It’s Scottie Scheffler vs. the field this week following his two wins in a row coming off the PGA Championship as the PGA Tour heads down to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7289 yards, seven Par 4s range from 400-450 yards, three of the Par 3s range from 175-200 yards, one of the Par 5s is reachable by the entire field and the other is reachable by longer hitters but the Par 5s are both some of the hardest Par 5s on Tour while being the easiest holes on the course, 84 bunkers, four water hazards in play on six holes, Bermuda fairways and rough, tight tree lined fairways with bunkers in play on pretty much every tee shot, rough isn’t too high but wirey so it’s tough to hit out of, harder than average fairways to hit (~57% vs. tour average ~62%), most golfers will go less than driver on a lot of holes (average driving distance 278 yards vs. tour average 284), plotters course where accuracy and shot placement matters more than distance with precision more important, a lot of doglegs with 7 of the 11 favoring a left to right ball flight, slightly below average GIR % (~64% vs. tour average ~66%), this course has the lowest GIR % inside 150 yards on tour, small pure bentgrass greens with some undulation, lot of bunkers around the green especially in front of them, weather plays a big factor here with the winning score fluctuating between -21 and -8 in the last 14 years, the greens were renovated two years ago and could be bouncier and faster than usual along with some bunkers being removed and some tee boxes being moved
Tournament Notes
- Formerly called the Fort Worth Invitational and the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and several other names before those
- This is typically an invitational sized field but is a bit expanded with a full field this season (as it was last season)
- The longest running course on the PGA Tour, having been played every year since 1946
- Experience and course history matter here, the winners of this event since 2001 have averaged seven appearances here prior to their win
- Only eight golfers in 70 years have gotten their maiden victory here (technically Davis Riley previously won the Zurich team event prior to winning here)
- Since Sergio won in 2001 at age 22, just Jordan Spieth in 2016, Daniel Berger in 2020, and Sam Burns in 2023 and Davis Riley last year were the only golfers under age 30 to win here
- Besides Justin Rose in 2018 (on his first time here), Daniel Berger in 2020 (T53 the year previous), Sam Burns in 2022 (hadn’t played since a T31 finish in 2019), and Emiliano Grillo in 2023 (who did have an 8th place finish two years prior and a 3rd place finish in 2018), and Davis Riley last year (who missed the cut the year before but finished 4th the year prior) every winner since 2014 has finished T15 or better the year previous here
- SG: Approach is more than twice as impactful than OTT and ATG for Top 10/Top 5 finishes, and 3x more impactful on the winner
- Any skill set could win here and a lot of plotters have won here before but there could be an advantage to bomb and gauge the course and tear it up
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, SG: ARG
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.7%), 125-150 yards (20.6%)
Corollary Courses
- Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
- Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open)
- Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
Field
134 golfers – Pretty lousy field strength with Scottie Scheffler vs. the field
Defending Champion: Davis Riley (-14)
Runner Up Last Year: Keegan Bradley, Scottie Scheffler (-9)
One and Done: Daniel Berger
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Daniel Berger
Players
Daniel Berger: 9900: +2200 – Has played really solid now that he’s healthy again, former winner here in 2020 in the first event out of the covid break with 45,23,20,1,53,MC finishes here, 33,11,3,21,30,20,15,25,12,2,MC,21,MC,2 finishes in his last 14 events, 3rd in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 111th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 105th in Proximity (125–150 yards), 27th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 42nd in SG: Around the Green, 46th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance
Mav McNealy: 9500: +3500 – His putter can get hot and he’s been solid T2G lately, 33,60,3,32,3,32,MC,MC,2,9,40,52,45,8,1,17,6,16 finishes in his last 18 events, 17,52,MC,20,32,42 finishes here, 42nd in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 24th in Good Drives, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 37th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 72nd in Proximity (125–150 yards), 23rd in Proximity (150–175 yards), 88th in SG: Around the Green, 26th in Putting, 43rd in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, 12th in Bogey Avoidance
Aaron Rai: 9100: +3300 – Playing well lately where he’s been great tee to green, coming off gaining 8.2 strokes on approach last week at the PGA Championship, 19,23,38,27,MC,14,11,4,37,40,MC,15,23,43,16,1,75,4,7,2 finishes in his last 20 events, 32,12,68 finishes here, 6th in Approach, 23rd in SG: OTT, 1st in Good Drives, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 104th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 78th in Proximity (125–150 yards), 39th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 69th in SG: Around the Green, 79th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 35th in Birdie+ Gained, 42nd in Bogey Avoidance
JJ Spaun: 8400: +5500 – Has only lost strokes on approach in 2 of his last 30 events, 37,17,42,50,MC,2,31,2,34,33,15,29,3,MC,30,6,34,25,26,3,9 finishes in his last 21 events, MC,63,MC finishes here, 5th in Approach, 47th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Good Drives, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 46th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 6th in Proximity (125–150 yards), 103rd in Proximity (150–175 yards), 104th in SG: Around the Green, 56th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 27th in Birdie+ Gained, 26th in Bogey Avoidance
Ryan Gerard: 7900: +7000 – First time playing this event, playing great lately with 8,42,MC,27,2,9,57,42,MC,25,17,15,51,37 finishes this season, 15th in Approach, 45th in SG: OTT, 47th in Good Drives, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 31st in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 54th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 13th in Proximity (125–150 yards), 10th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 52nd in SG: Around the Green, 31st in Putting, 74th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained, 30th in Bogey Avoidance
Andrew Putnam: 6700: +19800 – Hasn’t been great lately but his stats line up nicely and he pops in my model, coming off a 15th place finish at The CJ Cup earlier this month after 3 missed cuts with 15,MC,MC,MC,11,49,25,32 finishes in his last eight events, MC,29,15,MC,MC,3,20 finishes here, 14th in Approach, 127th in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 79th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 29th in Proximity (125–150 yards), 16th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 10th in SG: Around the Green, 17th in Putting, 96th in Opportunities Gained, 102nd in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, worth a few dollars as a huge long shot, will also take his T5
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- On DK Showdown slates, you’re better off stacking guys that start on the back nine for the wrap around of Holes 17,18,1,2 for 3+ birdie streak
- Scottie could definitely win here for the third event in a row, but I just can’t get there with him at only +240 despite him having 2,3,2 finishes here the last three years
Bets
Outrights
.5u Daniel Berger (+2200)
.4u Aaron Rai (+3300)
.4u Mav McNealy (+3500)
.2u JJ Spaun (+5500)
.2u Ryan Gerard (+7000)
.1u Andrew Putnam (+19800)
T5s (Including ties)
.1u Andrew Putnam (+2200)
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