The Stanley Cup Finals this season gives us an incredible rematch of last year as the Edmonton Oilers look to get their revenge on the defending Cup Champion Florida Panthers, who beat them in seven games in the Cup Finals last year. These teams both have been dominant throughout the playoffs, and I think this year can be even better than last year.

Last season, the Panthers got out to a 3-0 series lead, but blew that completely, as Edmonton tied up the series to force Game 7 before the Panthers won it anyway. In Game 1, the Panthers got a 3-0 shutout win at home. They followed it up with a 4-1 win at home in Game 2. Florida made it a 3-0 series, getting out to a lead early on their way to a 4-3 win on the road in Game 3. Game 4 though, Connor McDavid took over the series with the Oilers having their backs up against elimination. They dominated Game 4 at home, blowing out Florida 8-1 at home. The Oilers won 5-3 when the series shifted back to Florida for Game 5. They once again dominated with a 5-1 win at home to force Game 7. Then in Game 7, Sam Reinhart scored the game winning goal for the Panthers to win the Stanley Cup at home for the first time in franchise history.

In defense of their Cup win last year, the Panthers won both regular season games between these teams this season. In a tight game in Edmonton on December 16th, the Panthers erased a 4-2 deficit with Carter Verhaeghe scoring the game winner with less than 7 minutes left to win 6-5 on the road. The Panthers were the better team at home in the second game on February 27th, another close game, winning 4-3 at home to complete the season sweep.

The Edmonton Oilers struggled with a bunch of key injuries this season, with Connor McDavid and MVP-candidate (and my pick to win the Hart Trophy this year) Leon Draisaitl, both missing time through the season. Despite that, they still made the playoffs in the third seed in the Pacific with a 48-29-5 record, five points ahead of the Flames, and four behind LA. After getting healthy they closes the season pretty well, with four wins in the third five games, winning with a 3-0 shutout in San Jose in their last game of the regular season.

Edmonton was eleventh in scoring this season, averaging 3.16 goals per game on a league-leading average of 32 shots per game. They’ve generated the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.34) and the tenth-most high-danger shots in the league. Although they took a step back from last year when they had the most lethal power play in NHL history, the power play was still good for the Oilers this year, scoring on 23.7% of their chances, the eleventh-best in the league. Despite injuries, Leon Draisaitl led the NHL with 52 goals this season, and was third in the league with 106 points. Connor McDavid led Edmonton in assists with 74 this year.

The Oilers were in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing an average of 2.87 goals per game, 14th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.76), only behind the Kings and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. Edmonton killed off 78.2% of their penalties, ranking 16th in the NHL. The goaltending for the Oilers struggled a bit again this year. Stuart Skinner had 26 wins, a 2.81 GAA, a .896 save percentage, and three shutouts with Cal Pickard backing him up with 22 wins, a 2.71 GAA, and a .900 save percentage. Not great for either of those guys.

Besides in Game 5 on the road, I thought the Oilers were severely outplayed in the first round and likely should have been swept by LA, but the Kings essentially beat themselves, and Edmonton came back from a 2-0 series deficit to win it in six with four straight wins coming into the second round. Game 1 was insane, with the Kings blowing a 4-0 lead, crumbling it away before giving the Oilers a 6-5 loss with 42 seconds left in the game after Connor McDavid tied up the game with 1:28 left. LA was the team with the big third period in Game 2 at home, dominating with a 6-2 win. The Kings crumbled late again in Game 3 on the road, with the Oilers scoring four straight with less than seven minutes left to win 7-4. Evan Bouchard put together the comeback for the Oilers in Game 4 at home, scoring the game tying goal with 29 seconds left in regulation with Leon Draisaitl winning it in overtime on the power play. Edmonton finally dominated Game 5, outshooting the Kings 46-22 to win it 3-1. The Oilers played well again in Game 6, getting the 6-4 win to close out the series.

I picked against Edmonton once again in the second round against my Vegas Golden Knights, who from the first week of the season were my pick to win the Stanley Cup this year. Boy was I wrong there though, as the Oilers knocked off the Knights in five games. The Oilers came back from an 0-2 deficit in the first period of Game 1 and were the better team on their way to their 4-2 win. In Game 2, Vegas was the much better team in a back and forth fun game. Adin Hill was pretty bad early in Game 2, while Cal Pickard played his best game I’ve ever seen. Hill was great late, and the Knights killed off a five minute penalty which was huge in overtime and after that I thought they’d win for sure, but it was Connor McDavid setting up Leon Draisaitl for the game winner in OT after a non-call that should’ve put Vegas on the power play, but instead the series went to Edmonton with the Oilers holding a 2-0 series lead. In Game 3, Vegas took control and were the better team in an incredible game to make it 2-1 in the series with a 4-3 win. The first period saw four goals with Corey Perry scoring twice to start the game with Vegas answering back with three straight goals to take the lead. Connor McDavid tied the game up with 3:02 left in regulation, and with 0.3 seconds on a horrible play by Stuart Skinner coming out of the net, original misfit Reilly Smith threw the puck at the net, and it deflected in by Leon Draisaitl for the game winner. The Oilers bounced right back in Game 4 though, scoring just 1:27 into the game with Stuart Skinner making 23 saves in an Oilers 3-0 shutout win. Game 5 in Vegas went into overtime scoreless, with an unlikely game winner rom Kasperi Kapanen, 7:19 into overtime to knock off the Knights with a 24 save shutout from Stuart Skinner.

Yet again, in the Western Conference Finals I picked against the Oilers, saying the Stars were far deeper of a team with four lines making an impact every night, have much better defense, and the goaltending from Jake Oettinger is night and day to the inconsistency of Stuart Skinner and Cal Pickard. But I was wrong again, as Edmonton defeated the Stars in five games to setup the rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup Finals once again. Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was pretty insane as the Oilers pretty much dominated the first two periods of that game, but completely collapsed in the third period. They gave up five straight unanswered goals in the third period, not able to stay out of the box, allowing three in a row on the power play in the first 5:58 of the third to blow a 3-1 lead as Dallas poured it on to win 6-3. The Oilers answered right back in Game 2 on the road in more impressive fashion, with a dominant 3-0 shutout for Stuart Skinner, who made 25 saves to tie up the series. The Stars were generating decent scoring chances, but not shots on goal. The Oilers now lead this series, getting a dominant 6-1 win at home in Game 3 on Sunday afternoon, scoring four unanswered in the last 20:19 of the game and Stuart Skinner making 33 saves on the 34 shots he saw. Game 4 was close, but the Oilers pulled away with a 4-1 win at home, capping the game off with two empty netters and outshooting Dallas 33-29. The Oilers never trailed in a pretty dominant 6-3 win on the road to cap off the Western Conference Finals. They got out to an early 3-0 lead in the first period, with Pete DeBour pulling his star goaltender Jake Oettinger just 7:09 into the game after allowing two goals on the first two shots of the game. Dallas got back within one goal twice, but the Oilers kept their foot on the gas, winning 6-3 to advance back to the Finals, looking for revenge on the Panthers that beat them last year.

The Panthers had a lot of up and downs this year after winning the Cup last season and going to the Cup Finals the past two years. They finished the season four points back from the Lightning and a point ahead of Ottawa with a 47-31-4 record. Florida dealt with injuries to several key players, including Matthew Tkachuk, but everyone was all ready to go when the playoffs started. They got their stud defenseman Aaron Ekblad back to start the playoffs as well, who missed time due to a suspension for PEDs. At the trade deadline, the Cup Champs made the most surprising move, bringing in Brad Marchand from the Bruins. Full rat line coming in the playoffs of him, Tkachuk, and Bennett the Menace.

Florida’s offense wasn’t all that special this year, averaging 3 goals per game, 15th-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.6 shots per game, the third-most in the league. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.45) and the most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers scored on 23.5% of their power play chances, ranking 13th in the NHL. Sam Reinhart (81 points, 39 goals) and Aleksander Barkov (51 assists) led Florida in scoring this year.

The Panthers were really solid on the back end with their hard-hitting defense. They allowed an average of 2.72 goals per game, the seventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 26.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.84) and the eleventh-fewest high-danger shots. Florida killed off 80.7% of their penalties, ranking tenth in the league. Sergei Bobrovsky was pretty good in goal this year, with 33 wins, five shutouts, a 2.44 GAA, and a .906 save percentage.

The Battle of Florida in the first round was largely disappointing. I thought the Lightning would give their rivals a series, but the Panthers dominated it, besides Game 3 on the road, winning the series in five games. Game 1 on the road was a blowout win for the Panthers, winning 6-2 in Tampa. They followed it up with a 2-0 Bobrovsky shutout to go back to Sunrise with a 2-0 series lead. In a must-win Game 3, the Lightning got their first and only win of the series, scoring three times in the third period for a 5-1 win in a game that was just 2-1 going into the third. The Panthers had a great third period of their own in Game 4 at home, erasing a 2-1 deficit with 3:47 left in regulation with two goals in eleven seconds followed by an empty netter to win it 4-2. The Cup Champs scored three unanswered to win the series in Game 5 with a 6-3 victory on the road.

The second round for Florida was pretty solid as they took seven games to defeat the #1 seed in the Atlantic, Toronto Maple Leafs. Game 1 of the series was pretty fun, with the Panthers comeback falling short. The Leafs capitalized on some bad defense early for Florida, who gave up some bad odd man breaks. William Nylander scored just 33 seconds into the game and it was 3-1 after a period, and 4-1 after two. In the third, the Panthers started their comeback, making it 4-3 before giving up a breakaway to Matthew Knies with six minutes left in the game, and losing 5-4. In Game 2, Florida was the better team in a back and forth game, but the Leafs still got the win at home, winning 4-3 in a game they were outshot 28-20. When the series shifted to Lauderdale for Game 3, the Panthers got the 5-4 win in overtime on Brad Marchand’s game winner, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit in the first six minutes of the game. Florida dominated Game 4, with Sergei Bobrovsky making 23 saves in a 2-0 shutout win, outshooting the Leafs 37-23. The Panthers dominated Game 5 on the road, crushing the Leafs 6-1, with Bobrovsky’s shutout (which would’ve been his second in a row) ending with just 1:06 left on a meaningless goal. It felt like in that game, the Panthers drained the will out of the Leafs at home. With the series back in Lauderdale for Game 6, I thought for sure it was over for Toronto, but the Leafs bounced back in very impressive fashion, with a slow, low event game, with Auston Matthews finally breaking through and getting the game winner 6:20 into the third period on the way to a 2-0 shutout win on the road for the Maple Leafs to force Game 7 with Joseph Woll making 22 saves in his shutout. Game 7 in Toronto was an embarrassment for the Leafs, as the Panthers dominated their way to the biggest Game 7 win in NHL history, winning 6-1 on the road to advance, outshooting the Leafs 34-20 and likely ending the Core Four era for Toronto.

In the Eastern Conference Finals, it really looked like Florida was going to sweep the Carolina Hurricanes again this season, but the Canes avoided the sweep, with the Panthers winning in five games to advance to their third straight Stanley Cup Finals. The Canes weren’t as awful as their 5-2 loss in Game 1 looked, with a fantastic performance in goal from Bobrovsky in a game they outshot the Panthers 33-20 and generated an expected goal rate of 3.73 to Florida’s 2.2. In Game 2 on Wednesday night though, the Hurricanes got completely dominated in every facet of the game, getting blown out 5-0 at home to go down 2-0 in the series, only generating 17 shots on goal and having Freddy Andersen chased out of the net. Andersen got benched for Game 3 on Saturday night, which was close through the first two periods, tied 1-1 going into the third, but then the Panthers poured it on, scoring five in a row in the first 10:37 of the third to win 6-2 at home to put Carolina on the brink of elimination. In their do or die Game 4 on Monday night, the Hurricanes held off elimination, locking down the Panthers in Freddy Andersen’s return with a 3-0 shutout win. I thought Carolina played really well in that game, which was actually a lot closer, with two of the Canes goals coming on the empty net. Especially early, the Hurricanes dominated the start of that game, but I thought after the goal, Florida started pressing way more than they did early and had some good chances late to knot it up at 1, just not getting off the perfect shot or Andersen making the save.  The Panthers bounced right back in a really fun Game 5. Sebastian Aho put the Hurricanes up 2-0 at the end of the first period, but Florida came storming back, scoring three in the second period to take the lead. After Seth Jarvis tied it up at 3-3 for Carolina in the third, Carter Verhaeghe answered back with the eventual game winner with 7:39 remaining in regulation off an insane pass by Sasha Barkov, before Sam Bennett capped off the series with an empty netter to win the game 5-3.

This is such a tough series for me to pick, easily the hardest pick (wrong or right) for me of the playoffs. I think the Panthers are the far deeper team here, you look past McDavid and Draisaitl, who are two of the best players in the NHL, the third and fourth lines for Florida blow Edmonton’s out of the water. The Panthers defense is better and Bobrovsky’s easily the better goalie in this series. But the talent level and drive of those two guys could completely turn not only a game around, but a series, or even a season. We saw the fight that they put in last year to turn the Cup Finals into a series when they were down 3-0. Connor McDavid deserves his Cup. I’d still lean the Panthers win back to back Stanley Cups and lift Lord Stanley again, but this is going to be a tighter series from the start, and honestly, I’ll be happy as a hockey fan with either result. The last two rematches in the Finals were in 2009, where the Penguins got their revenge on Detroit to win Crosby’s first Cup after losing to them previous year, and Wayne Gretzky and the Oilers getting his Cup in 1984 against the Islanders after losing to that dynasty the previous year. I’m going to stay off a side in these playoffs and bet it game by game from a winners standpoint. That said, this series is absolutely going at least six games, regardless of who wins, so with that, I’ll place my biggest series bet of the playoffs here, laying the -205 for 4 units on the series to go over 5.5 games.

I do like the Oilers to win Game 1 at home tomorrow night, since they know that with having home ice they can’t fall back early in the series like they did last year. I’ll take Edmonton for a unit.

The totals in these games feel like complete crapshoots to me. Both of these teams trended under in the regular season, with the under going 44-35-3 in Oilers regular season games and 44-36-2 in Panthers regular season games. They’ve also both trended over though in these playoffs, with the over going 12-5 in Panthers games and 10-6 in Oilers games. Last year the over went 4-3 in the Cup Finals between these teams. I’d slightly lean the overs, expecting this series to get physical and heated, with both teams having great offenses, and the shaky goaltending for Edmonton at times, but I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 tomorrow and evaluate it as the series goes on.

This is gonna be incredible, let’s end this season with an amazing rematch for these Stanley Cup Finals.

Series Bets

4u Stanley Cup Finals over 5.5 games (-205)

Game 1 Bets

1u Oilers ML (-130)

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