This season’s Western Conference Finals should be fantastic, in a rematch of last year with the 2 seed in the Central Division, Dallas Stars facing the 2 seed in the Pacific Division, Edmonton Oilers. These teams play very different hockey and it should set up a solid series after the Oilers won it in six games last year.

During the regular season this year, the Stars went 2-1 against the Oilers. The Stars opened the season series with a solid 4-1 win at home on October 19th. These teams didn’t play again until March, with the Oilers answering back on March 8th with a 5-4 win at home, getting out to a 5-1 lead through two periods before the Dallas comeback effort fell short. The Stars answered with a win on the road on March 26th, winning 4-3. They got out to a 4-0 lead through two with a Jason Robertson hat trick, and this time it was the Edmonton comeback falling short in a game they outshot the Stars 44-24.

The Dallas Stars were very good this year, finishing in second place in the Central Division with a 50-26-6 record, ten points behind the President’s Trophy winning Jets and four points ahead of the Avs for home ice in the first round. They made the big move at the deadline of acquiring Rantanen, and they recently got Tyler Seguin back in the lineup, who was out a majority of the year with an injury. Dallas ended their season horribly, coasting for the last few week, heading into the playoffs on a seven game losing streak after a 5-1 loss in Nashville on Wednesday, and getting outshot in their last 13 games.

The Stars were very good on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they were the third-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 3.35 goals per game on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.25) and the 16th-most high-danger shots in the league. The Dallas power play was around league average, ranking 17th at 22%. Matt Duchene (82 points, 52 assists) and Jason Robertson (35 goals) led the Stars this year.

Dallas allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the NHL this season, an average of 2.71 per game on an average of 29 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 16th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.06) and the 17th-most high-danger shots, ranking right in the middle of the league. The Stars had the fourth-best penalty kill in the NHL at 82%. Jake Oettinger was once again one of the best goalies in the league, with 36 wins, a 2.59 GAA, .909 save percentage, and two shutouts.

The first round series between the Stars and the Colorado Avalanche was spectacular, the best series of the first round. The Avs started the series hot, winning Game 1 5-1 in a game that was much closer than the score to take home ice in the series. The Stars answered with a 4-3 overtime win at home in Game 2, then took home ice back with a 2-1 overtime win on the road in Game 4. Colorado answered big, dominating Game 4 at home to tie the series with a 4-0 shutout at home in a game that saw MacKenzie Blackwood get his first career playoff shutout and Gabe Landeskog score his first goal in almost three years. Dallas answered with a dominating 6-2 shutout at home in Game 6. In Game 6 the Stars led 4-3 going into the third period with a four goal second period, but the Avs came alive in the third period, scoring four unanswered to win it 7-4 and force Game 7. The Avalanche looked in control in Game 7, with a 2-0 lead early in the third period before Mikko Rantanen put together an incredible performance against his former team, with a hat trick in the third period, along with the go-ahead goal from Wyatt Johnston for the Stars to win the series with a 4-2 win at home.

In the second round, the Stars bounced the Jets in six games. The Jets didn’t play well in Game 1 at home, losing 3-2 on a Mikko Rantanen natural hat trick. They bounced back nicely in Game 2, tying the series with a 4-0 shutout win for Hellebuyck at home. In Game 3 on Sunday, the Stars answered with a big three goal third period, winning 5-2 at home. Dallas took a commanding 3-1 series lead in Game 4 on Tuesday with Mikael Granlund getting a hat trick at home in a 3-1 win. Winnipeg answered back again though in Game 5 at home in spectacular fashion, with Connor Hellebuyck making 22 saves for a 4-0 shutout win at home to extend the series as his Jets outshot the Stars 35-22. An emotional Game 6 ended in overtime, as Thomas Harley broke the 1-1 tie, 1:33 into OT to end the series for the Stars with a 2-1 win in a tight, solid game to defeat the President’s Trophy winners.

The Edmonton Oilers, after making a run to an incredible Stanley Cup Finals last year, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to lose in seven games, they struggled with a bunch of key injuries this season, with Connor McDavid and MVP-candidate (and my pick to win the Hart Trophy this year) Leon Draisaitl, both missing time through the season. Despite that, they still made the playoffs in the third seed in the Pacific with a 48-29-5 record, five points ahead of the Flames, and four behind LA. After getting healthy they closes the season pretty well, with four wins in the third five games, winning with a 3-0 shutout in San Jose in their last game of the regular season.

Edmonton was eleventh in scoring this season, averaging 3.16 goals per game on a league-leading average of 32 shots per game. They’ve generated the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.34) and the tenth-most high-danger shots in the league. Although they took a step back from last year when they had the most lethal power play in NHL history, the power play was still good for the Oilers this year, scoring on 23.7% of their chances, the eleventh-best in the league. Despite injuries, Leon Draisaitl led the NHL with 52 goals this season, and was third in the league with 106 points. Connor McDavid led Edmonton in assists with 74 this year.

The Oilers were in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing an average of 2.87 goals per game, 14th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.76), only behind the Kings and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. Edmonton killed off 78.2% of their penalties, ranking 16th in the NHL. The goaltending for the Oilers struggled a bit again this year. Stuart Skinner had 26 wins, a 2.81 GAA, a .896 save percentage, and three shutouts with Cal Pickard backing him up with 22 wins, a 2.71 GAA, and a .900 save percentage. Not great for either of those guys.

Besides in Game 5 on the road, I thought the Oilers were severely outplayed in the first round and likely should have been swept by LA, but the Kings essentially beat themselves, and Edmonton came back from a 2-0 series deficit to win it in six with four straight wins coming into the second round. Game 1 was insane, with the Kings blowing a 4-0 lead, crumbling it away before giving the Oilers a 6-5 loss with 42 seconds left in the game after Connor McDavid tied up the game with 1:28 left. LA was the team with the big third period in Game 2 at home, dominating with a 6-2 win. The Kings crumbled late again in Game 3 on the road, with the Oilers scoring four straight with less than seven minutes left to win 7-4. Evan Bouchard put together the comeback for the Oilers in Game 4 at home, scoring the game tying goal with 29 seconds left in regulation with Leon Draisaitl winning it in overtime on the power play. Edmonton finally dominated Game 5, outshooting the Kings 46-22 to win it 3-1. The Oilers played well again in Game 6, getting the 6-4 win to close out the series.

I picked against Edmonton once again in the second round against my Vegas Golden Knights, who from the first week of the season were my pick to win the Stanley Cup this year. Boy was I wrong there though, as the Oilers knocked off the Knights in five games. The Oilers came back from an 0-2 deficit in the first period of Game 1 and were the better team on their way to their 4-2 win. In Game 2, Vegas was the much better team in a back and forth fun game. Adin Hill was pretty bad early in Game 2, while Cal Pickard played his best game I’ve ever seen. Hill was great late, and the Knights killed off a five minute penalty which was huge in overtime and after that I thought they’d win for sure, but it was Connor McDavid setting up Leon Draisaitl for the game winner in OT after a non-call that should’ve put Vegas on the power play, but instead the series went to Edmonton with the Oilers holding a 2-0 series lead. In Game 3, Vegas took control and were the better team in an incredible game to make it 2-1 in the series with a 4-3 win. The first period saw four goals with Corey Perry scoring twice to start the game with Vegas answering back with three straight goals to take the lead. Connor McDavid tied the game up with 3:02 left in regulation, and with 0.3 seconds on a horrible play by Stuart Skinner coming out of the net, original misfit Reilly Smith threw the puck at the net, and it deflected in by Leon Draisaitl for the game winner. The Oilers bounced right back in Game 4 though, scoring just 1:27 into the game with Stuart Skinner making 23 saves in an Oilers 3-0 shutout win. Game 5 in Vegas went into overtime scoreless, with an unlikely game winner rom Kasperi Kapanen, 7:19 into overtime to knock off the Knights with a 24 save shutout from Stuart Skinner.

Here I am again picking against the Oilers in this series. I just think the Stars are the far better team here. Obviously Edmonton has two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but besides those two guys, Dallas is better in every position. They’re far deeper of a team with four lines making an impact every night, have much better defense, and the goaltending from Jake Oettinger is night and day to the inconsistency of Stuart Skinner and Cal Pickard. I’ll take the Stars to win the series for 3 units. I think they get it done in six games, with Connor and Leon probably taking over a game or two. I considered the over 5.5 games on the series, but at -210, that’s absolutely not worth it.

Expecting Dallas to win the series, I like them to win Game 1 tonight and will take them for 1.5 units at home.

I feel like the totals in this series are a toss up. Both teams trended under through this season, with the under in Oilers games going 48-42-3 and in Stars games going 49-39-7. The over went 2-1 in the regular season games between these teams. In the first round, both teams trended over while they both trended under in the second round. I’ll stay off of the total tonight in Game 1 tonight and see how it plays out. 

Series Bets

3u Stars to win series (-110)

Game 1 Bets

1.5u Stars ML (-130)

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