We have a solid matchup this year for the Eastern Conference finals as the 3 seed in the Atlantic, the defending Stanley Cup Champion, Florida Panthers take on the 2 seed in the East, Carolina Hurricanes. This will be a rematch of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals where the Panthers swept the Canes in a series that had all close games, with Carolina head coach Rod Brind’Amour saying in his press conference after that they “didn’t get swept”…when they did. The Canes have also gone 0-12 in their last three Eastern Conference Finals appearances, which is a trend they’re expecting to end this year. These teams play quite different styles of hockey, which should setup a good series.

In the regular season this year, the Panthers went 2-1 against the Hurricanes. They won the first game 6-3 on the road on November 29th with a three goal third period. Florida followed it up with a dominant 6-0 shutout win at home the next night for the second half of a back-to-back home and home, outshooting Carolina 35-20. In the last game between them, the Hurricanes answered back on the road with a 3-1 win, that was pretty close despite the Canes outshooting Florida 40-26.

The Carolina Hurricanes have had a very good season, solidified in second place in the Metro pretty much the entire year. They finished the season with a 47-30-5 record, eight points ahead of Jersey for home ice and twelve behind the Eastern Conference leading Capitals. The Canes didn’t finish the season great, going into the playoffs with just one win in their last eight games, going into the playoffs on a three game losing streak, ending the year with a 7-5 loss in Ottawa.

The Hurricanes were really solid this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they ranked ninth in scoring, averaging 3.24 goals per game on an average of 31.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.55) in the NHL and the fifth-most high-danger shots in the league. Carolina’s power play wasn’t great this year, scoring at just an 18.7% rate, the eighth-lowest in the NHL. They were led this season by Sebastian Aho (74 points, 45 assists) and Seth Jarvis (32 goals).

Defensively Carolina was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.81 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 24.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the tenth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.86) and the 13th-most high-danger shots. The Hurricanes had the best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 83.6%. Freddy Andersen is expected to start in goal. This season he had a 2.50 GAA and .899 save percentage with Pyotr Kochetkov backing him up with a 2.60 GAA and .898 save percentage.

I figured with how weak the Devils had been for the season half of the season that the Hurricanes would likely sweep them or win it in five, which is exactly what happened with Carolina dominating that first round series. The Canes dominated Game 1 with a 4-1 win at home in Game 1. Although the Devils played far better in Game 2, they still only scored a goal, with the Hurricanes going up 2-0 in the series with a 3-1 win at home. The Devils kept their solid play going in Game 3 at home, but the Canes came back from a 2-0 deficit to force overtime with two third periods, but it was Jersey that got the win on Simon Nemec’s game winner in double overtime to avoid the sweep. Carolina bounced right back with a dominant 5-2 win on the road in Game 4. The Canes then won the series with a 5-4 win in double overtime in Game 5 in a pretty crazy game, going down 3-0 in the first period and then coming back to tie it, with both teams trading goals after. The Hurricanes dominated overtime and 4:17 into double OT, Sebastian Aho finally beat Jacob Markstrom on the Cane’s 54th shot of the game to end the series.

The second round was an incredibly boring series for Carolina, who knocked off the top seed in the East, Washington Capitals in just five games, in slow, very low-event games. After the Hurricanes dominated Game 1 and got a 2-1 overtime win on the road, the Capitals bounced back nicely with a 3-1 win at home to even the series. But Carolina answered back even better in Game 3, with a 4-0 shutout win at home for Freddy Andersen. Game 4 wasn’t great for the Caps either, with the Hurricanes putting them at the brink of elimination with a 5-2 win at home. The Canes outshot the Capitals 38-21 in that game, and even when they were down, Washington only generated six shots on goal in the third period. Carolina ended the series late in a close Game 5, with Andrei Svechnikov scoring the go-ahead goal with just 1:59 left in regulation and Seth Jarvis capping it off with an empty netter for a 3-1 Canes win to close out their second round.

The Panthers had a lot of up and downs this year after winning the Cup last season and going to the Cup Finals the past two years. They finished the season four points back from the Lightning and a point ahead of Ottawa with a 47-31-4 record. Florida dealt with injuries to several key players, including Matthew Tkachuk, but everyone was all ready to go when the playoffs started. They got their stud defenseman Aaron Ekblad back to start the playoffs as well, who missed time due to a suspension for PEDs. At the trade deadline, the Cup Champs made the most surprising move, bringing in Brad Marchand from the Bruins. Full rat line coming in the playoffs of him, Tkachuk, and Bennett the Menace.

Florida’s offense wasn’t all that special this year, averaging 3 goals per game, 15th-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.6 shots per game, the third-most in the league. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.45) and the most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers scored on 23.5% of their power play chances, ranking 13th in the NHL. Sam Reinhart (81 points, 39 goals) and Aleksander Barkov (51 assists) led Florida in scoring this year.

The Panthers were really solid on the back end with their hard-hitting defense. They allowed an average of 2.72 goals per game, the seventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 26.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.84) and the eleventh-fewest high-danger shots. Florida killed off 80.7% of their penalties, ranking tenth in the league. Sergei Bobrovsky was pretty good in goal this year, with 33 wins, five shutouts, a 2.44 GAA, and a .906 save percentage.

The Battle of Florida in the first round was largely disappointing. I thought the Lightning would give their rivals a series, but the Panthers dominated it, besides Game 3 on the road, winning the series in five games. Game 1 on the road was a blowout win for the Panthers, winning 6-2 in Tampa. They followed it up with a 2-0 Bobrovsky shutout to go back to Sunrise with a 2-0 series lead. In a must-win Game 3, the Lightning got their first and only win of the series, scoring three times in the third period for a 5-1 win in a game that was just 2-1 going into the third. The Panthers had a great third period of their own in Game 4 at home, erasing a 2-1 deficit with 3:47 left in regulation with two goals in eleven seconds followed by an empty netter to win it 4-2. The Cup Champs scored three unanswered to win the series in Game 5 with a 6-3 victory on the road.

The second round for Florida was pretty solid as they took seven games to defeat the #1 seed in the Atlantic, Toronto Maple Leafs. Game 1 of the series was pretty fun, with the Panthers comeback falling short. The Leafs capitalized on some bad defense early for Florida, who gave up some bad odd man breaks. William Nylander scored just 33 seconds into the game and it was 3-1 after a period, and 4-1 after two. In the third, the Panthers started their comeback, making it 4-3 before giving up a breakaway to Matthew Knies with six minutes left in the game, and losing 5-4. In Game 2, Florida was the better team in a back and forth game, but the Leafs still got the win at home, winning 4-3 in a game they were outshot 28-20. When the series shifted to Lauderdale for Game 3, the Panthers got the 5-4 win in overtime on Brad Marchand’s game winner, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit in the first six minutes of the game. Florida dominated Game 4, with Sergei Bobrovsky making 23 saves in a 2-0 shutout win, outshooting the Leafs 37-23. The Panthers dominated Game 5 on the road, crushing the Leafs 6-1, with Bobrovsky’s shutout (which would’ve been his second in a row) ending with just 1:06 left on a meaningless goal. It felt like in that game, the Panthers drained the will out of the Leafs at home. With the series back in Lauderdale for Game 6, I thought for sure it was over for Toronto, but the Leafs bounced back in very impressive fashion, with a slow, low event game, with Auston Matthews finally breaking through and getting the game winner 6:20 into the third period on the way to a 2-0 shutout win on the road for the Maple Leafs to force Game 7 with Joseph Woll making 22 saves in his shutout. Game 7 in Toronto was an embarrassment for the Leafs, as the Panthers dominated their way to the biggest Game 7 win in NHL history, winning 6-1 on the road to advance, outshooting the Leafs 34-20 and likely ending the Core Four era for Toronto.

I think Florida’s the much deeper team here, they hit harder, they have the better offense, and the best forecheck in the NHL. With that, I expect the Panthers to make their third straight Stanley Cup Finals appearance with a win in this series, likely in six games. I don’t think Carolina gets swept again this year, and it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if this series takes either five or seven games. I’ll take the Panthers to win the series for 2 units at a solid price at -125.

As I said, I don’t think the Hurricanes get swept this year, and do expect them to win at home either in Game 1 tonight or Game 2 on Thursday. I don’t love it enough to bet it though, so I’ll stay off a side tonight.

The overs went 2-1 in the regular season between these teams but the playoffs are a different animal and I expect the games in this series to trend under. Both teams have trended under this season, with the under in Hurricanes games going 47-37-8 and the under going 47-45-2 in Panthers games. I just think the styles these teams play both tend to lead to low scoring games. Both goalies, Andersen and Bobrovsky have been fantastic these playoffs. For Carolina, that very sound, man to man defense (which is quite boring to watch) limits shot chances. And then on the other side Florida’s forecheck is better than any team in the league and they have such a huge hard hitting defense. I’ll jump on the under tonight in Game 1 for a unit.

Series Bets

2u Panthers to win series (-125)

Game 1 Bets

1u Hurricanes/Panthers under 5.5 (-130)

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