,MC,7 finishes here for the Wells Fargo, 8,65,1,MC,37,6,1,66,18 finishes at PGA Championships, 4th in Approach, 99th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Driving Distance, 44th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 32nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 145th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 38th in SG: Par 5, 21st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 27th in Bogey Avoidance
Brooks Koepka: 9700: +6000 – Best major champion of this era and three-time PGA Championship winner, even though he has pretty lousy form and hasn’t played great even in majors for the past year he is an auto-bet for me at every major, 26,1,5,2,9,1,1,13,4,5,15,70 finishes at PGA Championships, T17,T30,T18,2,T35,T7,T33 finishes on LIV this season, 13th here in 2017 for the PGA Championship and only played here in 2018 for the Wells Fargo where he finished 42nd, 16th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 25th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Proximity 175–200 yards, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 57th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225), 6th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 39th in SG: Par 5, 33rd in Putting, 53rd in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 8000: +7700 – Has won twice this season and is coming off cashing me a winner last week at the Truist Championship, 1,13,MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15 finishes in his 13 events this season, 8,MC,MC,54,MC finishes here at the Wells Fargo, MC,7,78,66 finishes at PGA Championships, 2nd in Approach, 67th in SG: OTT, 116th in Driving Distance, 9th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 33rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 66th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225), 17th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 2nd in SG: Par 5, 41st in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Bogey Avoidance, also going to take his T5
Sami Valimaki: 5500: +50000 – Huge long shot at 500:1 that pops in my model and I can see him having success here with pretty good form coming in, first time playing here since he’s never played the Wells Fargo, missed the cut in his two PGA Championships last year and in 2021, 39,18,12,4,36,69,48,34,MC,15,MC finishes this season, 8th in Approach, 134th in SG: OTT, 93rd in Driving Distance, 50th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring (200–225), 40th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 28th in SG: Par 5, 7th in Putting, 64th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T5 and T10 at the price
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ve hit multiple winners on this event in the past (including Brooks all three times he won it
- As usual with majors, LIV golfers stats are skewed since they only include majors and events before they went to LIV since LIV doesn’t have strokes gained data, so proceed with caution on those stats
Bets
Outrights
2u Bryson DeChambeau (+950)
.5u Justin Thomas (+2200)
.2u Brooks Koepka (+6000)
.2u Sepp Straka (+7700)
.1u Sami Valimaki (+50000)
T5s (including ties)
.2u Sepp Straka (+1062)
.1u Sami Valimaki (+4500)
T10s (including ties)
.1u Sami Valimaki (+1800)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 