Including series bets, last night I went 1-3 on the NHL Playoffs, but lost just 0.38 units. Tonight we have Game 6 in Florida as the Panthers look to close out the Leafs and advance to face the Canes in the Eastern Conference Finals. Let’s win!
Game 6: Panthers vs. Maple Leafs (8:00)
I have loved watching the Leafs fall apart in this series and they’re now on the brink of elimination on the road tonight as the Panthers now have a 3-2 series lead. Game 1 of this series was pretty fun, with the Panthers comeback falling short. The Leafs capitalized on some bad defense early for Florida, who gave up some bad odd man breaks. William Nylander scored just 33 seconds into the game and it was 3-1 after a period, and 4-1 after two. In the third, the Panthers started their comeback, making it 4-3 before giving up a breakaway to Matthew Knies with six minutes left in the game, and losing 5-4. In Game 2, Florida was the better team in a back and forth game, but the Leafs still got the win at home, winning 4-3 in a game they were outshot 28-20. When the series shifted to Lauderdale for Game 3, the Panthers got the 5-4 win in overtime on Brad Marchand’s game winner, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit in the first six minutes of the game. Florida dominated Game 4, with Sergei Bobrovsky making 23 saves in a 2-0 shutout win, outshooting the Leafs 37-23. The Panthers dominated Game 5 on the road, crushing the Leafs 6-1, with Bobrovsky’s shutout (which would’ve been his second in a row) ending with just 1:06 left on a meaningless goal. It felt like in that game, the Panthers drained the will out of the Leafs at home. With the series back in Lauderdale for Game 6, I think this is over tonight. I fully expect the Panthers to close it out at home and head back to the Eastern Conference Finals for the third straight season. This year did feel different for the Leafs, but they’re back to being the same old Leafs again. I think this run of the core four (or five if you include Matthew Knies) is finally done after tonight. I’ll win 1.5 units on my series bet on Florida to win it, which the price on looks great now at -170, with two chances to cash it and the money line on the Panthers at -230 tonight. I’ll double down here with a unit on the Panthers in regulation. I also like the over quite a bit here, which has hit in four of the five games this series. With this being an elimination game on the road for the Leafs and me expecting them to be down in the third period, I like the over even better. I’ll take it for 2 units.
Game Bets
1u Panthers in regulation (-150)
2u Panthers/Maple Leafs over 5.5 (-115)
Series Bets
1.5u Panthers to win the series (-170)
1.5u Stars to win series (-170)
Records
Regular Season: 567-497-14 (-58.18 units)
Round 1: 40-39 (-1.19 units)
Round 2: 19-17 (+0.02 units)
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A Town's Zone 