“Jack’s Place”
This week the PGA Tour heads to their last signature event of the season, the Memorial Tournament at Jack’s Place, Muirfield Village in Columbus, Ohio. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7569 yards, Jack Nicklaus designed, the Par 5s are reachable in two but have the second lowest going for the green percentage on tour besides Colonial, six of the seven most difficult holes are Par 4s between 450-500 yards, bent grass fairways and greens, tree lined easy to hit fairways (~68%) with deep fairway bunkers that are penal (only about 40% of golfers that hit fairway bunkers make par), the fairways get more narrow around the 300 yard mark, 68 bunkers, 13 water hazards that are in play on eleven holes, water is placed in tricky spots with creeks running through the course with some on entire holes, less than driver course that favors placement for approach shots and this course ranks in bottom 10 courses on tour in driving distance but high driving accuracy vs. tour average (~68% vs. 62%), difficult to hit out of thick 3-4.5 inch rough, longest proximity inside 100 yards from the rough of any course on tour, harder than average greens to hit (~61% vs. tour average 66%), scrambling is very difficult at this course and top five most difficult on tour (~53% vs. tour average 58%), second lowest birdie+ % from the rough on tour, extremely fast tiny greens with heavy undulation, despite those greens they have the lowest three putt rate of any course on tour and its in the top five of 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet, many of the greens slope back to front, water and greenside bunkers in play (this course has the longest proximity on tour from shots out of green side bunkers and they’re the hardest on tour), rain softening the course can make it play much easier, in 2016 at -1 was the only year since 2003 that the cut line was under par
Lots of renovation were done to the course before the 2021 season with all of the grass on the fairways and greens redone, adjusted bunkers, changed contours to the greens, added a bunch of new trees and new tee boxes that when maxed out can lengthen the course around 100 yards. The only significant changes to these is the greens and the resodding of the greens will make them very firm for the first few years. The new contours of the greens makes course history slightly less of a factor since reading the greens is newer for everyone.
Tournament Notes
- Cut is 50 and ties
- Approach here is 3.5x more important here than SG: OTT (most courses it is around 2.5x) and SG: ARG is actually more significant than SG:OTT here
- Prior to Billy Horschel in 2022, the last 14 winners here had ranked in the top 10 for the season in SG: Approach
- In 2021, Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw with a six stroke lead after Saturday’s round with a bullshit positive COVID test even though he was completely healthy. He would have easily won this tournament by a touchdown if that wasn’t the case and went on to win the US Open two weeks later
- 15 of the last 17 winners here ranked T10 in Approach for the week
- In 2022 5 of the T6 finishes finished in the T10 in Approach. In 2021 5 of the T5 and 6 of the T10 finished in the T10 in Approach
- The 2020 Workday Championship was also held here the week prior to the Memorial with a slightly easier setup, which Morikawa won
- Americans have won here ten of the past 14 years
- Six of the last ten years this tournament was decided by a playoff
- Hideki Matsuyama in 2014 was the last player to win his first time here
- Justin Rose in 2010 was the last player to win here who missed a cut the previous year
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Proximity 150-175 yards, Proximity 175-200 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (22.6%), 175-200 yards (21.9%)
Note: 175-200 yards range might be more important with the lengthening of the course and the more difficult holes on the course being longer Par 4s that leave a longer approach shot
Field
72 golfers – Signature event with a very strong invitational field
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-8)
Runner Up Last Year: Collin Morikawa (7)
One and Done: Viktor Hovland
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Conners, Fleetwood, Straka, Hovland
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 13300: +295 – Best golfer in the world, playing fantastic golf right now with two wins in his last three starts with 4,1,1,8,4,2,20,11,3,25,9,1,33,4,7,1 finishes in his last 16 events, defending champion with 1,3,3,22 finishes here and an MC here at the Workday in 2020,1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 15th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 4th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 2nd in Proximity (200+ yards), 34th in Sand Saves, 11th in SG: ARG, 10th in Putting, 1st in GIRs Gained, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, one of the few weeks I’ll bet him (cashed the last time when he won at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Tommy Fleetwood: 9400: +3000 – He’s playing fantastic golf lately especially tee to green, 20,MC,MC finishes here, 4,41,4,7,21,62,16,14,11,5,22,20,5,22 finishes in his last 14 events, 24th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 4th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 46th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 26th in Proximity (200+ yards), 35th in Sand Saves, 2nd in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 32nd in GIRs Gained, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Bogey Avoidance, I know he’s never won in the US but I can see him finally crack through here
Corey Conners: 9100: +2500 – Playing great golf this year despite not winning and pops in my model this week, 20,MC,13,53,22,65 finishes here along with a 39th at the Workday here in 2020, 19,11,49,8,18,8,6,3,24,74,65,MC,5,7,22,50,25,10 finishes in his last 18 events, 10th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 9th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 13th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 19th in Proximity (200+ yards), 62nd in Sand Saves, 30th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 3rd in GIRs Gained, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 8800: +4800 – Has won twice already this year (I cashed in on one of those) and lines up great statistically, MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15 finishes in his last 14 events, 5,16,45,MC,61 finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 38th in SG: OTT, 25th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 8th in Proximity (150–175 yards), 7th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 27th in Proximity (200+ yards), 40th in Sand Saves, 63rd in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 4th in GIRs Gained, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (15%)
Putting (5%)
GIRs Gained (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ll be looking at SG: Approach leaders live after Round 1 and 2 for Live Betting opportunities with how important that stat is on this course.
- Treat this like a no cut event with less than 20 golfers getting cut
- I hit the winner here the last two years in a row on Scheffler and Hovland
Bets
Outrights
4u Scottie Scheffler (+295)
.4u Corey Conners (+2500)
.4u Tommy Fleetwood (+3000)
.3u Sepp Straka (+4800)
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